A-H economy by 1918 was in shambles and will need help to rebuild and sorry but expecting something from the nation of the entente is out of the question Italy and France had litteraly nothing to give (and frankly anythig the French have will be taken first by Germany), the Russian are in a civil war so doubt that will give something of their repairment and you can't coerce the British to give nothing, so remain Germany but not only they have their own problem this mean more influence for Berlin. Not considering the already influene they have as frankly the A-H was dependent of German help during the war and are not debt that are left unpaid expecially when we are talking about your neighbourgh and big economic patner and he also the one that dictate what you get out of the war (expcet the part relative at Serbia, Montenegro and Albania that are the A-H main show...but that will be fun to occupy like Iraq after the 2003 invasion)
Would a quick CP victory have extended the life of Austria-Hungary?
- Thread starter Parmenion
- Start date
Britain managed to lose its empire in the course of winning two world wars. The first world war specifically forced it to grant the dominions almost total independence and made the Irish push for devolution/home rule into a fight that caused Britain to spin off a large chunk of the then UK as a mostly independent country. So no not every victor weathered the storm IOTL.
Plausibility notwithstanding, what would the breakup of Austria-Hungary even look like in a CP victory scenario? Germany in any case would have a large say in the matter. I can imagine what happens to Cisleithania -- domestic pressure from pan-nationalists forces Germany to annex Austria and the Sudetenland (with the rest of Bohemia being incorporated as well or turned into a protectorate), and Galicia divided between Poland and Ukraine if it hasn't been already. Dalmatia is given to a newly independent Croatia, which I doubt Hungary would be able to hold onto. It's the rest of Transleithania that I'm unsure of. I can't see the Hungarians demanding anything less than complete territorial integrity, though I'm sure the Romanians, Serbians, Slovakians, etc. have other plans. Does Germany have any incentive to prop up a united Hungarian kingdom or do they break it up in a sort of controlled demolition? If it's the latter, then what new independent states do we see emerge?
It’s getting old saying it but Austria was not some house of cards just waiting to die at moments notice. National tensions were low save the Hungarian part. The economy was booming. Wages, even in newly acquired and poor areas like Bosnia were higher than that of Italy. The more urbanized and developed area they were higher. Austria had the most progressive minority rights in Europe at the time. All successor states were multi ethnic. It took Austria losing the cream of its troops and youth in Galicia at the start of the war then stumbling around decapitated for 3 years as a consequence, with Hungarians giving a middle finger to the empire and starting deprivation and war profiteering including blocking food deliveries, it took entente efforts to rile up the populations into nationalist fervors, and even then the state functioned for 4 years of greatest conflict in the world. It’s most decorated troops for Bravery were Bosniaks. Future leader of independent Poland fought under AH auspices. It goes on and on.
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Austria-Hungary outlasted the Russian Empire during the Great War. A lot of people assume that their collapse was inevitable, but I'm not sure that's true. Instead, there's a good chance that Austria-Hungary would gradually extend greater representation to the ethnic minorities within their borders under overall Hapsburg leadership.
I don't know why everyone is talking about 1918 victory, when the OP clearly states the war is over by 1915.
Let's say literally everything goes right for the CP. Like so:
- Conrad falls out of favor after the annexation of Bosnia, as shortcomings of the army are highlighted despite the quick victory.
- New Chief of Staff implements some reforms and the war plans with Russia are scrapped for a more defensive one in Galicia, with the overall plan focusing on Russia before Serbia
- Early 1914 fight do not see the heavy losses on the AH side as OTL, but Russian headlong attacks into Galicia are more crippling
- Schlieffen goes as planned, Miracle of the Marne does not happen, Paris is either taken or comes in range of German heavy guns and rendered useless as a logistic hub
- Race to the sea won by Germany as no forces are transferred to the East
- Tannenberg happens as OTL, Russian army is completely thrashed on both North and South
- Western Front devolves into trench warfare, French counterattack to dislodge the Germans from Paris fails, France collapses
- Britain retreats from the continent, but stays in the fight, trying to enforce a blockade
- Bulgaria joins the CP, opens new front in Serbia (a very silent front with minor skirmishes so far at best)
- Early 1915 an ATL Gorlice-Tarnów happens, unraveling Russian lines, Russia informs Britain they will sue for peace
- German and AH forces transfer forces to Serbia, joint German-AH-Bulgarian offensive takes place over the summer, Serbia collapses, government cannot escape, capitulates
- Romania joins the CP
- Russia signs an armistice as there is no political will after Serbia's fall
- Britain also comes to the table, war officially over by September 1915
Under these conditions we are looking at a very different Europe, where the idea of minor nation states is not exactly feasible. Any nationalist elements in AH would push for reform rather than independence, and it might drift towards a Federal system over the next few decades, but definitely no collapse. The Habsburgs reign supreme, Franz Josef is a great victor, Karl takes the throne in a much less tumultuous time. The common struggle of the various nationalities in the army during the war is probably highly mythicized and used for propaganda to rally them around the flag. In short, the old order prevails, small nation states are not a very inviting possibility in a Europe still ruled by huge empires.
Let's say literally everything goes right for the CP. Like so:
- Conrad falls out of favor after the annexation of Bosnia, as shortcomings of the army are highlighted despite the quick victory.
- New Chief of Staff implements some reforms and the war plans with Russia are scrapped for a more defensive one in Galicia, with the overall plan focusing on Russia before Serbia
- Early 1914 fight do not see the heavy losses on the AH side as OTL, but Russian headlong attacks into Galicia are more crippling
- Schlieffen goes as planned, Miracle of the Marne does not happen, Paris is either taken or comes in range of German heavy guns and rendered useless as a logistic hub
- Race to the sea won by Germany as no forces are transferred to the East
- Tannenberg happens as OTL, Russian army is completely thrashed on both North and South
- Western Front devolves into trench warfare, French counterattack to dislodge the Germans from Paris fails, France collapses
- Britain retreats from the continent, but stays in the fight, trying to enforce a blockade
- Bulgaria joins the CP, opens new front in Serbia (a very silent front with minor skirmishes so far at best)
- Early 1915 an ATL Gorlice-Tarnów happens, unraveling Russian lines, Russia informs Britain they will sue for peace
- German and AH forces transfer forces to Serbia, joint German-AH-Bulgarian offensive takes place over the summer, Serbia collapses, government cannot escape, capitulates
- Romania joins the CP
- Russia signs an armistice as there is no political will after Serbia's fall
- Britain also comes to the table, war officially over by September 1915
Under these conditions we are looking at a very different Europe, where the idea of minor nation states is not exactly feasible. Any nationalist elements in AH would push for reform rather than independence, and it might drift towards a Federal system over the next few decades, but definitely no collapse. The Habsburgs reign supreme, Franz Josef is a great victor, Karl takes the throne in a much less tumultuous time. The common struggle of the various nationalities in the army during the war is probably highly mythicized and used for propaganda to rally them around the flag. In short, the old order prevails, small nation states are not a very inviting possibility in a Europe still ruled by huge empires.
This but even more due to realities on the ground, maybe even Slovenia, depending on the Italian situation, but very certainly large parts of what otherwise became Czechoslovakia to the point where Prage could end up as an independent city state inside Austria. Few will be interested in getting annexed by Germany - that was the backup option of OTL that is not necessary here.
The Hungarians will of course demand the full crown of St. Stephen borders, but as in 1848 they're biting off more than they can really chew, it all depends on how beaten down and demilitarized the Romanians and Serbs are.
That's not how it works. Sure, the defeated governments probably wouldn't be able to pay anywhere near enough to cover all the damages of the war, but that's not everything. First of all, the French and British IOTL were so desperate to collect German reparations because they had to pay their debts to external loaners (mostly American banks). The Central Powers had pretty much no access to foreign credit at all. Unlike the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary did not even take credit from Germany, the war was mostly financed via loans from the Austro-Hungarian Central Bank. Internal debt is always easier to manage, since it can be restructured more easily (and in extreme cases it can even be inflated away).
Secondly, a CP victory would most certainly include clauses for Austria-Hungary to be designed as "most favoured nation" in atleast France, Italy, Serbia, Montenegro and Romania. The British not erecting punitive tariffs against Austro-Hungarian goods and good trade arrangements in the new Eastern European states and with Russia is also possible depending on the exact scenario. Access being restored to other parts of the world in general would also do a lot of good. The restoration of trade links would help a ton in the post-war reconstruction.
Thirdly, the previously unavailable foreign assets of Austria-Hungary (however few there was) would provide the ability to take out foreign loans for the reconstruction (however few would be available).
Losing a colonial empire is a very, very different thing. Ireland's situation could be likened to Hungary's if the Compromise of 1867 never have been made and Hungary would have gone through a similar episode to the Easter Rising during the war. That's not how things were however, so the Irish situation cannot really be compared to anything within the Habsburg Monarchy.
That map doesn't really reflect realities on the ground that well.
Use this instead: http://monarchia.elte.hu/
The thing is in Hungarian, but it's not difficult to guess what is what.
Great map thanks, took me a while to realize what the second circle is though.
I think with any victory, Austria would be likely to hold onto Carniola/Slovenia and Bohemia/Czechia. I think holding onto Galicia and the stability of the Hungary portion would depend on the outcome of the war. I think with an early CP victory those would both be held, though Hungary might face some unrest and reforms. I think with a late CP victory, the Hungary portion would be likely to collapse and Austria would stand a good chance of losing Galicia.
With a quick victory they could use various minorities under Hungarians to crush the Hungarians.
Why? Transleithania was doubtlessly the more stable half of the Monarchy at the end of the war IOTL. Things deteriorated only after the Czechs and Romania invaded. Aside from Croatia, the minorities in Hungary lacked the strength to secede on their own.
kham_coc
Banned
A late war victory won't save the prussian elites, the fundamental impact of the war was to reduce the salience of religion and increase it for nationalism, that and full suffrage will make those questions moot.
Besides the biggest reason was preserving prussias majority in the upper house, which won't matter as it won't be the prussian elite in charge of those seats anymore.
And would the Hungarians be rebelling anyway?
Even if successful, they would only have swapped an equal partnership with Austria for a very unequal one with a Greater Germany. So what's the point?
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marathag
Banned
At the top level, would mean a larger Center Party. They had been the main opposition to Bismarck in the Reichstag
There is one single factor which indicates a positive future for Austria-Hungary. Look at their economy since the 1890s. There was much economic and industrial growth, probably the biggest in Europe.
Economic downfall is always a very important indication of empires in decline. Roman Empire, Soviet Union, Dutch Republic, Ottoman Empire: they all had this downfall. Austria-Hungary didn’t. Is this a guarantee for survival? No, as we saw in october 1918. But it is an important factor to keep in mind. The Austrians in the beginning had a better position to survive than the Russians and Ottomans. So in my opinion it’s not strange to assume that the Habsburgs will stay in your scenario.