WI US annexed Dominican Republic in 1870

[vuun]

This is something that was seriously considered in 1870. The Dominican Republic voted for US annexation, but the US Senate voted against annexing Santo Domingo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Santo_Domingo

What if this had gone through?

 

[TFSmith121]

The real issue with any of the post-Guadalupe Hidalgo Latin American

ideas about (semi) permanent US annexation or purchase of Latin American territories (absent the Gadsden Purchase and the Canal Zone) are two:

1) Majority Catholic populations;
2) Majority Spanish-speaking populations;

Both are going to engender significant domestic (US) opposition in Congress in the Nineteenth Century.

Best,

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Buenaventura Baez would be coup'd. Again. Probably killed by an angry mob.

And the new Dominican Government would tell the US to fuck off. If the US invades, trying to assert its authority, you get years of guerrilla warfare not unlike that of the US occupation of the Philippines until the Senate throws its hands in the air and the US gives up.

Or the fighting continues, and you get the Dominican Genocide.

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Buenaventura Baez would be coup'd. Again. Probably killed by an angry mob.

And the new Dominican Government would tell the US to fuck off. If the US invades, trying to assert its authority, you get years of guerrilla warfare not unlike that of the US occupation of the Philippines until the Senate throws its hands in the air and the US gives up.

Or the fighting continues, and you get the Dominican Genocide.

I think you're overestimating the Dominican resistance. There would probably be some resistance to US rule, but you have to remember that the Dominican Republic was about as populous as Delaware at the time (less than 300,000 people in 1870).

If the US did annex the Dominican Republic, the big issue would be how to deal with the inevitable Haitian immigrants over the next 100 years. From what I've been told by Dominicans living in the US, it's already a problem there in OTL. Imagine what would happen if Haiti shared a border with a First World country.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

I think you're overestimating the Dominican resistance. There would probably be some resistance to US rule, but you have to remember that the Dominican Republic was about as populous as Delaware at the time (less than 300,000 people in 1870).

If the US did buy the Dominican Republic, the big issue would be how to deal with the inevitable Haitian immigrants over the next 100 years. From what I've been told by Dominicans living in the US, it's already a problem there in OTL. Imagine what would happen if Haiti shared a border with a First World country.

The thing is, the Dominican Republic has a history of fighting forces that are far larger than its own and has extensive experience in asymmetrical warfare.

As well, the US army was rather small at this time.

Its not a good combination.

Also, I don't see the eastern 2/3s of Hispaniola being swamped with Anglos or the like quick enough. Its (at the time) a poor, disease ridden tropical backwater with an incredibly stubborn population. There's little infrastructure, and the economy is largely plantation farming.

Combined with all that fighting from the population, it seems like too much work for too little gain.

To your second point. Haiti in the 1870s-80s was undergoing a 'hope spot' where things could have gotten much better and, with the right POD, could have avoided much of the pitfalls of the 1900s. The country, if all goes well, might even be up to First World standards.

And yeah, the immigration problem is really bad. Although my view is likely biased to the Dominican POV.

 

[Urcea]

I think former slaves would probably eventually come to rival the native population within a few years, to be honest, quelling any discussion about whether or not the US can actually hold the territory.

 

[free115]

This should get interesting when the Civil War hits...

 

[Lateknight]

This should get interesting when the Civil War hits...

The civil war was over 5 years with the POD the OP used.

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

The thing is, the Dominican Republic has a history of fighting forces that are far larger than its own and has extensive experience in asymmetrical warfare.

As well, the US army was rather small at this time.

Its not a good combination.

Also, I don't see the eastern 2/3s of Hispaniola being swamped with Anglos or the like quick enough. Its (at the time) a poor, disease ridden tropical backwater with an incredibly stubborn population. There's little infrastructure, and the economy is largely plantation farming.

Combined with all that fighting from the population, it seems like too much work for too little gain.

To your second point. Haiti in the 1870s-80s was undergoing a 'hope spot' where things could have gotten much better and, with the right POD, could have avoided much of the pitfalls of the 1900s. The country, if all goes well, might even be up to First World standards.

And yeah, the immigration problem is really bad. Although my view is likely biased to the Dominican POV.

Of course, the people would fight against the US invasion, but how much of the population would be willing to die to get the Anglos off of their island? The standing US Army was ridiculously small at the time (I think it had like 30,000 soldiers), but it would be operating in a very small area with a low population.

Also, the US proved it was willing to throw tons of soldiers away to occupy colonial territory, even when there were better options. More than 100,000 US soldiers were sent to the Philippines IOTL, even though the US could have gotten the same strategic position in the Pacific by just taking Luzon instead of the whole territory.

If that same force was sent to the Dominican Republic, it's hard to see how an occupation would fail. I'm sure that the Dominicans would be extremely resistant to US annexation, but the same could be said for the people of Puerto Rico IOTL, and look how that turned out.

Edit: And just to give a clearer picture of what 100,000 US troops occupying the Dominican Republic would be like, it's the same thing (proportionally) as occupying Belgium with 3 million soldiers, or the Philippines with 30 million.

 

[Mr.brightside]

Of course, the people would fight against the US invasion, but how much of the population would be willing to die to get the Anglos off of their island? The standing US Army was ridiculously small at the time (I think it had like 30,000 soldiers), but it would be operating in a very small area with a low population.

Also, the US proved it was willing to throw tons of soldiers away to occupy colonial territory, even when there were better options. More than 100,000 US soldiers were sent to the Philippines IOTL, even though the US could have gotten the same strategic position in the Pacific by just taking Luzon instead of the whole territory.

If that same force was sent to the Dominican Republic, it's hard to see how an occupation would fail. I'm sure that the Dominicans would be extremely resistant to US annexation, but the same could be said for the people of Puerto Rico IOTL, and look how that turned out.

Edit: And just to give a clearer picture of what 100,000 US troops occupying the Dominican Republic would be like, it's the same thing (proportionally) as occupying Belgium with 3 million soldiers, or the Philippines with 30 million.

Would America be able to send and supply such a force in 1870? The Philippines American war was thirty years after the POD. Though I agree that eventually the Dominican Republic would be integrated. Whether it becomes a state, gain independence, and ends up like Puerto Rico I don't know.

 

[Georgepatton]

Would America be able to send and supply such a force in 1870? The Philippines American war was thirty years after the POD. Though I agree that eventually the Dominican Republic would be integrated. Whether it becomes a state, gain independence, and ends up like Puerto Rico I don't know.

The United States had recruited, armed, and supplied an army of a million men just five years before.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Of course, the people would fight against the US invasion, but how much of the population would be willing to die to get the Anglos off of their island? The standing US Army was ridiculously small at the time (I think it had like 30,000 soldiers), but it would be operating in a very small area with a low population.

Also, the US proved it was willing to throw tons of soldiers away to occupy colonial territory, even when there were better options. More than 100,000 US soldiers were sent to the Philippines IOTL, even though the US could have gotten the same strategic position in the Pacific by just taking Luzon instead of the whole territory.

If that same force was sent to the Dominican Republic, it's hard to see how an occupation would fail. I'm sure that the Dominicans would be extremely resistant to US annexation, but the same could be said for the people of Puerto Rico IOTL, and look how that turned out.

Edit: And just to give a clearer picture of what 100,000 US troops occupying the Dominican Republic would be like, it's the same thing (proportionally) as occupying Belgium with 3 million soldiers, or the Philippines with 30 million.

In a word: Yes.

The Dominican Republic has fought off the Haitians (whose population at the time of their occupation was over 8 times their time) until they finally got independence.

And then the Spanish until they gave up in the 1860s.

Not to mention the numerous civil wars and coups that have occurred in the decades since the country's independence in 1844.

This is a very battle hardened population. They will be willing to bleed the US dry, even if it costs them up to an insane amount of population loss.

As well, has the US developed that attitude to send thousands upon thousands of men just to pacify colonial territories? Not to mention, even after the population is initially pacified, there's likely to be reoccurring revolts and the island will be an economic sinkhole should the US try to build up infrastructure and develop the place... (there's also the fact that due to geography, the US will have swaths of the island not under their control for decades at the minimum)

It just doesn't seem worth the effort.

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Would America be able to send and supply such a force in 1870? The Philippines American war was thirty years after the POD. Though I agree that eventually the Dominican Republic would be integrated. Whether it becomes a state, gain independence, and ends up like Puerto Rico I don't know.

I know this sounds strange, but I don't think logistics would be a huge issue. The Dominican Republic is very close to the US, even by the standards of the late 19th century. Sending and supplying troops wouldn't be a major problem, unless something crazy happens (Spanish intervention?).

 

[Blackfox5]

I think any problems with annexation would be doable. A small military force is all that is needed. The US will augment its forces with local paramilitary constabulary and militia who are willing to collaborate for a steady paycheck.

As long as most of the Dominican elite see benefits in cooperating with the US, things will stabilize quickly. US assurances of protecting their property and involvement in the governance of the island will likely win the allegiance of most of the elite. Large chance of significant US investment in agricultural plantations (especially sugar), cattle, fishing, and mining will boost local incomes. Then there will be the benefits of hosting a large US naval base and probably an (much smaller) army base somewhere.

I'm sure there will be some die hard Dominican nationalists agitating for rebellion, but assuming the Dominicans see themselves mostly free of Washington (other than an appointed governor) and seeing large economic benefits, I think such nationalism will not boil over to prolonged armed conflict anymore than it did with Puerto Rico.

A scenario like the Philippine-American War is possible, but I think there is a much greater chance of obtaining elite consent to American possession then there was in the Philippines which should reduce the scale of any war and reduce casualties than what happened in the Philippines.

As for Haiti, once Dominica becomes part of the US, American policy towards Haiti will become more supportive simply to prevent an exodus of Haitian blacks to US territory. IOTL, the US occupied and governed Haiti from 1915-1934. We might see a far earlier occupation and active US involvement in Haitian affairs simply to make sure things are handled well enough that Haiti never falls into the pit of despair it did IOTL. US involvement in Haiti will not be universally beneficial, but it won't be as neglecting as American policy was IOTL.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

I think any problems with annexation would be doable. A small military force is all that is needed. The US will augment its forces with local paramilitary constabulary and militia who are willing to collaborate for a steady paycheck.

As long as most of the Dominican elite see benefits in cooperating with the US, things will stabilize quickly. US assurances of protecting their property and involvement in the governance of the island will likely win the allegiance of most of the elite. Large chance of significant US investment in agricultural plantations (especially sugar), cattle, fishing, and mining will boost local incomes. Then there will be the benefits of hosting a large US naval base and probably an (much smaller) army base somewhere.

I'm sure there will be some die hard Dominican nationalists agitating for rebellion, but assuming the Dominicans see themselves mostly free of Washington (other than an appointed governor) and seeing large economic benefits, I think such nationalism will not boil over to prolonged armed conflict anymore than it did with Puerto Rico.

A scenario like the Philippine-American War is possible, but I think there is a much greater chance of obtaining elite consent to American possession then there was in the Philippines which should reduce the scale of any war and reduce casualties than what happened in the Philippines.

As for Haiti, once Dominica becomes part of the US, American policy towards Haiti will become more supportive simply to prevent an exodus of Haitian blacks to US territory. IOTL, the US occupied and governed Haiti from 1915-1934. We might see a far earlier occupation and active US involvement in Haitian affairs simply to make sure things are handled well enough that Haiti never falls into the pit of despair it did IOTL. US involvement in Haiti will not be universally beneficial, but it won't be as neglecting as American policy was IOTL.

The thing is, Spain tried all of the above and it failed horribly. The Dominican elite did not like being told what to do, (or the knowledge that they weren't in charge, for that matter) and this is way too close to Restoration War for the people to forget about being ruled by a foreign overlord. The US wont win over the hearts of the people and elites so easily.

Second, those economic benefits will take time to kick in. A very long time until the average Dominican sees the benefit of US rule. Until then, the people will scoff at the new goverment and revolt.

Also tiny nitpick: Its not going to be called Dominica. It'd more likely be called Santo Domingo. Dominica was the name of a British colony.

 

[Essam]

Would be interested to see it paired with a Canadian Haiti, or even Canadian West Indies and Haiti.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

Would be interested to see it paired with a Canadian Haiti, or even Canadian West Indies and Haiti.

Certainly easy to do, more so than America eating the Dominican Republic. After all, with moose calvary and maple syrup cannons the Canadians are a cut above the demobilised American military.

 

[Will Kürlich Kerl]

Would be interested to see it paired with a Canadian Haiti, or even Canadian West Indies and Haiti.

I don't think that is very likely. Canada didn't randomly get Jamaica and St. Kitts and Nevis OTL, and for about half of its lifetime, it didn't even get Newfoundland, which is much closer to mainland Canada then the West Indies.

 

[General Mosh]

Buenaventura Baez would be coup'd. Again. Probably killed by an angry mob.

And the new Dominican Government would tell the US to fuck off. If the US invades, trying to assert its authority, you get years of guerrilla warfare not unlike that of the US occupation of the Philippines until the Senate throws its hands in the air and the US gives up.

Or the fighting continues, and you get the Dominican Genocide.

The US occupied the Dominican Republic for 8 years IOTL, neither of those two things happened.

This should get interesting when the Civil War hits...

The Civil War is already over, but the Spanish-American War is only two decades away. It could convince the Americans to stay in Cuba for longer.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

The US occupied the Dominican Republic for 8 years IOTL, neither of those two things happened.

The Civil War is already over, but the Spanish-American War is only two decades away. It could convince the Americans to stay in Cuba for longer.

In 1916. When the US was farstronger and the Dominican Republic was effectively a failed state that had just gone through an extended period of crisis and instability.