Let's say that the Ottomans get taken out by Tamerlane and/or a more successful Hungarian Crusade. Mamluk Egypt obviously doesn't get conquered by them, but I have to wonder what would become of it. My general impression is that the Mamluks were on the way out by the 16th century owing to the Portuguese penetration into the Indian Ocean, but I have difficulty generally imagining the development of the Egyptian state without the Ottomans. Would it be swallowed whole by eg a more successful Ak Qoyunlu/Safavid Iran, or succumb to a Bedouin conquest?
Without the Ottomans, what happens to the Mamluks?
- Thread starter The Undead Martyr
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EU4 dictates that they would colonize Australia.
No but for real, the Mameluke institution was able to survive as a kind of state-within-a-state in the Ottoman Empire, so I don’t think they were necessarily doomed to fail in any way, even if European penetration into the Indian Ocean did hurt them. A lot of it would depend on what replaces the Ottomans I think, if Anatolia is fractured into Beylik states then Egypt may well look north for expansion itself.
No but for real, the Mameluke institution was able to survive as a kind of state-within-a-state in the Ottoman Empire, so I don’t think they were necessarily doomed to fail in any way, even if European penetration into the Indian Ocean did hurt them. A lot of it would depend on what replaces the Ottomans I think, if Anatolia is fractured into Beylik states then Egypt may well look north for expansion itself.
The consequences of the POD of a successful Hungarian Crusade are different from a victorious Tamerlan in Anatolia because Timur will established some kind of Mongol/Muslim state, who at the death of Timur could replaced the Ottomans OTL in Anatolia.
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timur said he wanted to restore the seljuks but in reality what he actually re established was some of the the beyliks another casa of Timur excuses I guess
Because restoring the seljuks also doesn't mean they get the whole of anatolia as he could easily just do this
( Obviously with differences but the point of the seljuks just been one of many )
In practice I think Tamerlane's state likely to fall apart at his death, Ottomans or no Ottomans. Still eastern and central Anatolia at the least is likely to fall under a Turko-Iranian empire, be it the Timurids, the Black Sheep or the Qara Qoyunlu.
If the POD is a successful Hungarian Crusade, the Beylik states including a surviving Anatolian Ottoman Beylik will have as possibility to become vassals of the Mameluks or began to be destroyed one by one by various new Crusades who will be in a Reconquista mode after the liberation of the Balkans.
The Mamelukes themselves will be in danger to be overextended because their expansion can go north-east in the Levant, south-east on the Red Sea Arabian peninsula coast or south to Upper Egypt or Sudan region...
Being the successor of Egypt, the traditionnal areas of expansion are the Levant up to Syria, and the regions south to Egypt, being the regional Muslim power, they need to control both Jerusalem and Mecca and being in control of the Red Sea, they will expand on the Arabian Peninsula to control the trade...
The Mamelukes themselves will be in danger to be overextended because their expansion can go north-east in the Levant, south-east on the Red Sea Arabian peninsula coast or south to Upper Egypt or Sudan region...
Being the successor of Egypt, the traditionnal areas of expansion are the Levant up to Syria, and the regions south to Egypt, being the regional Muslim power, they need to control both Jerusalem and Mecca and being in control of the Red Sea, they will expand on the Arabian Peninsula to control the trade...
I wonder which successful crusade maybe nicopolis? But thar wouldn't make the ottoman empire that much weaker maybe loose Bulgaria
You could have a both a crusader victory at nicopolis and timur doing what the he did so the civil war following it could be taking advantage of
As for the middle east I think there is a possibility for a turko iranian tribe to invade anatolia
Then maybe split off like the sultanate of rum did with the seljuk empire
I was thinking about the Varna Crusade who can be called a "Hungarian Crusade"... Nicopolis was more an united European Crusade...
Presumably they'd be able to govern Egypt and Syria long term as an underdeveloped and poor state that loses its edge over regional competitors
Presuming Safavid Iran rises, they could face pressure from the East
Without the Ottomans, it's possible that Catholic Mediterranean powers could take an interest in conquest or expansion, but a lot here is dependent on what happens in Europe's balance of power
Presuming Safavid Iran rises, they could face pressure from the East
Without the Ottomans, it's possible that Catholic Mediterranean powers could take an interest in conquest or expansion, but a lot here is dependent on what happens in Europe's balance of power
Without the Ottomans and no successor state in Anatolia that will replaced the Ottomans as an Anatolian power, both Christian or Muslim, the Mamelukes are the only regional power. Because I expected than Anatolia will become a battlefield for an Anatolian Reconquista. But you have no real powerful Christian power in this region, Hungary is too far and the Byzantine Empire is too weak, so this Reconquista can be failure or can be very slow.
Another regional power will be something in Iran / Persia...
Sounds like either a 3rd Bulgarian or second Serbian empire is our best bet; especially with tamerlane, they're in a strong position to reestablish themselves without the Turks. Hell even if they're rebelling, the leader who got independence could probably build a Balkan power while he's at it. I think both were typically more palatable to Hungary than the Romans as well
Some go as far as to say that mameluks egypt economy was so bad it was basically de facto a economical colony in many aspects of the italian merchant Republics
Those are the same.
Aq Qoyunlu is White Sheep while Qara Qoyunlu is Black Sheep.
Osman Aga
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Whomever unites Anatolia, let alone conquers the Eastern Balkans as well will face the Mamluks. As long as Anatolia is fragmented the Mamluks are sort of fine. The Safavids (if not butterflied away) do not have the forces to destroy the Mamluks althoug the warfare between them will destroy Syria most definitely.
Well I'm specifically thinking about Visconti Itsly joining Hungary at an alt Varna and destroying the Ottomans (presumably they'd conquer Egypt sometime in the next couple of centuries), but Venice was historically a dominant power in the eastern Mediterranean, and absent the Turks it's not impossible that they reduce the Mamluks to a protectorate or even go full Raj and take over eventually.
Ah, that´s a wrong conception. The Mamluks didn´t offer much resistance in the indian ocean because the war with the Osmans took up much of their manpower. So with no Osmans pestering them the Portuguese might suffer a defeat...
You forget the other emirates that existed alongside the Osmans, like the Karamans, for Anatolia that is
True, but the Ottomans were able to rise beyond regional state (at best) due to expanding into the power vacuum in the Balkans. Karaman is unlikely to exceed the borders of the old Seljuks IMO, and would in that case be an anatolian and Iranian power rather than a replacement for the Ottomans.
I think it's somewhat backwards and in any case not just a question of manpower. Egypt is principally a land power and not really capable of matching Portuguese naval supremacy. They'd need the Venetians to really contest Portugal in the Horn, as the Battle of Diu showed. Of course absent the Turks Venice could presumably focus more effort in the Red Sea and beyond, but that leads me to think that Egypt might become an Italian protectorate down the line.
I was only talking about Anatolia, which the Karamans were one of the greater states there, and closer. Them and the Black/White Sheep seem like the most likely to create a new hegemonial state in the area(East Anatolia and Mesopotamia). I was not talking a replacement, but that specific region.
Which is logical, since your question was: Osmanian dynasty disappears...how fares the Mamelukes of Egypt?