With no Dukakis, who gets the nomination in 1988?

With no Dukakis, who gets the nomination in 1988?

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Gordian

I'm wondering who would receive the nomination if for some reason, Michael Dukakis was not there. I believe it would be Al Gore or possibly even Bill Bradley, because they were whom the DLC was looking to recruit at the time.

Who do you think would get the nomination in an absence of Dukakis?
 
V-J

V-J

Not going to be Gore. I guess there's a fifty-fifty chance of Bubba entering in this scenario and getting Bimbo Eruptioned out of the race in very short order - in the '88 post-Hart climate I doubt even Team Clinton could dance its way out of the issue.

Most likely it would be Gephardt. Paul Simon's chances also increase, but really he would have to beat Gephardt in Iowa to have a shot, and considering how intensively and early Gephardt worked Iowa, that's a tough one in a more even, Dukakisless race. (Simon pretty much won Iowa IOTL, but that was the product of a very long and peculiar set of events which I don't see being replicated in a two-way in the state, which is what I think Iowa would be ITTL)
 
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modelcitizen

modelcitizen

I think you left out Biden.

Without Dukakis and his campaign chief Sasso, Biden's cover of a Kinnock speech goes unsmashed, and Biden would remain in this contest.
 

Sabin

Wasn't the Dukakis camp behind the Kinnock tape leak? Or was it an outside source that sent it to the Dukakis camp? Maybe without Dukakis, we get The Biden Express?
 

Gordian

modelcitizen said:
I think you left out Biden.

Without Dukakis and his campaign chief Sasso, Biden's cover of a Kinnock speech goes unsmashed, and Biden would remain in this contest.
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I thought that his health problems might prevent that from happening, but that makes sense.
 
V-J

V-J

modelcitizen said:
I think you left out Biden.

Without Dukakis and his campaign chief Sasso, Biden's cover of a Kinnock speech goes unsmashed, and Biden would remain in this contest.
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Biden's liberal use of the material of Kinnock, Bobby Kennedy, and suchlike, was already on its way out into the public domain. Need not assume it'll sink him in an identical John Sasso-devised 'gotcha' moment, rather than just blow a hole in his campaign, but it's certainly poss. A more organic trial-by-media, that's certainly possible.

But it's been noted many times that if Biden hadn't got out of that race, he could very well have got out of life. Either way, he certainly isn't going to be a candidate by the time the primaries come around.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Is there a southern governor somewhat on the conservative side who might enter the race?

And I mean someone older than Clinton. Maybe someone in his or her 50s?
 

Marky Bunny

Bob Graham might have got into the race Former Governor of Florida and elected to the Senate in 1986.
Although not from the South you have Governor Blanchard of Michigan, who had also served in the House, and of course Lloyd Bentsen who was Dukakis VP pick, but his time was past probably for the top job (note Mrs Thatcher said Bentsen was her favourite Democrat and would have made a fine President). Also Dale Bumpers was someone that Bill Clinton tried to get to run after he decided to sit the race out.
 
V-J

V-J

Marky Bunny said:
Bob Graham might have got into the race Former Governor of Florida and elected to the Senate in 1986.
Although not from the South you have Governor Blanchard of Michigan, who had also served in the House, and of course Lloyd Bentsen who was Dukakis VP pick, but his time was past probably for the top job (note Mrs Thatcher said Bentsen was her favourite Democrat and would have made a fine President). Also Dale Bumpers was someone that Bill Clinton tried to get to run after he decided to sit the race out.
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Only one of those had any serious interest in running, and that was Icewind Dale, but I don't see his early decision to abort his plans as being altered by this. But who the hell knows. There's certainly a sense of 'spaces to fill' in this scenario, but then, nobody knew at the start of '87 IOTL that Hart and Biden would be non-candidates before the year was out. (And I'd love to hear from those people who clicked Hart on the above poll, btw.)

Would be a damn strong candidate if he did, though, you're right in that much.
 

dw93

Honestly without Dukakis, that decreases the Democrats chance at winning (unless you change Biden's health, then he could very well get the nomination and beat Bush in a close one). '88 is too soon for Slick Willy, and after Hart's implosion, the rank and file of the party may talk him out of it. Even though he placed second place in the primaries, there's no way in hell the DNC is going to nominate Jesse Jackson, and if they did, it would be 1972 or 1984 all over again, or worse if enough of the Jewish vote goes to the GOP after the comments Jackson made about New York. So, my guess is it would be Gore vs. Gephardt, with Gore (who came in third OTL) closely winning it as a sacrificial lamb or as a trial run for '92.
 

John Farson

Banned
dw93 said:
Honestly without Dukakis, that decreases the Democrats chance at winning (unless you change Biden's health, then he could very well get the nomination and beat Bush in a close one). '88 is too soon for Slick Willy, and after Hart's implosion, the rank and file of the party may talk him out of it. Even though he placed second place in the primaries, there's no way in hell the DNC is going to nominate Jesse Jackson, and if they did, it would be 1972 or 1984 all over again, or worse if enough of the Jewish vote goes to the GOP after the comments Jackson made about New York. So, my guess is it would be Gore vs. Gephardt, with Gore (who came in third OTL) closely winning it as a sacrificial lamb or as a trial run for '92.
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Bar Jackson, I don't think anyone else would do as badly as Dukakis. Of course, if Gary Hart doesn't have his scandal he swoops up the nomination.
 

dw93

John Farson said:
Bar Jackson, I don't think anyone else would do as badly as Dukakis. Of course, if Gary Hart doesn't have his scandal he swoops up the nomination.
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Agreed about Hart, I don't see Gephardt or Gore, who I think would win ITTL, beating Bush though. Gore would do well in the south and maybe some great lake states, but not enough to win , and might to worse in the Northeast than Dukakis, so on the whole Gore vs. Bush '88 is the same as Duke vs. Bush '88 OTL by the margin of victory more or less. A scandal less Hart is the only Democrat I can see beating Bush.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Please don't write Jackson off entirely. He talked about the decline of the American middle class like Dukakis tried to and did a poor job at. He talked many of the issues Clinton was very successful with in the '92 campaign.

True, Jackson is neither a governor nor a senator, nor a vice-president. To me, this is a pretty high hurdle, but maybe someone sees a way.
 

dw93

mrbraingrayson said:
Jesse Jackson seems to be a good candidate,but I look for Gore to be his VP.
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He'd be another George McGovern if he were nominated in '88. '88 wasn't a cake walk for the GOP like '84 was, but it still favored them, so the Democrats needed the right candidate who had the right message, with a very strong campaign and Jackson wasn't that guy.
 

Somedevil

Why is no one talking about Bruce Babbitt ?

He was a governor from a more conservative state might be the true south but south west still is not liberal New England.
 
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