Will a Belgian Partition in 1830 butterfly 1848 and German Unification

Friedrich der Große

Friedrich der Große

If the Dutch Ten Days Campaign in 1830 was more succesfull and Belgium would be partitioned between The Netherlands, France and Prussia, what would be the effects on especially the Revolutions of 1848 and the German Unification.

So let us say that Belgium is partitioned in the following form: West-Flanders, East-Flanders, Antwerp and Limburg stay Dutch, even as the Northern parts of South-Brabant (OTL Flemish Brabant). France gets Hainaut and the remander of South-Brabant. And last but not least Prussia gets the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and Liege and Namur east of the Meusse. The remander of Liege and Namur would also go to France.

So would this butterfly away 1848 Revolutions and the German Unification?
 

Nivek

PBErik said:
And the additions of Hainaut and the parts of South Brabant, Liege and Namur won’t change this?
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Nope the problem of the failed July monarchy were internal, never externar,now you add extra population when culturally french would hate the neo absolutism of the bourbon. Short of a more successful July revolution Make a constitutional monarchy, french snowball is coming
 
Friedrich der Große

Friedrich der Große

Nivek said:
Nope the problem of the failed July monarchy were internal, never externar,now you add extra population when culturally french would hate the neo absolutism of the bourbon. Short of a more successful July revolution Make a constitutional monarchy, french snowball is coming
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And for the German Unification?
 
H.Flashman(VC)

H.Flashman(VC)

For 1848 Netherlands, it will be important when this peace comes. During 9 years Willem I left the army in war standing and this created a debt, which he tried to conceal for parliament. Parliament began a strugle to gain at least some control of the finances. This became one of the factors of the rise of the liberals in the Netherlands.
 
Friedrich der Große

Friedrich der Große

H.Flashman(VC) said:
For 1848 Netherlands, it will be important when this peace comes. During 9 years Willem I left the army in war standing and this created a debt, which he tried to conceal for parliament. Parliament began a strugle to gain at least some control of the finances. This became one of the factors of the rise of the liberals in the Netherlands.
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The peace comes in 1831 so there is no ‘Volhardingspolitiek’, as the Dutch describe the politics of Willem I during 1831-1839 when he left the army in war standing and created a debt.
 

pompejus

PBErik said:
If the Dutch Ten Days Campaign in 1830 was more succesfull and Belgium would be partitioned between The Netherlands, France and Prussia, what would be the effects on especially the Revolutions of 1848 and the German Unification.

So let us say that Belgium is partitioned in the following form: West-Flanders, East-Flanders, Antwerp and Limburg stay Dutch, even as the Northern parts of South-Brabant (OTL Flemish Brabant). France gets Hainaut and the remander of South-Brabant. And last but not least Prussia gets the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and Liege and Namur east of the Meusse. The remander of Liege and Namur would also go to France.

So would this butterfly away 1848 Revolutions and the German Unification?
Click to expand...
I have my doubts about this partition. Brussels will not become part of the Netherlands. It was basicly the starting point of the Belgian revolt. Is suspect the Brussels and probably all of southern Brabant will end up French. Also, why would Prussia get so much land. Prussia wasn't realy involved in the Belgian revolt (and if it was, it would probably have supported the Netherlands). At best I would see Prussia gaining Luxemburg, possibly only eastern Luxemburg.

Also, I think your POD is off. The ten days campaign was pretty succesful. It was the French intervention that changed everything. I think a better POD would be either a Belgian revolt that was more interested in joining France instead of independence, or a France that would be far more interested in annexing Belgium, or possibly foreign intervention on the Dutch side, so the Dutch get a better deal.
 

NedStark

PBErik said:
If the Dutch Ten Days Campaign in 1830 was more succesfull and Belgium would be partitioned between The Netherlands, France and Prussia, what would be the effects on especially the Revolutions of 1848 and the German Unification
Click to expand...
A successful Dutch Ten Days means the Dutch retaining all of Belgium. However, the House of Oranges would sit on a powderkeg ITTL. A 1848 Revolution would have happened, and ITTL the Oranges would have been out, instead of just constitutional reforms like IOTL. The OTL reforms were modelled after Belgian reforms IOTL - unfortunately Belgium would not exist ITTL.
 
Aghasverov

Aghasverov

It's interesting... I remember reading a long time ago that in some rural parts of Europe, the year "1848" acquired a near-mythological status in the "folk memory" of the locals.... That expressions like "it was 1848 that changed everything" or "everything was different before 1848" weren't uncommon - even if the locals couldn't recount exactly what happened in 1848...
I try not to use the word "inevitable" on here :) so let's just say that I think it was highly likely that something major would happen around that time. The years leading up to 1848 were bad ones for much of Europe - bad harvests, potato blight and famine (and not just in Ireland), coupled with rising resentment among intellectuals and students against the largely reactionary governments that had been re-installed post-1815... it was the proverbial powder keg.
I doubt a different outcome in Belgium would've much changed that... some major shit was about to hit the fan :)
 
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