Wilson's Early Peace (1916-1917)

[Desert Journeyman]

Please help me evaluate the plausibility of the following scenario.

The Wilson peace plan of December 1916 bears fruit, but too late to spare the Russian and Ottoman Empires. Maybe the Germans get good terms because the negotiations drag out so long that the French Army Mutinies prompt the Allies to make unusually generous concessions?

Would the Germans be enticed to give up much of the High Seas Fleet? I doubt it, without a crushing battlefield defeat, but it's worth discussing since the original alternate history diverged with the scuttling at Scapa Flow.

Perhaps the Germans, satisfied that hostilities with the French and British will wind up, can divert more men to secondary fronts, such as the Italian, allowing a breakthrough to Venice?

When Russia descends into civil war in 1917, the Germans and their Austrian allies hop on the chance to create an independent Poland (complete with Lithuanian rump). Sweden steps in to shepherd Finnish, Latvian, and Estonian independence. The former Allies make appearances at Arkhangelsk, Vladivostok, and in the Caucasus, allowing the Whites to carve out permanent fronts in each location, propped up by British, Japanese, and Greek expeditionary forces, respectively.

At the conclusion of hostilities, Germany has gained a Polish puppet and considerable relief from Russian pressures. Her natural ally, Austria-Hungary, is still on life support, but has contended itself with making awkward meals of Bosnia and Venice. Bulgaria is gorged on Serbia, Montenegro, and lower Dobruja.

The Ottomans are carved up badly by the Allies. The idea is that the Germans throw them over after realizing that they the peace terms for themselves and their Austrian allies will be very favorable. By 1919, the Greeks jump on the Ottoman back, too, working hand-in-glove with the Allies to effectively inhale Eastern Anatolia and achieve the Megali Idea.

The Germans give up Alsace-Lorraine to the French, who call it victory. The British are pleased to absorb two of Germany's African colonies. The French enjoy a slice of Ottoman pie in Cilicia, where Italy is also given some real estate. The Portuguese and the United Netherlands are allowed to help themselves to pieces of German East Africa. The British generously allow the Germans to retain their colony in South West Africa. The Australians attempt to insist that they retain New Guinea, but it is returned to the Germans -- later acknowledged as a foolish mistake that compels the British to invest more heavily than otherwise in their Pacific defenses so as to soothe soured relations with the Aussies?

The Japanese, of course, gain Tsingtao. In the future, they will be poised for conflict with the Soviets and the Dutch, who retain colonial Formosa. I'd also venture to say that the Philippines seem a ripe prize.

Italy probably throws in its lot with the Germans next time around, hoping for a better outcome. It will now be an Axis of Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Poland-Lithuania versus the British, French, Chinese, and Whites. The Soviets are a wild card. Greece is nominally pro-Allied; the Kalmar Union, nominally pro-German.

 

[TRH]

No way the Germans give up Alsace-Lorraine willingly. For that matter, I don't see the Austrians taking Venetia, either. They have enough Italian troubles already.

 

[lukedalton]

There need some pretty strong reason for any side in 1916 to get at the negotiation table and even at this stage giving up territory will be equated to defeat or at least at 'mutilated victory'; on the specific if France and UK get at the negotiation table Italy will do the same as they are an ally and cannot be left alone plus everyone in Rome know that they can't fight alone.
Maybe a more succesfull Brusilov that while ending more or lessa as OTL and not knocking out A-H left her in a worse shape and more prone to negotiation launching an earlier 'Sistus affriar' and Wilson can take the occasion trying to be more forcefull with the Entente like menacing to cut off finance.
Basically at the end you get everyside pissed off because had suffered so much to achieve very little (compared to the price)

Germany: can give up the more French speaking part of A-L after a face saving referendum but not more and will need a lot of strongharm, maybe some compensation to Belgium but they will try to get their hand on Congo. Their colonial empire is gone and they know it, they will try to compensate with Russia and east europe.
Italy: probably will receive what agreed with A-H to remain neutral (ironically)...not that's such effort as it's already occupy this place, plus some other bits and ends of useless desert to compensate her
A-H: Serbia, Montenegro and whatever piece of Russia can take it will be their prize...but all the pre-war problem will remain and they will face some thought time

 

[Desert Journeyman]

My work on this alt-history began as a way to develop a user-designed map for Axis & Allies. I wanted to alter the status of a few nations at the periphery of the war so that more of the map would be in-play (e.g., the Nordic countries, the Bosporus, and South America).

Initially, the point-of-divergence was (more or less) June 1919. Von Reuter's plot to scuttle the High Seas Fleet is detected and averted. This leads, in turn, to the failure of the Washington Naval Conference and acrimony all around. The other significant changes are as follows: (1) Portugal retains her Brazilian colony; (2) Spain retains Peru, and the Spanish-American War never happens; (3) the Swedes opt to throw in with the Finns and the Baltic States during the Russian Revolution, leading to the formation of the so-called Kalmar Union, a loose self-defense compact, comprising Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia; and (4) the Greeks, with substantial assistance from the Entente powers, achieve a Pyrrhic victory in the Greco-Turkish War.

After settling on those core elements, we began to think about whether Eastern Europe could be reshaped by altering the fate of the White Movement in Russia.

The factor that I think makes peace possible in 1916 from the Allied perspective is the French Army Mutinies, which began just a few months after Wilson floated his suggestion of peace. My thought was that Germany, which had owned Alsace-Lorraine for only a generation at the start of the war, would concede to trade that, along with some of the colonial real estate she had already lost, for an end to hostilities in the West and what therefore amounted to a free hand in the East, along with over-generous terms for the Austro-Hungarians. The idea is that the Germans would interpret the preservation of the Dual Monarchy as a kind of boon to them, since it would strengthen their hand against Russia in the future.

A more successful Brusilov offensive would presumably lead to a revision of Germany's appraisal of Russia's position in the war. Might there be any potential for the Russians to have had some successes earlier in the war, adding weight to German fears? The Russians succeeded at Gumbinnen in August 1914, but the Germans found a note containing general information about Russian battle plans that contributed to the reverses culminating at Tannenberg. Perhaps the note is never lost?

What's to stop the British and French from concluding a separate peace at this stage? Would their publics really rally around the Italians?

I envision German being allowed to keep most of German East Africa simply because von Lettow-Vorbeck is still on the loose there.

What did Austria-Hungary offer the Italians? If the Italians are not at the table, I could envision the Germans transferring troops from the Western Front to effect a breakthrough on the Italian front.

Serbia survives, but truncated. Russia loses Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states, along with territory in the Caucasus and Crimea taken over by the Whites. The ultimate fate of the Whites is still to be discussed.

 

[TRH]

There's a lot to tackle in that post, but just to continue on the Alsace-Lorraine bit, you're seeing it from a modern perspective, where it's French land that was snatched up by the Germans for a short period. For the Germans, it had been German traditionally, only to be stolen by the French in the Thirty Years War, and they were simply taking it back. So handing it over again in a war that they don't see themselves as losing is verboten. And in general, I think the Entente needs to do worse across the board to consider peace in 1916 - as it was they were probably the bigger obstacle to negotiations, since they didn't see a benefit to making terms while the Germans occupied French territory. They'd need to think it was all over and they couldn't evict the CP's to consider diplomacy instead.

So a failed Brusilov Offensive plus French mutiny sounds like the better way to go. As for the Spanish and Portuguese stuff, they lost those colonies in the 1800's, so you'd need a POD farther back to get those results, but that would butterfly OTL's World War One, so I'd just scrap those plans.

 

[lukedalton]

What's to stop the British and French from concluding a separate peace at this stage? Would their publics really rally around the Italians?

I envision German being allowed to keep most of German East Africa simply because von Lettow-Vorbeck is still on the loose there.

What did Austria-Hungary offer the Italians? If the Italians are not at the table, I could envision the Germans transferring troops from the Western Front to effect a breakthrough on the Italian front.

Because it's not that way that diplomacy work expecially if anyone and his dog know that this will be a something of temporary and any negotiation between UK, France and Germany will be a secret for two or three second in the diplomatic circle and creating a shitstorm while exit the war immediately even worsening the negotiation capacity of the remaining power.
OTL A-H offered peace during the 'Sistus Affair' but refused compensation to Italy and so Rome vetoed any overture and the rest of the Entente agreed to honor their deal, so i doubt that will left Rome alone diplomatically leaving her out of the negotiation table

So a failed Brusilov Offensive plus French mutiny sounds like the better way to go. As for the Spanish and Portuguese stuff, they lost those colonies in the 1800's, so you'd need a POD farther back to get those results, but that would butterfly OTL's World War One, so I'd just scrap those plans.

The problem in this scenario is: why the German need to go for the peace table if they are winning? Two are needed to dance a tango, if Wilson come to Europe to propose a peace, Berlin will basically offer term comparable to the Septemberprogram not any negotiated terms can can be seen as giving up something.
You need a situation where both side are both more bloodied than OTL and stalemated so negotiating is the better way, for this reason a peace with Russia but with the Ottoman and the A-H in worst state can 'maybe' work

 

[Desert Journeyman]

So it seems that the war goes much less well for the British and the French, but substantially better for the Russians. When Wilson offers a way out, London and Paris jump at the chance, leaving Russia and Italy in the lurch. Since affairs in Russia have reached their revolutionary boiling point, the backlash is muted. The Western Allies favor the Whites, who anyway must grin and bear the hand they are dealt. It’s a rum deal that the Italians get, but the British Government intends to compensate them with territory carved from the Ottoman carcass. Possibly the French will concede to part with Corsica or Tunisia?

In terms of German success in the West, an offensive during the French Army Mutinies is the obvious thing. In “Behold, A Pale Horse,” Xhavnak suggested that the British might have employed their signals intelligence in a manner such that the effectiveness of German submarine warfare is reduced temporarily – only to gain in strength and duration over time, and in such manner that significantly reduces the offensive given to the Americans.

Xhavnak sends much of the High Seas Fleet to the bottom in his alternate history. I was hoping to make the division of that fleet a major element of the inter-war story, but I confess to being unable to see why Germany would part with its naval metal unless subjected to total defeat.

What about leaving Alsace-Lorraine with the Germans? Would the French have made peace without recovering that patrimony?

Let’s leave aside the Portuguese and the Spanish, along with the United Netherlands. The Spanish retain Cuba, Portugal, and the Philippines but are bankrupt. (It is an open secret that the cruisers at anchor in Manilla Bay will never sail again.) The Portuguese retain a gradually-loosening grip on Brazil. They also hold Ceylon and the Trucial states. The United Netherlands encompasses the Transvaal and Formosa as well as all historical Dutch and Belgian colonial possessions circa 1936. Let me know if you see things veeringly wildly off-course because of any of these changes. I’m honestly willing to Alien Space Bat it. I fully expect the Japanese to annex the minor European colonies within short order.

I like the idea of the Russian steamroller proving more effective. The idea is that the Germans use the opening provided by relief in the West to shore up their faltering Austrian ally on both the southern and eastern fronts.

 

[docfl]

At that point of the war, Wilson was more upset at the allies. The British blockade was harming US business. Would Wilson use that to add pressure?

 

[Desert Journeyman]

Yes, that is my assessment of what Wilson might do.

As a thought, we could also borrow Xhavnak's ideas about a more successful British advance against the Ottomans. That would put the Central Powers on alert that a good deal of British and French resources are about to be repurposed.