The question is what would have happened if Tymoshenko had won instead of Yanukovich?
Tymoshenko in that candidate represented the pro-Orange Revolution, pro-western camp. But throughout Yuschenko's term she had quarreled with him, had nearly allied with Yanukovych in a "Grand Alliance," and had flip-flopped over being pro-Russian or pro-EU. (She had negotiated a gas deal with Putin that was highly favorable to Russia.)
So how do things develop? I assume she pursues a pro-EU course given her coalition. Does she sign an EU Association Agreement? And if so, does Putin deign to invade or seize Crimea, or does he stay out, since OTL his actions were driven by humiliation over Yanukovych's flight and by his fear of revolution? (Maidan in this TL may not happen if she signs the Association Agreement.)
On the flip side, part of what led to Yanukovych's flip flop over the AA was blackmail by Russia and fear that Russia would tear up the gas deal.
MODS, feel free to move to chat if this seems too close to current events.
Tymoshenko in that candidate represented the pro-Orange Revolution, pro-western camp. But throughout Yuschenko's term she had quarreled with him, had nearly allied with Yanukovych in a "Grand Alliance," and had flip-flopped over being pro-Russian or pro-EU. (She had negotiated a gas deal with Putin that was highly favorable to Russia.)
So how do things develop? I assume she pursues a pro-EU course given her coalition. Does she sign an EU Association Agreement? And if so, does Putin deign to invade or seize Crimea, or does he stay out, since OTL his actions were driven by humiliation over Yanukovych's flight and by his fear of revolution? (Maidan in this TL may not happen if she signs the Association Agreement.)
On the flip side, part of what led to Yanukovych's flip flop over the AA was blackmail by Russia and fear that Russia would tear up the gas deal.
MODS, feel free to move to chat if this seems too close to current events.