Despite there being only eight U.S. Presidents who have died in office, there are dozens of cases of officeholders being placed in severe danger. Lyndon Johnson was almost shot by his bodyguard the night after the Kennedy assassination. Grover Cleveland had a tumor removed in the dead of night aboard a yacht. Yet, one of the most dangerous incidents in American history occurred in 1790. During a major outbreak of sickness in New York, George Washington was struck by a bad cold, which developed into influenza over the following weeks. Incapable and bedridden, panic swept through government. In her personal letters, Abigail Adams wrote,
The PoD then, is as follows: What if George Washington had died of influenza in Spring 1790?
The first question that comes to mind is: “How does the First Party System develop under President Adams?”
Early America had no political parties because of Washington’s widespread popularity and philosophical opposition among the Framers to factionalism. By 1790, however, both Hamilton and Madison had started building Congressional coalitions to support their policy recommendations. Although intended to be an informal alliance limited to the capital, strong media focus turned the groups into nationwide factions, with supporters spanning local, state, and federal government. The Federalists and Democratic-Republicans officially formed as political clubs in 1793, but did not become enemies until the following year with the Jay Treaty.
Common thought on this website is that, without Washington, political polarization is likely to happen faster. Adams lacks the broad support of Washington and he is an avid proponent of a strong national government. What is often overlooked, however, is how much Hamilton and Adams despise each other. During an era when political parties are dominated more by personality than ideology, the two are extremely unlikely to work together. Adams does not need Hamilton’s web of supporters as in OTL to gain the Presidency and, as a result, probably not join the Federalist Party. This action, in turn, splits the Federalists where New England is dominated by Adams supporters, the Middle States are dominated by proto-Federalists, and the South is dominated by proto-Democratic-Republicans.
With a much smaller base of supporters, I cannot imagine this situation leading to anything except the earlier collapse of the Federalist Party.
The second question that occurs to me is, "How does the Presidency develop without Washington's influence?"
The most obvious response is that the two term custom never develops. John Adams is likely to run until he loses, meaning that future Presidents will be willing to run until death. Another issue is Adams legitimacy. John Tyler's presidency was constantly questioned, with many arguing that a new election ought to be held upon death of the President. Even though the Constitution lays out general procedure, it is vague regarding the issue of succession. If Adams and Jefferson become hostile as OTL, the Democratic-Republicans may push the issue. Tensions will become exacerbated and it is difficult to imagine how the situation could be resolved.
There are other issues at play, including: The Whiskey Rebellion, Foreign Relations, and the development of the Vice Presidency (which will likely stand vacant until 1792). I think that this is a fascinating PoD and would love to hear some thoughts on how this situation would play out.
Her husband expressed similar worries, fearing that Washington’s death and his ascension to the Presidency would tear the Union apart. Although Washington did eventually recover, the incident provided enough momentum for Congress to pass the Presidential Succession Act of 1792 despite deep partisan divides.
The PoD then, is as follows: What if George Washington had died of influenza in Spring 1790?
The first question that comes to mind is: “How does the First Party System develop under President Adams?”
Early America had no political parties because of Washington’s widespread popularity and philosophical opposition among the Framers to factionalism. By 1790, however, both Hamilton and Madison had started building Congressional coalitions to support their policy recommendations. Although intended to be an informal alliance limited to the capital, strong media focus turned the groups into nationwide factions, with supporters spanning local, state, and federal government. The Federalists and Democratic-Republicans officially formed as political clubs in 1793, but did not become enemies until the following year with the Jay Treaty.
Common thought on this website is that, without Washington, political polarization is likely to happen faster. Adams lacks the broad support of Washington and he is an avid proponent of a strong national government. What is often overlooked, however, is how much Hamilton and Adams despise each other. During an era when political parties are dominated more by personality than ideology, the two are extremely unlikely to work together. Adams does not need Hamilton’s web of supporters as in OTL to gain the Presidency and, as a result, probably not join the Federalist Party. This action, in turn, splits the Federalists where New England is dominated by Adams supporters, the Middle States are dominated by proto-Federalists, and the South is dominated by proto-Democratic-Republicans.
With a much smaller base of supporters, I cannot imagine this situation leading to anything except the earlier collapse of the Federalist Party.
The second question that occurs to me is, "How does the Presidency develop without Washington's influence?"
The most obvious response is that the two term custom never develops. John Adams is likely to run until he loses, meaning that future Presidents will be willing to run until death. Another issue is Adams legitimacy. John Tyler's presidency was constantly questioned, with many arguing that a new election ought to be held upon death of the President. Even though the Constitution lays out general procedure, it is vague regarding the issue of succession. If Adams and Jefferson become hostile as OTL, the Democratic-Republicans may push the issue. Tensions will become exacerbated and it is difficult to imagine how the situation could be resolved.
There are other issues at play, including: The Whiskey Rebellion, Foreign Relations, and the development of the Vice Presidency (which will likely stand vacant until 1792). I think that this is a fascinating PoD and would love to hear some thoughts on how this situation would play out.
