WI: Union victory of Bull Run

[A.M. Turtle]

Let's say that the Union Army of the Potomac defeats the Confederate Army of the Potomac at the Battle of Bull Run for whatever reason.
-Can the Union Army of the Potomac capture Richmond?
-If so will this end the American Civil War in a matter of weeks, have it be similar to ours only the Battle of Bull Run known as a Union victory or lengthen it?

 

[Art]

yes

Bull Run/Mannasas Junction was, as Arthur Wellesley, the Duke of Wellington said of Waterloo "It was a near run thing, as near run as anything I ever saw." I know, for example, you had many Union regiments in grey, and many Confederate ones in grey. I think a critical battery was captured by the Confees because of that. Also, Abraham Lincoln made a interesting comment about both armies. He said "it is true you are green, but they are also, you are all green together." And the U. S. could retreat to the fortifications of Washington, whereas the C. S. A. army had nowhere to defend a solid position for 30 miles or so.

 

[mowque]

How crushing is the victory?

 

[A.M. Turtle]

How crushing is the victory?

I was thinking similar losses to OTL Bull Run with an increase in Confederate losses.

 

[usertron2020]

I was thinking similar losses to OTL Bull Run with an increase in Confederate losses.

Good point. Except for the Battle of Nashville (1865!) no army on either side was ever destroyed in combat on the field of battle (surrounded by siege and surrendered, yes). Defense was just too strong in that war.

 

[usertron2020]

Even in victory, how much can McDowell accomplish with so many incompetent politicians as subordinate officers? Beauregaurd at least had a healthy field of professional officers to call upon. I'm assuming ITTL Patterson fell off his horse (fatally) and by chance a far more capable officer (who?) took his place, insuring a timely arrival of the Shenandoah Army.

 

[usertron2020]

Wilderness or Fredericksburg?

Even in victory, how much can McDowell accomplish with so many incompetent politicians as subordinate officers? Beauregaurd at least had a healthy field of professional officers to call upon. I'm assuming ITTL Patterson fell off his horse (fatally) and by chance a far more capable officer (who?) took his place, insuring a timely arrival of the Shenandoah Army.

Where McDowell goes next depends on the damage done to the Confed Army. If it is as serious as suggested, the Army of the Potomac may be able to manuever thru Fredericksburg, the shorter route. Though technically a stronger defense can be made there, it won't be Lee and Longstreet making that defense. Also, it won't be Burnside (in my opinion the worst general the Grand Old Army of the Potomac was ever stricken with) attacking. I think it can be taken for granted that if McDowell is foolish enough to go thru the Wilderness, where his artillery is negated, and southern soldiers make the better woodsmen, things will quickly revert to OTL.

 

[usertron2020]

The Shortest Distance Between Two Points!

Where McDowell goes next depends on the damage done to the Confed Army. If it is as serious as suggested, the Army of the Potomac may be able to manuever thru Fredericksburg, the shorter route. Though technically a stronger defense can be made there, it won't be Lee and Longstreet making that defense. Also, it won't be Burnside (in my opinion the worst general the Grand Old Army of the Potomac was ever stricken with) attacking. I think it can be taken for granted that if McDowell is foolish enough to go thru the Wilderness, where his artillery is negated, and southern soldiers make the better woodsmen, things will quickly revert to OTL.

Looking at a topographical map of Virginia, it shows that both a Shenandoah or Naval approach take too much time and distance and also leaves Washington uncovered. It's got to be Fredericksburg, unless anyone else has an opinion?

 

[usertron2020]

I've never dun nuthin wrong, but I always get Blamed! Framed!

Looking at a topographical map of Virginia, it shows that both a Shenandoah or Naval approach take too much time and distance and also leaves Washington uncovered. It's got to be Fredericksburg, unless anyone else has an opinion?

I always thought McDowell had been made the goat for Patterson's extreme caution. Mind, I know that McDowell is, at best, merely competent. But his being saddled with the blame is like as if Wellington had lost at Waterloo and was given the blame as the man in charge of the battle even if he lost because Blucher never showed!

 

[usertron2020]

Charge or Manuever?

Does anyone have an opinion about what would be the outcome of an 1861 Fredricksburgs following a Union victory at First (only?) Bull Run? The troops are waiting!

 

[GreatScottMarty]

Does anyone have an opinion about what would be the outcome of an 1861 Fredricksburgs following a Union victory at First (only?) Bull Run? The troops are waiting!

I always thought McDowell was incompetent so a Union victory at Bull Run was out of the question for me. I think Beauregard can hold the line at the Fredericksburg temporarily but I think McDowell encircles and wins the siege.

 

[robertp6165]

Where McDowell goes next depends on the damage done to the Confed Army. If it is as serious as suggested, the Army of the Potomac may be able to manuever thru Fredericksburg, the shorter route. Though technically a stronger defense can be made there, it won't be Lee and Longstreet making that defense. Also, it won't be Burnside (in my opinion the worst general the Grand Old Army of the Potomac was ever stricken with) attacking. I think it can be taken for granted that if McDowell is foolish enough to go thru the Wilderness, where his artillery is negated, and southern soldiers make the better woodsmen, things will quickly revert to OTL.

Looking at a topographical map of Virginia, it shows that both a Shenandoah or Naval approach take too much time and distance and also leaves Washington uncovered. It's got to be Fredericksburg, unless anyone else has an opinion?

Does anyone have an opinion about what would be the outcome of an 1861 Fredricksburgs following a Union victory at First (only?) Bull Run? The troops are waiting!

This all assumes, of course, that McDowell goes to Richmond at all. McDowell was, in OTL, so anxious about the training of his soldiers that he really didn't plan beyond making an attack on the Confederates at Manassas Junction. A lot of his soldiers were 90 day volunteers whose enlistments would be up between the fight at Manassas and the end of July. So a significant portion of his army was going to melt away within less than 2 weeks after the Battle of Manassas. So he might well just entrench the army at Manassas and wait for reinforcements to replace the 90 day volunteers. By the time he moves on Richmond, the Confederates will have had time to reorganize their forces and replenish their depleted ranks, and be ready to meet him.

Assuming McDowell decides to move on Richmond in the immediate aftermath of a successful Battle of Manassas (possibly as a result of political pressure), it is very unlikely that there would be a battle fought at Fredericksburg. McDowell, who was very concerned about the lack of training of his troops, would have wanted to avoid having to cross the Rappahannock River at Fredericksburg, where it's too deep to be forded and pontoon bridges would be required. It is more likely that he goes to Richmond via the Wilderness. Or, if he wishes to avoid that region, he can go west of it, following the line of the Orange and Alexandria Railroad to Culpepper Courthouse, and crossing the Rapidan at Orange Court House. It might be a longer march, but with the Confederates defeated at Manassas, McDowell might be willing to take his time in getting to Richmond.

 

[Derek Jackson]

Does the Confederacy collapse if Richmond fell by the end of August 1861??

 

[robertp6165]

Does the Confederacy collapse if Richmond fell by the end of August 1861??

That depends on how severe the blow to the army which resulted in said capture actually was, and whether the Confederate government manages to escape the capture.

If the Confederate government and army escape relatively intact, they they likely move by train back to a more defensible location and set up a new capital, much like the Continental Congress did when Phildelphia fell in 1777. The loss of Richmond, and particularly Tredegar Iron Works, would be a major blow, but not necessarily fatal. Confederate resistance could go on for a while.

But if the Confederate army defending Richmond is destroyed and/or the government captured, I think the morale blow will be so large that the secessionist states will sue for peace in short order.

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

Does the Confederacy collapse if Richmond fell by the end of August 1861??

Probably ...

Although on Paper, The Confederacy would Now Ostensibly be Returned to Roughly The Boundaries it Enjoyed, during The Montgomery Convention; With Virginia Now Lost, Expect North Carolina and Tennessee, Including Perhaps Arkansas, to Make whatever Deal they can with The Federal Government!

This will Result in a HUGE Loss of Depth, and When The End Comes it would be Quite Swift ...

However, I Doubt it will Actually Come to that; The Writing will be on The Wall, and Even Confederate Hard-Liners will Have to Admit it!

 

[Nytram01]

In my opinion it all depends on how the vistory was won, not so much on how crushing it was.

It the POD is that Genral McDowell is somehow able to defeat the combined Armies of the Potomac (CS) and Shenandoah (CS) on his own then his victory is certain to be as incomplete as the Confederate one in OTL.

If Genreal McDowell defeats General Beauregard's Army of the Potomac (CS) without General Joe Johnston's Army of the Shenandoah (CS) being present due to it being kept busy with General Patterson's Army in the Valley then chances for a more decisive victory are increased and the way to Richmond rendered more open but even so the AotP (CS) will not be destroyed.

If General McDowell's Army of Northeastern Virginia joined up with General Patterson Army of the Shenandoah (US) and managed to defeat the AotP (CS) and AoS (CS) then again it will not be a crushing victory but a decisive one, the Confederates will not be destroyed here either.

If General Patterson moves his AoS (US) towards Bull Run before General Johnston moves his AoS (CS) and links up with the AoNEV before Johnston can reach the field then you have a chance for a crushing decisive victory for the Union but Johnston's 10,000 odd man army will still be untouched and in a cohesive force and will be able to rally the beaten parts of Beauregard's Army to a defensive postion before Richmond.

I dont think any scenario will really see the fall of Richmond in 1861. I dont think either that any scenario will see the fall of the Confederacy that early either.

 

[usertron2020]

Please read this

In my opinion it all depends on how the vistory was won, not so much on how crushing it was.

It the POD is that Genral McDowell is somehow able to defeat the combined Armies of the Potomac (CS) and Shenandoah (CS) on his own then his victory is certain to be as incomplete as the Confederate one in OTL.

If Genreal McDowell defeats General Beauregard's Army of the Potomac (CS) without General Joe Johnston's Army of the Shenandoah (CS) being present due to it being kept busy with General Patterson's Army in the Valley then chances for a more decisive victory are increased and the way to Richmond rendered more open but even so the AotP (CS) will not be destroyed.

If General McDowell's Army of Northeastern Virginia joined up with General Patterson Army of the Shenandoah (US) and managed to defeat the AotP (CS) and AoS (CS) then again it will not be a crushing victory but a decisive one, the Confederates will not be destroyed here either.

If General Patterson moves his AoS (US) towards Bull Run before General Johnston moves his AoS (CS) and links up with the AoNEV before Johnston can reach the field then you have a chance for a crushing decisive victory for the Union but Johnston's 10,000 odd man army will still be untouched and in a cohesive force and will be able to rally the beaten parts of Beauregard's Army to a defensive postion before Richmond.

I dont think any scenario will really see the fall of Richmond in 1861. I dont think either that any scenario will see the fall of the Confederacy that early either.

A very well-written, turgid analysis. Which probably explains why if you're going to have a UnionistWank, it's best to keep it in the ASB sphere. You just don't see the erudition reflected in arguing for a more successful Union war effort. When Unionist TL's are offered, the quality of argument against such TL's give you the impression that half the faculty of the VMI are lining up to tear down any suggestion that the North could have ended the war so much as one day sooner! OK, I think that's what's called a flamebait, if I'm not mistaken. Obviously things are not THAT bad. But when a Confed TL is done, there's no getting around the following facts: 1) Said "VMI professors" are now arguing in DEFENSE of such a TL. 2) Anyone attacking the TL, no matter how gently, will be carved up like a Christmas roast. 3) It will be obvious to one and all that the "Southern" writers will have a depth of education and writing skill that the "Northerners" can't match.

I have my suspicions about this, and NO it's not about racism, lies, or even simple factual errors. It's about MONEY. If you are a professor of history, and you want to write a novel, or even just a short story about alternate history, then you know where the money is, and you go where the money is. It's in fiction about a victorious South. There are very few (and poorly written) works of fiction involving ATL's of a Union that is victorious at an earlier date than OTL, even if it's only by a few months. But the Confederacy? If you took every story ever written in this genre you could probably fill a good sized local library.

What is the attraction? It's not racism! Though I'll admit some of the most extreme ConfedWanks imply that. I don't believe anyone on this forum other than the absolutely out-there lunatic fringe support the idea of contemporary slavery. It's not lies or errors. The better Confed stories are too well-researched and written (Thanks professors). The attraction is, there is a market for it out there! People (Southerners) are buying these books in (For fantasy fiction) large numbers. That is one good reason at least for the number and quality of Confed stories (And Wanks).

The UnionistWanks? I'm of the opinion that Harrison's trilogy was about being Anti-British, not Anti-Confederate (Forgive me for pointing out the obvious). I can imagine those books perhaps selling better in Ireland than the USA (per capita). The closest thing I've ever found to a UnionistWank is Peter G. Tsouras' 1997 "Gettysburg, An Alternate History". But if you read carefully up until the very end the battle actions are the same old same old: Confederates attack, Yankees run. Over and over again. Only at the very end do things turn around. The Army of Northern Virginia is completely overextended, with Longstreet's and Hill's Corps wrapped up and fully engaged with most of what's left of the Army of the Potomac. Why is this? Because Robert E. Lee has had a heart attack and cannot command the battle! So Longstreet, a villain in Neo-Confederate eyes (He became a "Black" Republican in Reconstruction), is left in command so HE can lose the battle without upsetting anybody. So, under HIS battleplan, the army is setup for failure. When the last Union reserve, the Sixth Corps, arrives in Longstreet's/Hill's rear, it's all over. What happens next? The Epilogue! No fighting, no battles, nothing. The moment Longstreet sees the Union Sixth Corps, the chapter ends. Tsouras knew what he was doing. He knew his readers wanted to read all about Southerners kicking Yankee ass, which they DID, very well and in the most exquisite detail. But a description of 2/3 of the infantry of the invincible Army of Northern Virginia being rolled up like a carpet? Nope, sorry. Not unless Tsouras wanted his book to go straight to the bookstore bargain bin. It was just good business.

Sorry for going on and on, but I wrote this primarily as a recommendation to Pro-Unionists/Pro-Lincolnists to stay out of threads like these and stick to the ASB format. I've noticed that the Pro-Confeds are not insulted if the South is losing earlier to a malevolent force of Alien Space Bats. Maybe this will help avoid some of the more contentious remarks that have been popping up in this forum. And for the record, I do not excuse myself from this. I have myself "lost it" from time to time, and there is no excuse for that.

You want an example outside the US Civil War? The Conrad Stargard series, about a modern day Polish engineer who winds up in 1232 AD Poland. Five books later he's broken the Western Mongol Empire and effectively rules half of Eastern Europe! The only public library in the US to carry all 5 books? Chicago! Uh, that's Polish-American Central, if anybody doesn't know. Go where the Market is....