WI white Mozambique south of the Limpopo.

[Ameck16]

The white Portuguese in Mozambique where about 370000 in number in 1975 while found all over the colony they had the largest population in Maputo region, so WI during the during the war, before 1970 the whites predicted they where going to get kicked out and decided to cut out a part of the former colony to start there own country using the Limpopo as a natural barrier from the rest of the Mozambique.

1. Would they be able to do this and if they did how would they go about it, could they get help from South Africa.

2. Would they be recognised by the international community.

3. Would they be able function as a country, economically, politically and militarily.

4.What would happen to the Angolan whites since in otl they either went to Portugal or South Africa would they be tempted to join their counterparts in South Mozambique, if they did what would the demographic of this country look like.

 

[iori]

Going by a quick look through the area would have a population in 1970 of around 1.1 million, so even if all the Whites from the rest of the country move there, they're still going to be the minority, a very large minority (34-37% of the population), but they're not going to be able to say go the South Africa route an have a government ruled by the White population.

To answer the questions;

1. & 2. If it was done right I think it's possible, say get the U.S. as an ally by playing the anti-Communist card, don't be huge dicks, get the local black population on their side; not associating itself with and actually being negative towards South Africa would actually help internally and internationally.

3. Assuming it's not constantly being attacked, then yes, IIRC the area is even now among the best off parts of the country.

4. I don't think all White Angolans would go there, and I have no idea as to how many would so I can't answer the question.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Going by a quick look through the area would have a population in 1970 of around 1.1 million, so even if all the Whites from the rest of the country move there, they're still going to be the minority, a very large minority (34-37% of the population), but they're not going to be able to say go the South Africa route an have a government ruled by the White population.

34-37% is more than enough to maintain white minority rule for a long time. Whites as a whole are only 9% of the South African population (2011 stats).

 

[iori]

34-37% is more than enough to maintain white minority rule for a long time. Whites as a whole are only 9% of the South African population (2011 stats).

That would be because of a long history in South Africa's case, an established state and a population that was more than just Black and White; additionally during Apartheid the White population comprised more of the population (nearly a million White South Africans have left since 1995).

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

That would be because of a long history in South Africa's case, an established state and a population that was more than just Black and White; additionally during Apartheid the White population comprised more of the population (nearly a million White South Africans have left since 1995).

Actually, it's estimated at half a million, not a million. Even if it was a million, that would mean there would be about 5.2 million whites in a country of 53 million. That's still not even 10%.

Apartheid as a legal institution was actually only instituted in the late 1940s. Prior to that it was just typical colonial racist prejudice as seen elsewhere in Africa. Mozambique wouldn't have been much different.

 

[iori]

Actually, it's estimated at half a million, not a million. Even if it was a million, that would mean there would be about 5.2 million whites in a country of 53 million. That's still not even 10%.

You're not taking into account uneven population growth; in 1977 there were 4.3 million White South Africans, which amounted to 16.4% of the population, additionally at the beginning of the dismantling of Apartheid in 1991 there were 5.06 million White South Africans, which was 14.1% of the population at the time.

As to the amount who've left, the South African Institute of Race Relations estimated that between 1995 to 2008 around 800,000 had left; additionally the South African Census numbers back this up as in the 1991 Census there were 5,068,300 Whites while the 1996 Census showed that it had dropped to 4,434,700 and the 2001 Census even further to 4,293,640.

Now, in recent years this has stopped and natural population growth and a return of some of those that left has increased the population to the point that in the 2011 Census White South Africans numbered 4,586,838, however overall it's still a huge amount of people that left and not even half have returned.

Apartheid as a legal institution was actually only instituted in the late 1940s.

More strict and explicitly racist laws were however instituted or were trying to be passed before then though.

Prior to that it was just typical colonial racist prejudice as seen elsewhere in Africa. Mozambique wouldn't have been much different.

Except, despite his faults, Salazar purposefully sought to make the Portuguese empire a racially equal one and as such, while racism certainly existed, it was nowhere comparable to South Africa.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Except, despite his faults, Salazar purposefully sought to make the Portuguese empire a racially equal one and as such, while racism certainly existed, it was nowhere comparable to South Africa.

The opinions of leaders in the metropole rarely have enormous significance in colonial communities. The settlers on the ground are still the ones that are advantaged by dispossessing or marginalising the natives. The example of South Africa supports that. Despite the United Kingdom disagreeing with the Apartheid system, whites in South Africa were allowed to continue the policy.

In New Zealand, most of the time the Crown sought to side with the local Maori against excesses by settlers and traders. In fact, at least part of the reason for the annexation was to protect local Maori tribes from the criminal actions of sailors, whalers and the like in New Zealand. Didn't stop Maori from being marginalised ever since.

 

[The Uchronian]

Portuguese Africa never had self-government to the extent that South Africa did (from 1951 to 1972 they had no effective self-government; and the move towards autonomy in the 1972-1974 was incomplete at best, and never matched the level to which South Africa was autonomous from London).

Didn't South Africa actually go so far as to leave the Commonwealth altogether in 1961, because of the controversies over Apartheid and such?

 

[iori]

Didn't South Africa actually go so far as to leave the Commonwealth altogether in 1961, because of the controversies over Apartheid and such?

It's membership ended when it voted to be a Republic, and when they realized that their re-application as a Commonwealth Republic would be rejected they dropped it.

 

[Essam]

Except, despite his faults, Salazar purposefully sought to make the Portuguese empire a racially equal one and as such, while racism certainly existed, it was nowhere comparable to South Africa.

The opinions of leaders in the metropole rarely have enormous significance in colonial communities. The settlers on the ground are still the ones that are advantaged by dispossessing or marginalising the natives. The example of South Africa supports that. Despite the United Kingdom disagreeing with the Apartheid system, whites in South Africa were allowed to continue the policy.

I think a white-dominated, but not apartheid state, anti-Communist would be very likely not only a key western ally in the region, but could serve as a mediator and porto-rainbow republic for the South Africans. We could see them helping, albeit legally and morally, anti-apartheid whites and blacks in SA, as well as receiving large amounts of Coloured immigrants from SA. Especially if it remains close with Portugal and secedes amicably with Mozambique (excluding the communists would most certainly be revanchists.)

 

[Lost Freeway]

Shouldn't this be in After 1900?

 

[Desert Journeyman]

So you’re talking about a white settler enclave with capital at Lourenço Marques. Not impossible. Both absolutely and relatively speaking, you are probably looking at a settler regime with more favorable demographics than those of Rhodesia.

First, you need to answer the question of whether there was actually a potential for the area south of the Limpopo to accommodate so many people, many of whom will arrive with nothing. The situation will be further complicated by the generally low standard of education peculiar to Portugal at that time. Remember that, IOTL, many of the settlers who will presumably people this enclave in fact returned to the metropole and became dependent upon charity.

Second, will there be an international reaction comparable to what was seen after Rhodesia’s declaration of independence? Presumably the affront to international sensibilities will be as severe. Is it possible that the Beira Patrol would be extended to focus exclusively on the region south of the Limpopo?

Third, it seems almost inevitable that an enclave such as this would become a South African client. I don’t see a situation in which Portuguese whites give up their privilege in the name of amity. Remember: with so many low-skilled whites, there will be few opportunities for blacks.

Fourth, it is almost certain that guerilla forces, supported by the new regime in the north, would descend on the new enclave almost at once. Will enough of the Portuguese Army resident there be willing to stay and fight, or will they prefer to return to Europe? I don't think you could expect much. The Rhodesians would be only too happy to cooperate militarily, but in fact there is no shared border between the two, and therefore no practical means by which the Rhodesians could intervene. The South Africans would probably provide military assistance, but it is difficult to envision that the new settler regime would be viable economically.

 

[Antipater]

I don't think that this is impossible. But for such a state to actually get foreign support would require a few changes. The most important of which would have to that South Africa would have to take a much more aggressive "forward defense" posture in its immediate neighborhood. The South Africans were not very strongly committed to defending the Rhodesians, in spite of the cultural affinity, so I have a hard time seeing them exert any more effort to defend a cultural group they have even less in common with save a common "race."

I think the best case scenario for a breakaway Mozambique "white" republic would be a more chaotic transition from colonial rule to independence. Perhaps the Carnation Revolution gets out of hand, and rather than handing over rule of Mozambique to the FRELMO communists, the coup leaders fall out with the more right wing elements of the military under Spinola. If there is a breakdown of order in the colony, and at least some military elements decide to stay put, then you at least have the basic building blocks of a state at that point.

Militarily, I think such an enclave could hold out for some time, especially if the FRELMO government can be confronted by rebels within its borders. However, I would expect the enclave to be entirely dependent on South Africa, which would be expending its limited military resources for a relatively small gain.

 

[Desert Journeyman]

The South Africans were fighting their own war in Angola, and later, Namibia, while also trying to sustain the Rhodesians.

Pretoria must have realized the importance of encouraging the existence of other white settler states. Remember that South African troops were allowed by the Portuguese to occupy the CaluequeDam before Angola gained its independence. When South Africa seized a number of Polish tanks en route to a Soviet ally, they turned them over to the Rhodesians, whom they also furnished with armored cars.

South Africa was also pressured by the West into abandoning Rhodesia in 1979.

I agree with Antipater that the most direct way to a viable state involves the defection of a large number of Portuguese troops. But that doesn't help create viable economic conditions to sustain a massive population of poor whites.

 

[TinyTartar]

I think this is viable, provided that this country quickly comes to some kind of relationship with the black majority rest of the country and the blacks in the new state.

They could immediately turn towards South Africa, Rhodesia, the US, Israel, Francoist Spain, etc. as countries to trade with and get diplomatic and economic ties with.

The international community I think would be fine with it, as unlike with Rhodesia, it would be partitioned and engaging with the system.

Now, the Soviets might try to stir something up, but this state will have enough support likely to head that kind of thing off. As long as they were racially equal enough, as in better than their neighbors and closer to Salazar's idea, it should be fine.