Kind or a simple question: what is the worst case scenario for the British at the Battle of Jutland in World War I? What was the worst possible defeat they could suffer? And what would the effect of such a defeat be?
Worst case scenario for British at Jutland.
- Thread starter Philosophical Zombie
- Start date
BlondieBC
Banned
Worst Case: We create butterflies that persuade the Germans that the surface warfare was winnable, at least a few months longer than OTL. Germany never does USW the second time, USA does not enter war, Central Powers win. Butterflies can be powerful things. Now I am not saying the battle can win the war, it can only change the war by secondary effects that lead to other decisions that were debated IOTL.
Worst Case for Battle: It is important to remember that the Battle was a tactical German win, with little strategic value besides it eventually lead to a PART of a chain of events that lead to USW resumption, and it mauled the German fleet with repairs at port. You can't really sink the Grand Fleet at Jutland because you run out of ammo (literally) before this happens, and even if you do sink the Grand Fleet, you don't win a lot in pure military terms. So what does it look like if the dice roll heavily the Germans way, but we don't load the dice.
The Germans had lots of ships and some Zeppelins looking for ships. They failed to detect the main fleet, so lets change it so they do. For discussion purposes, say the weather is better and trails both fleets (Beatty and main) starting with a few hours of leaving port, and are able to generally keep a bearing on the location of the UK fleet. The Germans communicate well, and are able to vector in to Beatty fleet. The best I can see you getting here is the Germans can destroy Beatty ships (Add losses of few QE and another BC) for about OTL German losses through this battle plus some additional damage. The Germans would largely need to be able to get behind Beatty, so he can't retreat. And the QE with the 15" would pound the living daylights out of the HSF before dying probably to torpedoes in many cases from smaller ships. As flooding and other damage slows down the QE, it becomes much easier to get torpedo boats and U-boats with good runs. Mauled HSF returns to port instead of facing undamaged main fleet.
Now what does a "historic" win like this get you? Huge international PR. Great UK grief. New UK admirals in charge. A German fleet that spends months in port being repaired. Possibly changes in diplomatic positions of neutrals. Possibly delaying USW, as there would be a real temptation to go out and "finish" the UK fleet as soon as enough repairs could be done. UK pulls ships in from other areas to replace losses and orders more battleships (maybe).
Worst Case for Battle: It is important to remember that the Battle was a tactical German win, with little strategic value besides it eventually lead to a PART of a chain of events that lead to USW resumption, and it mauled the German fleet with repairs at port. You can't really sink the Grand Fleet at Jutland because you run out of ammo (literally) before this happens, and even if you do sink the Grand Fleet, you don't win a lot in pure military terms. So what does it look like if the dice roll heavily the Germans way, but we don't load the dice.
The Germans had lots of ships and some Zeppelins looking for ships. They failed to detect the main fleet, so lets change it so they do. For discussion purposes, say the weather is better and trails both fleets (Beatty and main) starting with a few hours of leaving port, and are able to generally keep a bearing on the location of the UK fleet. The Germans communicate well, and are able to vector in to Beatty fleet. The best I can see you getting here is the Germans can destroy Beatty ships (Add losses of few QE and another BC) for about OTL German losses through this battle plus some additional damage. The Germans would largely need to be able to get behind Beatty, so he can't retreat. And the QE with the 15" would pound the living daylights out of the HSF before dying probably to torpedoes in many cases from smaller ships. As flooding and other damage slows down the QE, it becomes much easier to get torpedo boats and U-boats with good runs. Mauled HSF returns to port instead of facing undamaged main fleet.
Now what does a "historic" win like this get you? Huge international PR. Great UK grief. New UK admirals in charge. A German fleet that spends months in port being repaired. Possibly changes in diplomatic positions of neutrals. Possibly delaying USW, as there would be a real temptation to go out and "finish" the UK fleet as soon as enough repairs could be done. UK pulls ships in from other areas to replace losses and orders more battleships (maybe).
When Hipper led Beatty's squadron back to the main force of the High Seas Fleet, Beatty managed to disengage without suffering much additional damage IOTL. The QE class fast battleships were particularly vulnerable, since they were strung out behind the battlcruisers and missed the signal to disengage before they came under fire by the main force of the HSF. HMS Malaya (the last QE in line) was pretty badly damaged IOTL, and had her captain not disobeyed orders and turned early, or had the Germans gotten luckier with their gunnery, Malaya might have been sunk or disabled.
The worst-case scenario would have been for Sheer to get advance warning that Beatty was coming and gotten in position to cross Beatty's T. Perhaps if weather was clear enough to allow the HSF to use zepplins as scouts as they'd originally planned. In this scenario, Beatty would probably have lost several more ships than IOTL and might have lost most of his force.
But even if he'd lost his whole force, it wouldn't have lost the war for Britain. The Grand Fleet would still outnumber the HSF 27:16 in battleships and still would have had 3 surviving battlecruisers (not in Beatty's force) to the HSF's 5. It would have been a very nasty blow to British morale, and would probably have some serious political repurcussions, but there'd be no danger of the HSF breaking the blockade or threatening an invasion.
The worst-case scenario would have been for Sheer to get advance warning that Beatty was coming and gotten in position to cross Beatty's T. Perhaps if weather was clear enough to allow the HSF to use zepplins as scouts as they'd originally planned. In this scenario, Beatty would probably have lost several more ships than IOTL and might have lost most of his force.
But even if he'd lost his whole force, it wouldn't have lost the war for Britain. The Grand Fleet would still outnumber the HSF 27:16 in battleships and still would have had 3 surviving battlecruisers (not in Beatty's force) to the HSF's 5. It would have been a very nasty blow to British morale, and would probably have some serious political repurcussions, but there'd be no danger of the HSF breaking the blockade or threatening an invasion.
Riain
Banned
A technical advantage the HSF had over the GF was ability to get hits early on the engagements with their ladder ranging system, in contrast the GF tended to get better as the action progressed. So there is the potential there for the HSF to get in some crippling hits early on the general engagement as well after the battle turn aways, hits on magazines or control towers etc. and escaping serious damage in return. The result might be that the HSF writes down the GF to more or less even numbers, in the worst case for the GF.
If the HSF and GF were even in numbers what would stop the HSF from venturing down into the Channel and temporarily cutting the sea lanes to the BEF?
If the HSF and GF were even in numbers what would stop the HSF from venturing down into the Channel and temporarily cutting the sea lanes to the BEF?
BlondieBC
Banned
The Dover Barrage.
Torpedo boats
Submarines.
London Squadron of Dreadnoughts.
GF sailing from north to prevent escape.
For much the same reasons as the Grand Fleet spend almost none to no time off the coast of Germany, the HSF will spend no time in the channel.
BlondieBC
Banned
Since you brought up invasion, while we know there was no serious threat, the UK had spent decades scaring the public of invasion for more naval funding. A defeat like this probably keep several more division in the UK to guard against invasion, which will have a marginal impact on western Front.
It's been a while since I read that book on Jutland, but I remember the German fleet had a small window of opertunity to divide-and-conquer the British. I suppose that squadron of battlecruisers (I think its was BCs) could have been annihilated before the High Seas Fleet took on the rest of the Home Fleet. I really don't think the British will fight to the last ship, so if they take too many losses, we're looking at a withdrawl with most of their ships in tact.
Miricle at the Skagerak...
Any battle has a low probability of turning into an unexpected disaster for someone. (Note that this is a low probability--but we've had some awfully low probability results in OTL...)
Worsty case, perhaps, is that German air recon finds the Grand Fleet--but isn't seen by the British. Total disaster--the fog is just right, and the first the British know that the High Seas Fleet is in range is when the German battle line makes contact with the British fleet in cruising formation, not at battle stations. In the ensuing melee, the damage to Grand Flet could be catastrophic.
Add in a few subs in the right place as the British flee, sinking few cripples, adding insult to injury, and the moralle effect is catastrophic.
Note: VERY low probability!!!
an additional possibility-Germans get their hands on a British codebook at the right time and place, and use it to good effect. Or...the Germans get wind of Brisish codebreaking, and use it to set up a serious ambush...
Any battle has a low probability of turning into an unexpected disaster for someone. (Note that this is a low probability--but we've had some awfully low probability results in OTL...)
Worsty case, perhaps, is that German air recon finds the Grand Fleet--but isn't seen by the British. Total disaster--the fog is just right, and the first the British know that the High Seas Fleet is in range is when the German battle line makes contact with the British fleet in cruising formation, not at battle stations. In the ensuing melee, the damage to Grand Flet could be catastrophic.
Add in a few subs in the right place as the British flee, sinking few cripples, adding insult to injury, and the moralle effect is catastrophic.
Note: VERY low probability!!!
an additional possibility-Germans get their hands on a British codebook at the right time and place, and use it to good effect. Or...the Germans get wind of Brisish codebreaking, and use it to set up a serious ambush...
A worse case scenario is that the Grand Fleet destroyed itself, by blindly following the fleeing HSF into very dangereous, shallow mine invested waters in the Deutscher Bocht, shipwrecking the main fleet and shifitng the ballance of power in the Northsea. Jellicoe was not the sort of commander to do such a thing, but possibly Beatty would have done this, being the more agressive commander. With the Grand Fleet superiority in numbers gone, the HSF might have taken a future more agressive role, compared to its mostly passive OTL one.
Signal lamps & radios IIRC. I am unsure if they had a system for displaying signal flags.
BlondieBC
Banned
By this time, they had radios. While Zeppelins were of low value over land, they were of great value at sea. On good weather days, the Germans had been using Zeppelins to vector ships to targets for the better part of two years. Now you don't read much about these actions because the Germans lost and because most of the time it was sending small warships (torpedo boats and mine clearing ships) to deal with fishing boats laying mines in North Sea. Not really good movie stuff.
The Zeppelins could often see the mines being laid, and on the right days, could evidently see the mines in the water. I guess on a clear day with calm seas, a mine is easy to spot from few thousand feet. They would then watch the area as ships would clear these minefields.
If the HSF and GF were even in numbers what would stop the HSF from venturing down into the Channel and temporarily cutting the sea lanes to the BEF?
Aaaand..
Shedloads of destroyers in the Dover Patrol, not to mention British and French coastal artillery.
A non-starter, really.
Aaaand..
Shedloads of destroyers in the Dover Patrol, not to mention British and French coastal artillery.
A non-starter, really.
Tyr Anazasi
Banned
One forget the fact that in the night phase of the battle the Germans destroyers did not find the British battleships. Assuming better leadership, more luck and so on, it would have been possible to sink a large number of enemy battleships.
That being said, a decisive victory was possible.
Anyway, the consequences would be scaring for the British. The danger of an invasion would force the British to base several divisions in Britain instead in France, just to keep the panic low. This would have caused more butterflies. Would Haig start the battle of the Somme just a month later? What impact would have the battle of Verdun? Would perhaps Britain and France blood to death? Or would the British agree to peace talks once a major part of the fleet was sunk? Would the Czar, after the Pyrrhus victory of the Brusilow offensive, make peace? Would Germany not start the USW and thus alianating the USA?
That being said, a decisive victory was possible.
Anyway, the consequences would be scaring for the British. The danger of an invasion would force the British to base several divisions in Britain instead in France, just to keep the panic low. This would have caused more butterflies. Would Haig start the battle of the Somme just a month later? What impact would have the battle of Verdun? Would perhaps Britain and France blood to death? Or would the British agree to peace talks once a major part of the fleet was sunk? Would the Czar, after the Pyrrhus victory of the Brusilow offensive, make peace? Would Germany not start the USW and thus alianating the USA?