World War III Scenarios

[Romulus Augustulus]

What is says.

Basically, post your favorite NATO vs. Warsaw Pact, Cold-war-goes-hot scenario. I'll go first...

1. Hardliner coup in USSR
2. Tensions escalate in Europe until war breaks out
3. NATO fights the Warsaw Pact forces to a bloody standstill.
4. Tactical nuclear and chemical exchanges devastate Europe, very bloody fighting. But it does not escalate to a strategic exchange. Even so, Germany is devastated.
5. Two sides, on brink of collapse, sign truce.
6. USSR more or less collapses, although what's left of the USSR manages to retain the Russian-speaking areas in Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The authoritarian, post-Soviet government manages to pull something similar to a China. Eastern European governments now independent.
7. The US withdraws from Europe, although it still maintains allies in the Middle East and East Asia. It decides to pursue a policy of armed neutrality.
8. France, which somehow managed to remain neutral, becomes the major European power. A Scandinavian bloc does acquire a good deal of power, though...
9. Lots of little brushfire wars, another major war in Middle East, which Israel ends up surviving in stride yet again, along with another Indian-Pakistani war.
10. SA apartheid regime collapses.

More later...

It's basically a much less severe Twilight War.

 

[AMBOMB]

What year does this happen? How does France, a NATO country, remain neutral?

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

What year does this happen? How does France, a NATO country, remain neutral?

France is seperate from the NATO military command...in fact, perhaps it just might...

Anyway, postwar, Germany, which used to be East and West Germany, is now a whole patchwork of states. France is keen to exercise its influence...

Oh...and NATO has kind of been losing cohesion due to earlier PODs. I'd say late 1980s...

 

[BrianP]

I was thinking of creating a timeline based on Stanislav Petrov. Of course, in my timeline he would not have been as cool as he was in a crisis situation.

 

[luakel]

Instead of the Red armies stopping at the Elbe, they keep going as Stalin demands all of Germany & Austria. Truman refuses, and the two clash in Europe while Japan must try and defend itself from both the Bear and the Eagle...

 

[Tielhard]

Patton charges onward determined to repel the Red Horde assembling a rag tag army of ex-SS and German POWs in his wake. In a fit of madness Churchill backs him against the advice of the IGS.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Well, since Churchill isn't prime minister after the election of 1945 I find it hard to see how any action he takes, mad or otherwise, will make a difference.

 

[Max Sinister]

The POD could be before the election.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Then FDR is still alive and can act. More to the point, is this the same Churchill who calmly negotiated the partition of the Balkans with Stalin?

 

[Evil Opus]

My favorite WWIII scenario is: USSR nukes D.C. and invades America after getting a black eye in Afgahnistan. Yes, it's unlikely to the extreme, but I still like the scenario.

 

[Tielhard]

"Well, since Churchill isn't prime minister after the election of 1945 I find it hard to see how any action he takes, mad or otherwise, will make a difference."

Germans surrender 8/5/45
Labour win British general election 26/7/45

Which is what? Almost 3 months between the two dates.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

"I have decided that, in the aftermath of the bloodiest war in history, with many of our cities battered and bombed, and our army already shrinking due to lack of manpower and our economy in such dire straits that we may be on rationing into the 1950s to start another world war without the support or even awareness of the United States or the Commonwealth..."​

All those believing this will be a big vote getter raise your hand.

 

[plantagenet]

There was a possibility in 1983, when a NATO exercise known as ABLE ARCHER 83 was conducted.

I don't know about a specific scenario but I think a POD could be gotten from this event.

 

[AMBOMB]

France is seperate from the NATO military command...in fact, perhaps it just might...

Anyway, postwar, Germany, which used to be East and West Germany, is now a whole patchwork of states. France is keen to exercise its influence...

Oh...and NATO has kind of been losing cohesion due to earlier PODs. I'd say late 1980s...

France is still a member of NATO, still treaty bound to defend a member that's attacked. Late 1980's no way Warsaw Pact fights NATO to a standstill. More likely scenario: Russians are getting their asses kicked and, in desperation, do full strategic launch on US, which of course, retaliates in kind. So much for civilization on this planet.

 

[Iñaki]

l

originally posted by Plantagenet
There was a possibility in 1983, when a NATO exercise known as ABLE ARCHER 83 was conducted.

I don't know about a specific scenario but I think a POD could be gotten from this event.

In fact it seems that in this year a World War III was only averted by the Lieutenant Coronel Stanislav Petrov when he disobeyed a nuclear alert by soviet computers, he thought that it was an error, only a feeling, he was right, it was only a computer error, but if another man different than Petrov had been in command when the error happened, well....

This is the link about the history of Petrov http://www.brightstarsound.com/world_hero/article.html

 

[stevep]

Then FDR is still alive and can act. More to the point, is this the same Churchill who calmly negotiated the partition of the Balkans with Stalin?

GR

Churchill negotiated the deal because he knew Britain was too weak to oppose Stalin and the Su and that the US was unwilling to. [This was referring to whether the eastern European states which were occupied by the Red Army would have free governments or be under communist political control].

If it was a case of a Soviet attack into the western sphere of control then Churchill would definitely fight, as Britain would have very little choice. If Patton was on the warpath he would jump at any chance to tie up with the US and keep them involved as otherwise there was no way the Red Army would be prevented from overrunning the continent.

Steve

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

France is still a member of NATO, still treaty bound to defend a member that's attacked. Late 1980's no way Warsaw Pact fights NATO to a standstill. More likely scenario: Russians are getting their asses kicked and, in desperation, do full strategic launch on US, which of course, retaliates in kind. So much for civilization on this planet.

Actually, NATO would be lucky to survive a Soviet attack. Most probably, the Soviets would attack during a very inconvenient time for the NATO powers, say, a mass bank holiday, crowding the roads with refugees, etc. They wouldn't be able to respond in West Germany. Even if that didn't happen, the NATO powers would be very hard-pressed to stop a Soviet advance in West Germany, although their qualitative advantage would make up for their quantitative disadvantage. IMO, a bloody stalemate, tactical nuclear exchanges, and no more Germany is the most likely result.

As for France, it probably depends on earlier PODs, but if the Soviets are stopped before reaching France and it isn't too badly damaged, and the US goes for armed neutrality afterwards, France is going to be the major power in Europe.

Of course, massive size of the Soviet armored forces and their sheer mass or not (I also think that if the Soviets managed to prevent their logistical networks from damage, which could potentially be doable, although not with NATO air superiority...) they'd have problems of their own just as NATO would.

So, most likely scenario is a stalemate.

 

[Syphon]

My favorite POD is Ronald Raygun suffering from dementia order an all our war against the USSR.

I was goning to use this as a POD for my cockroaches rule the world TL but I haven't had the time to write any of it yet.

 

[CalBear]

Actually, NATO would be lucky to survive a Soviet attack. Most probably, the Soviets would attack during a very inconvenient time for the NATO powers, say, a mass bank holiday, crowding the roads with refugees, etc. They wouldn't be able to respond in West Germany. Even if that didn't happen, the NATO powers would be very hard-pressed to stop a Soviet advance in West Germany, although their qualitative advantage would make up for their quantitative disadvantage. IMO, a bloody stalemate, tactical nuclear exchanges, and no more Germany is the most likely result.

As for France, it probably depends on earlier PODs, but if the Soviets are stopped before reaching France and it isn't too badly damaged, and the US goes for armed neutrality afterwards, France is going to be the major power in Europe.

Of course, massive size of the Soviet armored forces and their sheer mass or not (I also think that if the Soviets managed to prevent their logistical networks from damage, which could potentially be doable, although not with NATO air superiority...) they'd have problems of their own just as NATO would.

So, most likely scenario is a stalemate.

In the LATE 80's? Late 70's perhaps, mid 80's doubtful, late 80's not a chance in hell without Warsaw Pact use of Tac Nukes. The correlation of forces had swung so far in NATO's favor by the late 80's that the game was up. The Red Army, despite using tactics that the United States never even dreamed of employing in 'Nam OR in Iraq, couldn't handle the Afghans or the Chechens by the late 80's, much less the 24th Mech or the BAOR.

It would not have been as lop-sided as the Gulf War, but the Fulda Gap would have been blocked with Soviet armor wreckage. Once the main thrust was stalled, I'm not even sure the Warsaw Pact forces wouldn't have turned on the Red Army and caught them in a vise.

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

In the LATE 80's? Late 70's perhaps, mid 80's doubtful, late 80's not a chance in hell without Warsaw Pact use of Tac Nukes. The correlation of forces had swung so far in NATO's favor by the late 80's that the game was up. The Red Army, despite using tactics that the United States never even dreamed of employing in 'Nam OR in Iraq, couldn't handle the Afghans or the Chechens by the late 80's, much less the 24th Mech or the BAOR.

It would not have been as lop-sided as the Gulf War, but the Fulda Gap would have been blocked with Soviet armor wreckage. Once the main thrust was stalled, I'm not even sure the Warsaw Pact forces wouldn't have turned on the Red Army and caught them in a vise.

It relies on both sides using tacnukes and the situation in West Germany really going to hell.

Besides, the NATO forces kind of weren't in a very good position, either...they're defending West Germany, a tiny, crowded strip of land. No strategic depth, very heavily urbanized so lots of refugees blocking the road, etc.

I think that it would lead to some kind of horrifying nightmare in West Germany.

Yes, the War Nerd can be trusted on this.

Afterwards, all the Soviets manage to hold onto is the RSFSR and parts of Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. The new nationalist regime is pretty sane and reformist, actually doing a better job than any post-Soviet Russian regime in OTL, even if they are pariahs.