What if the ROC won the civil war while Taiwan became a communist nation in 1949, and with slight differences, both nations went on their OTL paths?
Wl PRC-ROC role reversal.
- Thread starter Hal Jordan
- Start date
The PRC could end up at a remnant in Manchuria(and maybe Korea depending on other factors) or Xinjiang(along with parts of Gansu and Qinghai) propped up by the bordering Soviets but Taiwan is just too far from any sort of friendly power or support. Would probably need something like a communist Japan or USA to give them the naval support to take and hold the isle which would have many more butterflies.
Last edited:
If the PRC was able to bring about an uprising in Taiwan that would be a good staring point.
Then they need to be able to get their forces onto the island.
Would the Soviet Union send their navy to intervene like the U.S. did?
Maybe parachute in a bunch of soldiers to make sure no one attacks the island as they would be attacking Russia as well as the communists.
The ROC may be content to let the PRC get as many as it's people onto Taiwan as the PRC can. Look it at as the world's biggest voluntary POW camp.
Then they need to be able to get their forces onto the island.
Would the Soviet Union send their navy to intervene like the U.S. did?
Maybe parachute in a bunch of soldiers to make sure no one attacks the island as they would be attacking Russia as well as the communists.
The ROC may be content to let the PRC get as many as it's people onto Taiwan as the PRC can. Look it at as the world's biggest voluntary POW camp.
Burton K Wheeler
Moderator
This scenario was in the first Robery Cowley What If book, I think in an essay by Arthur Waldron. He argued that Chiang Kai-Shek was significantly overextending himself by invading Manchuria in 1946 and he should have contained the Communists instead. I"m not sure how plausible the scenario is, but that could give you People's Republic of China in Manchuria and a East Turkestan People's Republic, which would be a Soviet satellite like Mongolia.
https://thediplomat.com/2015/12/what-if-the-kuomingtang-had-won-the-chinese-civil-war/
https://thediplomat.com/2015/12/what-if-the-kuomingtang-had-won-the-chinese-civil-war/
A Commie Manchuria would probably make more sense as a "reverse Taiwan" and I believe such a truncated PRC would probably go down the path NK took IOTL.
A rump PRC would base itself in Manchuria. Not Taiwan.
Mao in Taiwan is about as plausiable Chiang going to Xinjiang.
Mao in Taiwan is about as plausiable Chiang going to Xinjiang.
Have to disagree. Stalin never liked Mao so it is more likely that in TTL he would have him deposed and have someone more favorable to him set up in Manchuria. There would be no time for a cult of personality to develop unlike in North Korea. The PRC would become a client state of the USSR. It is unlikely to become a SSR because that would be regarded as an annexation but we could see a level of control of the country exerted that could rival or even exceed the level of postwar Poland. The PRC would become integrated with the Soviet Union economically, politically, and maybe even culturally.
Last edited: