World in Conflict - Lebanon War escalation.

[burgoynewulfe]

The Road To War
A timeline of the third world war
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Following the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, Lebanon became the home to more than 100,000 Palestinian refugees, abandoning their settlements in Israel and in effect setting the stage for the future conflict. Following the Six Day War of 1967 and the radicalization among Palestinian refugees, the Palestinian Liberation Organization became a powerful militant force, based in Jordan. Following "Black September" in 1971, with the assassination of King Hussein and the overthrowing of the Hashemite dynasty, the PLO leadership took control of Jordan.

By October 1973 a coalition of Arab states (Jordan under the control of the PLO, Syria, and Egypt) launched a surprise attack on Israel, invading the nation through the Golan heights, the Sinai, and the West Bank. After a mere three months of fighting and thousands of casualties on both sides peace was finally made, a stalemate that would lead the world into a world war in just a decade. When the Camp David Accords were signed in 1978 Israel was left in a precarious position, surrounded by an Arab coalition bent of their destruction.

Emboldened by the recent precised victory against Israel, violence between Israel and the PLO peaked during Operation Litani in 1978, provoked by the Coastal Road Massacre which was carried out by Palestinian militants based in southern Lebanon. As a result the United Nations Interim Force was created in Lebanon, and to confirm Israeli withdraw from southern Lebanon to restore international peace and security.

Following relative peace between Israel and Lebanon in 1980-81, the peace was shattered when Israel resumed strikes against targets in southern Lebanon, in an attempt to trigger a war to drive out the PLO from southern Lebanon and restore the peace. In July 1981 a ceasefire had been brokered and the Israeli-Lebanese border experienced a state of peace and calm not seen since 1968. But it was not to last. Following the PLO bombing of Israeli civilian and military targets near the Israeli-Lebanese border in April 1982. As a result of the attacks Israel once again resumed air strikes against Lebanon, culminating in the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon in June 1982, in operation "Peace For Galilee."

After Israel's invasion of Lebanon and occupation of Beirut, Syria brought Egypt and Jordan into the war, both invading Israel respectively, and receiving financial support from the Soviet Union while Israel received financial support from the United States. But in October 1983 the war would take a turn for the worst with the PLO bombing of the Beirut Marine Barracks, killing hundreds of French and American servicemen. Through investigation it was found the PLO had been supplied by the Soviet Union with money and resources to launch the attack, although in retrospect it is unlikely the Soviet government was aware of the PLO plans to attack the Marine barracks.

The war finally boiled over in November 1983 when during Able Archer, a NATO war games exercise in Europe, led to fighting in West Germany, which in turn led to a full scale Warsaw Pact invasion of West Germany.

And the rest is history..

 

[burgoynewulfe]

I plan on expanding this timeline far more but for the time being I need to work out the kinks and make it more and more believable.

What do you think so far?

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Very Interesting premise. Lebanon's definitely a powder keg, it will be interesting to see how the various Lebanese factions come into play.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Third World War? Aren't nukes going to be a problem?

 

[Dunning Kruger]

Welcome to the WWIII club. Giobastia had a nice TL. Jimmy Green's TL had rave reviews although I intentionally stayed away so as to not bias my own WWIII tl. Good luck.

 

[burgoynewulfe]

No nuclear war in my timeline. After all no one wants to destroy the world, its easy to say you'll nuke the other nation into oblivion but its a very different story to actually do it.

 

[Historyman 14]

No nuclear war in my timeline. After all no one wants to destroy the world, its easy to say you'll nuke the other nation into oblivion but its a very different story to actually do it.

Well, the West is not going to let Russia stay in West Germany.

 

[Chris Oakley]

Third World War? Aren't nukes going to be a problem?

Yeah, especially if Israel decides to play the Samson's Fist card.

 

[Chris S]

I plan on expanding this timeline far more but for the time being I need to work out the kinks and make it more and more believable.

What do you think so far?

It is an interesting premise, but there is something wrong. in OTL, the entire reason why Israel and the PLO battled it out in Lebanon in the late 1970s and in the 1980s was because the PLO lost in Jordan during Black September and was expelled to Lebanon.

If the PLO wins in Jordan, they don't go to Lebanon and Lebanon remains neutral for the rest of the Arab-Israeli Wars, with Jordan, Syria and Egypt being the the main battlegrounds between the Arabs and Israelis.

 

[omrk]

Hezbollah was responsible for the 1983 Beirut bombing, not the PLO, who in turn would not have been there because of Black September not occurring.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

It is an interesting premise, but there is something wrong. in OTL, the entire reason why Israel and the PLO battled it out in Lebanon in the late 1970s and in the 1980s was because the PLO lost in Jordan during Black September and was expelled to Lebanon.

If the PLO wins in Jordan, they don't go to Lebanon and Lebanon remains neutral for the rest of the Arab-Israeli Wars, with Jordan, Syria and Egypt being the the main battlegrounds between the Arabs and Israelis.

Hezbollah was responsible for the 1983 Beirut bombing, not the PLO, who in turn would not have been there because of Black September not occurring.

The PLO were operating in Lebanon pre 1970. Failure of Black September only boosted their numbers but not that dramatically. In OTL 1975 there were over 200,000 Palestinians in Lebanon. The OP only lists 100,000 so this could make up for the discrepancy. So we should say PLO would have half the capabilities of OTL in Lebanon. A full alliance with Syria, something they didn't have in OTL, could make up for this.

I have a book with Palestinian population per refugee camp if needed pre Black September and Post.

 

[Chris S]

The PLO were operating in Lebanon pre 1970. Failure of Black September only boosted their numbers but not that dramatically.

Define "not dramatically". Because the number of PLO fighters in Jordan at the time of Black September was at least 20,000 and possibly between 30-40,000.

According to wikipedia (with two sources), around 3,400 PLO fighters died in Black September. So since the PLO as an organization (leadership and fighters) were expelled from Jordan completely, then the number of PLO fighters that made it to Lebanon from Jordan could have been between 16,000 and 36,000.


When you move tens of thousands of fighters, plus the entire leadership structure from Jordan to Lebanon, the effect is definitely not going to be trivial.

Certainly the PLO used Lebanon as a base to attack Israel before Black September (the 1969 Cairo Agreement laid the basis for this and if I'm not mistake the peak of PLO attacks into Israel from Lebanon was in 1970 before the PLO were expelled from Jordan into Lebanon). However, with the concentration of PLO power into Lebanon in OTL the focus for Israel became Lebanon and that was the reason things unfolded as they did.

If the PLO wins in Jordan then Lebanon will remain a useful secondary base, but the primary base of operations will be Jordan and Israel's focus will be not Lebanon, but Jordan.

PLO raids into Israel from Lebanon will be likely to occur for sure and even without the expanded PLO presence in Lebanon as in OTL, a Lebanese civil war partly triggered due to the tensions associated with the PLO presence is likely.

However, following the PLO expulsion from Jordan you didn't have PLO raids against Israel from Jordan (impossible to do since the PLO wasn't there). Prior to that the Israelis had responded with increasing ferocity to PLO raids from Jordan, with the most salient example being the Battle of Karameh in 1968.

No PLO expulsion = more Battle of Karameh style operations and fighting in Jordan. This would likely eventually lead to a major Israeli campaign in Jordan at some point in the 1970s and/or early 1980s (so Operation Peace for Jordan rather than Operation Peace for Galilee).

Israeli involvement in Lebanon will be in reaction to what happens there. Lebanon will likely be up shit's creek since in this TL you now have Syria and a Syrian-allied, Palestinian run "Republic of Jordan" which would likely support the PLO-allied Lebanese factions in Lebanon against the Phalangists. It might well be a short civil war with the PLO, Syrians and their allies ascendant in Lebanon. if Israel doesn't intervene around 1975-1976 (depending on when the civil war starts) to aid the Phalangists, then their focus on Lebanon will probably be to carry out large scale raids and clearing operations along the border rather than to carve out security zones as happened in 1978 and 1982 (they likely would not devote enough forces necessary - perhaps 15,000 to any given operation rather than the 25,000 used for Operation Litani and 78,000 in Operation Peace for Galilee).

In OTL 1975 there were over 200,000 Palestinians in Lebanon.

This included fighters and non-fighters.

The OP only lists 100,000 so this could make up for the discrepancy. So we should say PLO would have half the capabilities of OTL in Lebanon. A full alliance with Syria, something they didn't have in OTL, could make up for this.

I have a book with Palestinian population per refugee camp if needed pre Black September and Post.

That would be quite useful. Does it also detail the number of fighters in Lebanon before Black September and after?

 

[hasdrubal barca]

If the PLO wins in Jordan then Lebanon will remain a useful secondary base, but the primary base of operations will be Jordan and Israel's focus will be not Lebanon, but Jordan.

That would be quite useful. Does it also detail the number of fighters in Lebanon before Black September and after?

Your analysis is correct. The focus will surely be on Jordan. Israeli focus would have to be shifted for this too work with some major incident. The ball is really in Syria's court for this.

Pre 1970 numbers I'll have to look some more into. Here what I got so far.

Post Black September the PLA has 2,000 fighters based in Syria, these move into Lebanon in 75, and Fatah has a "strategic reserve" of 12,000 fighters, which moved to Lebanon, after Black September. In addition to this the PFLP, which is more Lebanon centric, had an unknown number of forces. There are also contingents of PLO military police operating at local levels.

So my guess is in this ATL they would be missing this "strategic reserve" and left with local structure in addition to the Syrian based forces. It will be up to the Syrians how much support is given to boost them.

 

[burgoynewulfe]

This has all been very helpful, thank you. So with all this in mind had the PLO overthrown King Hussein in 1971 does that mean the "Lebanon war" would be the "Jordan war?" If this is the case Jordan has very different geography from Lebanon and I imagine that would drastically change how the war would play out.
An other question would be, How would Saudi Arabia respond to PLO dominated Jordan? Allies or not?
Also How does Iraq respond? The Soviet Union?

 

[burgoynewulfe]

Would it be likely that Syria, Jordan, and Egypt would form a military alliance with each other, maybe like a Cairo Pact? I also wonder how something like this would alter the geopolitics of the middle east during the 1970s and 1980s..

 

[hasdrubal barca]

This has all been very helpful, thank you. So with all this in mind had the PLO overthrown King Hussein in 1971 does that mean the "Lebanon war" would be the "Jordan war?" If this is the case Jordan has very different geography from Lebanon and I imagine that would drastically change how the war would play out.
An other question would be, How would Saudi Arabia respond to PLO dominated Jordan? Allies or not?
Also How does Iraq respond? The Soviet Union?

If your still interested in Lebanon the 1958 crisis is an option. The US intervened and the Soviets made some threats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Lebanon_crisis

Saudi Arabia always tried to maintain cordial relations with the PLO. They aren't best friends however the Saudis wanted the PLO to moderate more. Deposing Jordan's monarchy sets a bad tone that may effect relations. Iraq and Syria are rivals, PLO will have to chose one or the other. The Soviet Union will offer to help which could be useful if accepted it does risk angering Saudis. Egypt is very close with Saudi Arabia and will follow their lead.

My guess is PLO Jordan would be closest to Syria and Soviet Union or Iraq and Soviet Union.

 

[Chris S]

Your analysis is correct. The focus will surely be on Jordan. Israeli focus would have to be shifted for this too work with some major incident. The ball is really in Syria's court for this.

Pre 1970 numbers I'll have to look some more into. Here what I got so far.

Post Black September the PLA has 2,000 fighters based in Syria, these move into Lebanon in 75, and Fatah has a "strategic reserve" of 12,000 fighters, which moved to Lebanon, after Black September. In addition to this the PFLP, which is more Lebanon centric, had an unknown number of forces. There are also contingents of PLO military police operating at local levels.

So my guess is in this ATL they would be missing this "strategic reserve" and left with local structure in addition to the Syrian based forces. It will be up to the Syrians how much support is given to boost them.

That's assuming the Syria based forces even go into Lebanon. The move of those 2,000 fighters in 1975 likely had something to do with the Lebanese Civil War. If you don't have the PLO being expelled en masse into Lebanon in 1971 (and I think some Palestinian refugees too) then the demographics and political dynamics of Lebanon might not be upset as much as it was in OTL and either you may not have a civil war at all (hence no need for the 2,000 fighters in Syria to move into Lebanon maybe) or if you do get a civil war it might occur later (perhaps 1976-1977) and end up being shorter (due to support from Syria and a Palestinian run Jordan for the PLO and its allies in Lebanon) assuming Israel doesn't intervene at some point.

 

[Chris S]

This has all been very helpful, thank you. So with all this in mind had the PLO overthrown King Hussein in 1971 does that mean the "Lebanon war" would be the "Jordan war?" If this is the case Jordan has very different geography from Lebanon and I imagine that would drastically change how the war would play out.
An other question would be, How would Saudi Arabia respond to PLO dominated Jordan? Allies or not?
Also How does Iraq respond? The Soviet Union?

I would imagine that there may not end up being a Lebanon War that starts off as it did in OTL in 1982, yes.

There might still be a Lebanon War in the 1970s but only IF there is a Lebanese Civil War (not a guarantee), and IF this Civil War doesn't end very quickly (also not a guarantee with the PLO now having the resources of its own state, Jordan, at its disposal in prosecuting a war in Lebanon) and IF Israel decided that it wanted to intervene in this Lebanese Civil War in support of the Phalangists.

Assuming that there is either no Lebanese Civil War or one that ends quickly without Israel intervening, then there might indeed be some kind of "Jordan War" in the 1970s and 1980s.

And this would be fought very differently from the 1978 and 1982 Lebanese campaigns. In 1956 the Israelis had apparently used 175,000 troops in that Sinai campaign. In 1967 they had used approximately 70,000 soldiers in the Sinai, approximately 40,000 in the West Bank and approximately 30-40,000 in the Golan Heights campaigns.

The 1978 Lebanon campaign saw 25,000 troops used, while 1982 saw 78,000 troops used. In 1982, the peace treaty with Egypt had meant that Israel was able to significantly reduced military spending and was able to focus a lot more forces in the other border areas, which allowed them to use so many troops for Lebanon.

Assuming the 1971 POD does not significantly alter the Yom Kippur War, which seems unlikely (for instance a PLO run Jordan is likely to enter that war and there is no guarantee as to what would happen then - Egypt may have more success in the Sinai as a result; PLO Jordan might regain some land in the West Bank; Israel might well counterattack across the Jordan into the East Bank; maybe the superpowers get involved and the whole world is reduced to ash before 1974 even begins....), then IF Israel makes peace with Egypt, but not with Lebanon, Syria and PLO-Jordan then a Jordan War which is limited only to Jordan (so Syria and Israel end up fighting each other in Jordan rather than across the Golan Heights again) would see the Israelis tasked with possibly securing some kind of "security zone" all along the border with PLO-Jordan (that might well be the minimum objectives) or even occupying a major part of Jordan and attempting to expel the PLO and Palestinians from Jordan.

The geography of Jordan would be unlikely that of Lebanon where the Litani forms a natural objective (as do the smaller rivers running east to west further north along the coast) and the Lebanon and Anti-Lebanon mountains form natural barriers to the movement of forces (thus splitting Lebanon into two theatres - the coast to the Lebanon mountains and the Bekaa Valley between the Lebanon and Anti-Lebanon mountains and with the Anti-Lebanon Mountains forming a natural barrier with Syria, thus making it easier for Israel to campaign in Lebanon without having to send significant forces to control the border area with Syria but instead to focus on controlling access to the Damascus-Beirut Highway):

Instead, Jordan has basically has a major mountainous plateau which forms an escarpment along the edge of the Jordan Rift Valley (which forms Jordan's western border). The edge of the escarpment forms a series of heights which would likely constitute the minimum Israeli objective as it would give Israel control of the high ground overlooking the Jordan Valley much as control of the escarpment in the Golan Heights gave Israel control of the high ground overlooking Lake Tiberias and the upper Jordan Valley:

As can be seen from the map the chain of heights is interrupted by wadis and rivers running east to west. This makes it similar to the Golan Heights where:

"The Golan Heights' unique terrain (mountainous slopes crossed by parallel streams every several kilometers running east to west), and the general lack of roads in the area channeled both forces along east-west axes of movement and restricted the ability of units to support those on either flank. Thus the Syrians could move north-south on the plateau itself, and the Israelis could move north-south at the base of the Golan escarpment. "

The Israelis would be looking at basically re-fighting the 1967 Golan campaign all along their eastern border and thus see fighting divided into maybe four sectors of east-west axes, while their north-south movement would be much free along the edge of the escarpment (and the PLO north-south movement would be freer on the plateau). If the Israelis only aim to take the heights along the escarpment they will control the entire Jordan Rift Valley which contains a major north-south road and will overlook most of Jordan's population centres (including Amman) in the next minor valley:

See map here (originally from here)

If the Israelis decide to go further their next objective line might be the highways and railways connecting Aqaba-Ma'an-Al Hasa-Al Qatranah-Al Jiza-Amman-Ar Rusayfah-Az Zarqa-Al Mafraq (if I'm not mistaken this line was speculated as the line that Israel would have have been interested in controlling and defending in 1991 had the Gulf War gone a little crazy with an Iraqi invasion of Jordan).

In 1967, Moshe Dayan opposed assaulting the Golan Heights as he estimated that such an assault might lead to 30,000 casualties. This of course did not happen, but given the 1967 Golan experience and presumably the 1973 Golan experience (and possibly a 1973 Jordan experience) then the Syrians may well be better prepared for an Israeli attempt to conquer the heights along the eastern edge of the Rift Valley in Jordan and be better able to coordinate the defence of this area.

At a minimum, any Jordan War scenario will probably see the Israelis needing to commit 40,000 soldiers and possibly more like 70-120,000 (maybe even 150,000 if they aim to take most of Jordan's populated areas). The amount of forces the Israelis can spare will depend a lot on what is happening in the Sinai with Egypt (whether there is peace with Egypt and thus no need to commit large numbers of forces to defend against a possible Egyptian attack or if there is no peace and substantial forces deployed along the western border).

 

[Chris S]

An other question would be, How would Saudi Arabia respond to PLO dominated Jordan? Allies or not?
Also How does Iraq respond? The Soviet Union?

Those are very, very good questions. Assuming that Saudi Arabia did not intervene to support the monarchy in Jordan against the PLO and Syrians, then they are likely to be friendly enough with PLO-Jordan but also wary.

Iraq and the USSR would likely be friendly with PLO-Jordan.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

I would imagine that there may not end up being a Lebanon War that starts off as it did in OTL in 1982, yes.
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Very detailed post nice.