I just had an interesting idea when I saw that other thread about Romania apparently offering Poland assistance in September 1939. Here’s what I said about it:
As many of you most certainly know, France and Britain actually did consider an attack on the USSR in the early stages of the war, so this wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. But the more I thought about it, the crazier the possibilities seemed to be that such a turn of events might create.
So let’s say Romania enters the war on Poland’s side, and both Hungary and the USSR invade the country; Stalin wants Bessarabia, while the Hungarians want Transylvania. In response, Britain and France declare war on the USSR (and Hungary, I guess). Stalin, in turn, will most likely turn his eyes on Persia once Finland and Romania are dealt with – he doesn’t really have any other way of striking at Britain or France otherwise.
Of course, declaring war on the USSR while still fighting Germany is a bad idea, which Britain and France quickly realize. Should Stalin’s invasion of Persia succeed, he might turn his eyes then either on the middle east and its vital oilfields, or India. The western powers need another powerful ally, one that is able to strike at the USSR in a way that they cannot. And there is such a potential ally, one which fought the USSR just a few months earlier on the Manchurian/Mongolian border: Japan.
Now, Japan was quite wary of fighting the USSR after their defeat at Khalkin Gol in 1939, but could the western powers be able to convince Japan to enter the war against the USSR anyway? What could they offer in return? Well, for one, Britain and France might offer to cease any support for the Chinese forces currently fighting the Japanese, and to prevent any supplies from reaching the Chinese through India, Burma or Indochina. They might even use those routes to supply the Japanese instead. Maybe they agree to let them buy/license British and French tanks, something which the Japanese certainly need (their tanks kind of sucked).
So let’s say by spring 1940 Japan is ready and declares war on the USSR, followed by an invasion of Mongolia and the Soviet far east. Japan doesn’t declare war on Germany however, they make it clear that this is strictly between them and the Russians. The Japanese invasion forces Stalin to divert troops to the far east, giving the French and British in the middle east some breathing room. However, things take a turn for the worse for them when Germany invades France. The French recall their forces from the middle eastern theater, since they’re more urgently needed at home, but to no avail, and France probably falls in a similar manner to OTL.
Now the British are kind of screwed; not only did they lose their main ally, but now they’re fighting the Soviets in the middle east all on their own, followed by the Germans and Italians shortly after, who invade Egypt. American support for Britain probably also isn’t quite at the same level as OTL, due to the latter’s alliance with Japan. But while it would make sense to ask for peace, I’m not sure if Churchill would go for it, even under these circumstances.
The Japanese are pretty annoyed as well, since their invasion most likely doesn’t go very well. In fact, I would expect the Soviets to not only have driven them out of their territory pretty quickly, but to have launched a counter invasion of Manchuria. The Soviets will also most likely massively support the Chinese, making up for China’s loss of western support.
I would expect the British to be on the verge of defeat in the middle east by 1941, being pressed from both east and west by the Soviets and Germans respectively (the Germans have probably crossed the Suez, while the Soviets might already have crossed the Indo-Persian border at that point). The Japanese meanwhile have probably been driven out of Manchuria entirely, and are now fighting the Soviets (and their Chinese allies) not only in China proper, but possibly also in Korea.
The question is, where do things go from there? Does Hitler decide to delay the invasion of the USSR until Britain is forced to sue for peace, or does he attack Russia while they are still fighting the British and Japanese? If he invades, how does Britain react? I’d assume the Japanese are going breath a huge sigh of relief, but I’m less sure about Britain. What does Stalin do? Does he send out peace feelers to the British and Japanese? Or do we see confused three-way battles between the British, Soviets and Germans in the middle east? What would the Americans think of all of this, or world opinion in general?
As many of you most certainly know, France and Britain actually did consider an attack on the USSR in the early stages of the war, so this wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. But the more I thought about it, the crazier the possibilities seemed to be that such a turn of events might create.
So let’s say Romania enters the war on Poland’s side, and both Hungary and the USSR invade the country; Stalin wants Bessarabia, while the Hungarians want Transylvania. In response, Britain and France declare war on the USSR (and Hungary, I guess). Stalin, in turn, will most likely turn his eyes on Persia once Finland and Romania are dealt with – he doesn’t really have any other way of striking at Britain or France otherwise.
Of course, declaring war on the USSR while still fighting Germany is a bad idea, which Britain and France quickly realize. Should Stalin’s invasion of Persia succeed, he might turn his eyes then either on the middle east and its vital oilfields, or India. The western powers need another powerful ally, one that is able to strike at the USSR in a way that they cannot. And there is such a potential ally, one which fought the USSR just a few months earlier on the Manchurian/Mongolian border: Japan.
Now, Japan was quite wary of fighting the USSR after their defeat at Khalkin Gol in 1939, but could the western powers be able to convince Japan to enter the war against the USSR anyway? What could they offer in return? Well, for one, Britain and France might offer to cease any support for the Chinese forces currently fighting the Japanese, and to prevent any supplies from reaching the Chinese through India, Burma or Indochina. They might even use those routes to supply the Japanese instead. Maybe they agree to let them buy/license British and French tanks, something which the Japanese certainly need (their tanks kind of sucked).
So let’s say by spring 1940 Japan is ready and declares war on the USSR, followed by an invasion of Mongolia and the Soviet far east. Japan doesn’t declare war on Germany however, they make it clear that this is strictly between them and the Russians. The Japanese invasion forces Stalin to divert troops to the far east, giving the French and British in the middle east some breathing room. However, things take a turn for the worse for them when Germany invades France. The French recall their forces from the middle eastern theater, since they’re more urgently needed at home, but to no avail, and France probably falls in a similar manner to OTL.
Now the British are kind of screwed; not only did they lose their main ally, but now they’re fighting the Soviets in the middle east all on their own, followed by the Germans and Italians shortly after, who invade Egypt. American support for Britain probably also isn’t quite at the same level as OTL, due to the latter’s alliance with Japan. But while it would make sense to ask for peace, I’m not sure if Churchill would go for it, even under these circumstances.
The Japanese are pretty annoyed as well, since their invasion most likely doesn’t go very well. In fact, I would expect the Soviets to not only have driven them out of their territory pretty quickly, but to have launched a counter invasion of Manchuria. The Soviets will also most likely massively support the Chinese, making up for China’s loss of western support.
I would expect the British to be on the verge of defeat in the middle east by 1941, being pressed from both east and west by the Soviets and Germans respectively (the Germans have probably crossed the Suez, while the Soviets might already have crossed the Indo-Persian border at that point). The Japanese meanwhile have probably been driven out of Manchuria entirely, and are now fighting the Soviets (and their Chinese allies) not only in China proper, but possibly also in Korea.
The question is, where do things go from there? Does Hitler decide to delay the invasion of the USSR until Britain is forced to sue for peace, or does he attack Russia while they are still fighting the British and Japanese? If he invades, how does Britain react? I’d assume the Japanese are going breath a huge sigh of relief, but I’m less sure about Britain. What does Stalin do? Does he send out peace feelers to the British and Japanese? Or do we see confused three-way battles between the British, Soviets and Germans in the middle east? What would the Americans think of all of this, or world opinion in general?