Wilson's stroke happens in 1917, how does President Marshall carry on Progressivism?

[The Undead Martyr]

I've encountered Thomas Marshall in my state constitutional law courses, and he seems rather cool. Which got me to thinking- what if Wilson had his stroke sooner? Marshall broadly refrained from trying to become acting president in OTL 1919, but I suspect if Wilson was out of commission for three years, critical years with the border scare vis a vis Mexico and of course the Zimmerman telegram, that eventually he would have had to take over. Marshall was a fairly strident progressive but also a proponent of bringing the US into WWI. More significantly, he was rather more collegial and less dictatorial than Wilson, and fairly popular as well. If nothing else, I suspect Marshall could secure re-election come 1920. This would have rather profound implications for US politics- among other things, FDR would probably be the Vice President for Marshall and may well go for the Presidency after Marshall is term limited. Revitalized progressivism and a partial avoidance of US isolationism (Marshall could probably manage to get ratification of the League of Nations through the Senate, since he wouldn't be as obstreperous about it as Wilson) would have fairly substantial implications going forward, and avoiding President Harding/Coolidge isn't a terrible outcome either.

 

[1940LaSalle]

I gather you're postulating that Wilson had his disabling stroke sometime around 1916. That does raise some interesting, if thorny problems.

• I don't believe there was a written protocol concerning presidential inability in 1916: the 25th amendment was still decades in the future. I'm guessing that once Wilson's inability to discharge his duties had become apparent to all within his administration, a move would have to be made starting with the Secretary of State (Robert Lansing at the time). Guessing but it might well have taken the form of a letter to the Speaker of the House, President pro tem of the Senate, and the Chief Justice that, in the opinion of the members of the Cabinet, the president was not able to discharge his duties given his illness and that until such time as he could prove his ability, vice president Marshall should act in his stead.
• The big problem comes at the 1916 convention: does the convention assume Wilson will recover and be able to discharge his duties, or does the convention assume the opposite? That opens the door for a nasty schism between Wilson loyalists who might see Marshall as a usurper, and more pragmatic Marshall supporters who assert that there needs to be a fully functional individual nominated. Might well get a split in the Democrats.
• If indeed there's a split, that pretty much paves the way for the election of Hughes, and not by some skinny margin, either. With Hughes, you're likely to get Theodore Roosevelt as Secretary of State (true, he and Hughes didn't really like each other much but both were professional enough to set aside personal differences for the good of the nation). Now it's up for grabs whether there's a Zimmermann telegram (the presence of TR might give the Germans pause) and/or unrestricted submarine warfare.
• Assuming that Germany is hell-bent on its clumsy attempts to keep the US occupied and the Zimmermann telegram does occur, the US will go to war. However, something like the Fourteen Points is not a given by any means. I would expect something roughly along the lines of the League of Nations to be proposed, though, given that Roosevelt called for an organization of that sort as early as 1905. Let's call it the Council of Nations for a convenient label: expect the necessary treaties to get through the Senate given that TR, Hughes, Henry Cabot Lodge and others would likely see eye to eye rather than have the fundamental disagreements with Wilson's LofN.
• Marshall, if voted out in 1916, would probably be done with politics. Wilson would also, given how stroke patients typically recovered ~105 years ago. Assuming James Cox were the Dems' nominee in 1920, he'd probably have an uphill fight against an incumbent who led the US to victory. Now you're looking at a very different, less isolationist 1920s--and quite possibly a decade without the xenophobia and overt acts of racism IOTL.