WI: Wallies attack Berlin first

What if the Germans somehow got tipped of about Bagratian and otherwise pursued a policy of more defense in the East, falling back before having AGC be annihilated and holding a more rational defense line at the Carpathian Mountains. Any delays in the East ultimately lead to resources diverted to the West, so the only real long term difference is that the Allies are maybe 100 miles ahead of OTL and decide to make the strike at the "prize."

Who would be entering Berlin? Just British? British and American? Any French and Polish?

Further, would the Germans put up less determined resistance or would this be an absolute blood bath?

Lastly, if German resistance essentially is collapsing, does Hitler decide to fight on?
 
Depends how far east the Russians are. If they are in Warsaw, the Germans will use everything they have got to defend berlin, even at the cost of the eastern front. If the Russians are on the modern german border, the fighting will be less fierce as it was the WAllies OTL who many Nazis tried to surrender to as they probably wouldn't stick you in a ice bath.
 
If I understand correctly, everything is mostly the same except that the lines where Allies and Soviets meet are around a 100 miles east. Not much in postwar occupation is changed except the Allies could conceivably reach the Oder and Patton probably liberates Prague when the war ends in May/June.

Unless things are very different in January 1945, the Yalta Agreement still confirms the same occupation zones.

Whether or not Berlin falls to the Western Allies depends on if Eisenhower believes the city can be taken with low casualties. If it can, Eisenhower and Marshall may think it worth the political risk of angering Stalin. If not, likely Ike calls a halt before he reaches fortified lines. He tells Stalin the Western Allies are prepared to make a combined assault on Berlin once the Red Army arrives. In the meantime, effort is made to push forward to other areas.

Another possible departure is that the US is able to seize more of the German atomic scientists and uranium, giving a slight setback to the Soviet Atomic Program. Most of the good technical research and scientists the Soviets nabbed happened to be in the areas of Berlin that would become the western sector (Manfred von Ardenne's private laboratory Forschungslaboratorium für Elektronenphysik in Berlin-Lichterfelde, the Siemens Research Laboratory II in Berlin-Siemensstadt, the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry in Berlin-Dahlem, and the Physical Chemistry Institute at the Technische Hochschule Berlin in Berlin-Charlottenburg). The US and British might take them outright. If not, the Soviets will have zero time to exploit the area before the Yanks and Brits show up to occupy their zones. A lot of the German scientists taken by the Soviets to work on nuclear research (whether on the bomb itself, or one of the ancillary projects) will be in Allied custody.

With the Allies so close, it'd be interesting to see if the Americans make an attempt to take the one German atomic research center that won't be in their sector - the Auergesellschaft plant in Oranienburg which processed uranium. IOTL, on March 15, 1945 the 8th Air Force bombed it specifically to obstruct the Russians from using it.

This won't stop the Soviets from developing a bomb, but it will put a delay in. Maybe one or two years. If Stalin doesn't have a bomb in 1950, does he give the OK to the Korean War?

Most things won't change except that the Czech portion of Czechoslovakia won't be occupied by the Red Army. That means there won't be gangs of local Communists who set themselves up as local police. That maybe means that the Communists aren't as successful taking over all levels of the police when Benes appoints them as Minister of the Interior. He'll still do that however, giving them some leverage. The Czech coup could still very well happen, but there is a chance things are different enough that the anti-Communists are able to prevent it.
 
If I understand correctly, everything is mostly the same except that the lines where Allies and Soviets meet are around a 100 miles east. Not much in postwar occupation is changed except the Allies could conceivably reach the Oder and Patton probably liberates Prague when the war ends in May/June.

Unless things are very different in January 1945, the Yalta Agreement still confirms the same occupation zones.

Whether or not Berlin falls to the Western Allies depends on if Eisenhower believes the city can be taken with low casualties. If it can, Eisenhower and Marshall may think it worth the political risk of angering Stalin. If not, likely Ike calls a halt before he reaches fortified lines. He tells Stalin the Western Allies are prepared to make a combined assault on Berlin once the Red Army arrives. In the meantime, effort is made to push forward to other areas.

Another possible departure is that the US is able to seize more of the German atomic scientists and uranium, giving a slight setback to the Soviet Atomic Program. Most of the good technical research and scientists the Soviets nabbed happened to be in the areas of Berlin that would become the western sector (Manfred von Ardenne's private laboratory Forschungslaboratorium für Elektronenphysik in Berlin-Lichterfelde, the Siemens Research Laboratory II in Berlin-Siemensstadt, the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry in Berlin-Dahlem, and the Physical Chemistry Institute at the Technische Hochschule Berlin in Berlin-Charlottenburg). The US and British might take them outright. If not, the Soviets will have zero time to exploit the area before the Yanks and Brits show up to occupy their zones. A lot of the German scientists taken by the Soviets to work on nuclear research (whether on the bomb itself, or one of the ancillary projects) will be in Allied custody.

With the Allies so close, it'd be interesting to see if the Americans make an attempt to take the one German atomic research center that won't be in their sector - the Auergesellschaft plant in Oranienburg which processed uranium. IOTL, on March 15, 1945 the 8th Air Force bombed it specifically to obstruct the Russians from using it.

This won't stop the Soviets from developing a bomb, but it will put a delay in. Maybe one or two years. If Stalin doesn't have a bomb in 1950, does he give the OK to the Korean War?

Most things won't change except that the Czech portion of Czechoslovakia won't be occupied by the Red Army. That means there won't be gangs of local Communists who set themselves up as local police. That maybe means that the Communists aren't as successful taking over all levels of the police when Benes appoints them as Minister of the Interior. He'll still do that however, giving them some leverage. The Czech coup could still very well happen, but there is a chance things are different enough that the anti-Communists are able to prevent it.

What kind of fighting breaks out and what happens to Hitler?
 
What kind of fighting breaks out and what happens to Hitler?

Hitler will fight on to the end and will commit suicide like IOTL. However, I think there will be significant defections/surrenders among the Berlin defenders since it is not the Soviets approaching. Hitler will still have a strong core of support among fanatical troops, but even Himmler thought he could negotiate with Eisenhower. Having the Western Allies so close means there will be a lot of defections/surrender at some point - although perhaps not until the Red Army arrives.

There will be fighting, but I'm uncertain as to what extent. Whether Eisenhower even attempts to take the city alone depends on how unprepared Berlin is when the first American troops reach the Elbe. If it is chaos, Eisenhower will try to take the city by a coup de main like Clark did in Rome. If there is already substantial defenses and Germans are prepared for a fight, I don't think he takes the city until the Red Army arrives and the two sides issue a joint attack.
 
The POD isn't very good. If the Germans give up a whole bunch of territory for free in 1944, then the Soviets simply move-up and smash through the new line. A better POD might be one where the Germans take the bridgehead over the D'niepr north of Kiev more seriously then they did IOTL in 1943. This would deny the Soviets the rapid penetration of the D'niepr river line and drag the Ukrainian battles out over a longer period of time.

In any case, the troops on the approach to Berlin probably won't fight the WAllies very hard, but the troops within Berlin will. These consisted of a enormous large proportion of SS fanatics (and half of those are foreign SS who know they have no home to go because they'll be shot as traitors) and they will be very stringent in making sure their Wehrmacht and Volkssturm counterparts resisted alongside them.

So the WAllies will likely take fewer casualties reaching Berlin then the Soviets did, but probably just as many in taking it.
 
The POD isn't very good. If the Germans give up a whole bunch of territory for free in 1944, then the Soviets simply move-up and smash through the new line.

Man, total USSR wank. Sheer distance alone preempted this OTL. There is only so far the USSR can supply an army without rails, bridges, and etc. You would want them to cover a distance from Belarus to near Warsaw all by truck?

To be honest, the USSR's army would get about just as far without resistance as the German AGC OTL was incapable of mounting a significant defense anyway.

The POD presumes the Germans actually defended in better terrain and pulled back in the face of the great "Soviet deception tactics" you trumpet on other friends. It can only help the Germans on the Eastern Front, your criteria is that they are equally hurt if they are deceived or if they are not. That's irrational.

A better POD might be one where the Germans take the bridgehead over the D'niepr north of Kiev more seriously then they did IOTL in 1943. This would deny the Soviets the rapid penetration of the D'niepr river line and drag the Ukrainian battles out over a longer period of time.

Whatever POD you like, the point is Berlin, though I do like the opportunity to call out Soviet wanking whenever I see it ;)

In any case, the troops on the approach to Berlin probably won't fight the WAllies very hard, but the troops within Berlin will. These consisted of a enormous large proportion of SS fanatics (and half of those are foreign SS who know they have no home to go because they'll be shot as traitors) and they will be very stringent in making sure their Wehrmacht and Volkssturm counterparts resisted alongside them.

So the WAllies will likely take fewer casualties reaching Berlin then the Soviets did, but probably just as many in taking it.

How does it affect the psyche of Western powers if they had experienced city fighting like Berlin?
 
Man, total USSR wank. Sheer distance alone preempted this OTL. There is only so far the USSR can supply an army without rails, bridges, and etc. You would want them to cover a distance from Belarus to near Warsaw all by truck?
Umm.. yes? Since, you know, that was precisely what they achieved IOTL against actual German resistance. And while they will have to bring up their logistics net once they are at the Vistula, the more rapid advance simply means that the alternate Bagration is really the Vistula-Oder offensive occuring in August or September 1944 instead of January 1945.

The POD presumes the Germans actually defended in better terrain
Actually the terrain in Central Poland is even worse then for defenders then it is in Belarus. Belarus is rife with swamps, very thick forests, and extremely rough hills. Central Poland is largely a mix of modest woodland and open plains, much easier going for mechanized forces in comparison. The one potentially formidable natural barrier, the Vistula, is compromised as an effective part of a defense line by the fact it abruptly curves west north of Warsaw and peters out into a smaller and less difficult to cross waterway just a few dozen miles past the town of Otwock.

and pulled back in the face of the great "Soviet deception tactics" you trumpet on other friends.
If you want to deny that the Soviets performed a brilliant deception on a similar scale (and with identical success) to Operation Fortitude... well, you are very much fighting against the established facts there.

It can only help the Germans on the Eastern Front, your criteria is that they are equally hurt if they are deceived or if they are not.
They are more hurt in the sense that they don't have as far too retreat. In terms of military strength, nothing really changes.

How does it affect the psyche of Western powers if they had experienced city fighting like Berlin?
Well, probably the same way places like Aachen did, although on a larger scale.
 
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How does it affect the psyche of Western powers if they had experienced city fighting like Berlin?

I'd assume a lot like what the US in the Pacific felt after Okinawa or like after OTL battles in Huế or Fallujah. In any case you'd probably get a bigger celebration and sense of accomplishment when the city is finally taken.
 
Not the ideal web site for describing Operation Eclipse, but it is handy.

http://perrya.hubpages.com/hub/Oper...p-Assault-to-Seize-Berlin-Before-the-Russians

Assuming the Red Army is stalled far enough to the east Ike would certainly have taken the decision to bring the thing to a end sooner by sending both 12 & 21 AG to Prussia/Silesia vs sending 21 AG south with 6th AG.

Yes there would be fanatics resisting to the bitter end, but the US & other Allied armies in the west found a lot fewer of them than the Red Army did. So, there would be less of a blood bath in Berlin. Had something like Eclipse been executed it is not impossible some senior German commander would have 'turned' rather than continued a last battle. In this we have the example of the German commander surrendering in Italy, rather than attempt the defense of the Austrian Alps with salvaged ground forces.
 
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PatrickS

Banned
POD: Hitler bumps his head, makes him a little sane, and truly what's best for the "German" people.

He realizes that the Russians will be much worst, so he withdraws the German Army from the West leaving the bare minimal, sensing almost everything to the East. This is so the Western Allies will take as much of Germany as possible, and as many civilians and troops can surrender.

ASB?
 
POD: Hitler bumps his head, makes him a little sane, and truly what's best for the "German" people.

He realizes that the Russians will be much worst, so he withdraws the German Army from the West leaving the bare minimal, sensing almost everything to the East. This is so the Western Allies will take as much of Germany as possible, and as many civilians and troops can surrender.

ASB?

Yes... that's pretty much textbook ASB
 
I think it would require a change in the final occupation zones. Eisenhower wasn't going to spend blood to acquire territory that would be turned over to the USSR afterwards. The went to the Elbe and stopped.
 

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
I think it would require a change in the final occupation zones. Eisenhower wasn't going to spend blood to acquire territory that would be turned over to the USSR afterwards. The went to the Elbe and stopped.

If the Russians are still hundreds of miles to the east they will not stop - if nothing else there are thousands of Allied POW's to rescue......
 
The only way I see the Western Allies attacking Berlin themselves is if the Soviets are somehow held up somewhere further east and the WAllies are somehow in a better position to capture the city.
 
Andras said:
I think it would require a change in the final occupation zones. Eisenhower wasn't going to spend blood to acquire territory that would be turned over to the USSR afterwards. The went to the Elbe and stopped.

If the Russians are still hundreds of miles to the east they will not stop - if nothing else there are thousands of Allied POW's to rescue......

There is no way Eisenhower would sit on the Elbe while the war drags out for many more weeks or even months. Neither would Brooke, Churchill, DeGaulle, Truman, Marshall, or anyone else with his ear would ask him to do so. Ending the war as swiftly as possible was Ikes goal and there was no one to tell him otherwise.

If you want motivated soldiers to send on to Berlin put the Polish armored division in front. They still had a agenda.
 
The commander of army group Weichel Henrichi is quoted to have said to the troops at Seelöw heights "You are only to hold the Russians as long as it takes for the American Sherman tanks to come up your rear"

The trouble for the western allies is that they are wastly over streched, atleast according to Cornelius Ryan´s book about the final battle. It would take time to assemble a force to punch through the German defences
 
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