This would require Maudling to win the Tory leadership over Heath in 1965, or perhaps Butler over Macmillan in 1957. Would the UK still be US/Commonwealth oriented, or was the joining inevitable? Perhaps FTA with the Community instead? Would Thatcher become PM?
WI UK doesn't join the EEC?
- Thread starter RogueBeaver
- Start date
In my High Wire Eire TL, the UK hasn't joined due to a highly Eurosceptic Tory PM. To paraphrase Bush I: "I am the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and I do not have to eat Brussels sprouts." 
Neroon
Banned
An EEC federalizing (too) faster, might actually lead to a smaller EU. If it's a "United States of Europe" dominated by the French and the Germans in all but name by say 1990, then there's no chance in hell Poland will join. Rest of Eastern Europe and Scandinavia is also extremely unlikely.
We'd probbably see an almost-united EU and a counter-free-trade-block compromising the UK, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. The latter having a NAFTA-style agreement but no intergration whatsoever.
Eurofed
Banned
Wholly agreed about the rest, but I see most of Eastern Europe going with the EU and not the EFTA. The federal EU would not be a show wholly run by Germany, they would have to share leadership with France, Italy, and, to a lesser degree, Spain. With its economic and demographic weight, Poland could and would easily play the Latin biggies against the Germans or the Italo-Spanish against the Franco-Germans, and leverage itself at the same level of influence as Spain. Moreover, the EU/EF would have much more to offer Eastern Europe, both as it concerns abundant subsidies to develop their economies, a strong integrated army to protect them from Russian revanchist comebacks, and political integration to buttress their democracies. The Baltics might well follow Scandinavia in the EFTA (but the appeal of economic subsidies and military protection could still bring them in the EU all the same), Czechia could go in the EFTA out of sheer Euroskepticism, but Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Croatia are totally going in the EU. Poland has substantial Euroskeptic leanings, but not so strong as Britain or Czechia, and it has very strong motivation to seek robust protection from Russian resurgence and the weight to make itself a significant force in the EU. So in the end I see them more likely to go in the EU.
Therefore:
Federal EU: France, Germany, Italy, Benelux, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania (including Moldavia), Bulgaria, Greece, Malta, Cyprus.
EFTA: Britain, Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Greenland, the Baltics, Czechia, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine.
Edge
Banned
Even today's EU is seen in much of Eastern Europe as too heavily influenced by Germans.
With more German influence and without UK to see as counterweight I don't see them joining, especially considering how hard it was in OTL to gain support and problems concerning German property claims that accompanied the expansion, and the pro-Russian German stance that alienates much of Eastern Europe EU members to Germany.
Also with Franco-German axis being more dominant I believe USA would try to invest more into potential allies and try to form a counterblock.
Hence:
European Federation-France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Croatia. State-like federation with socialist bent aligned to Russia under political influence of Germany and France. Centralised and beaurocratic, with reliance on African and Arabic migrants as cheap labour.
European Commonwealth of Nations-UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia.
An free trade and defence pact closely aligned to USA with free movement but seperate internal and foreign policies for each member, however largely liberal in terms of economic philosophy. Largely restrictive to unregulated immigration.
Contested-Spain which probably would be fought over by both sides with support of USA just as Netherlands.
I suspected that with time, ineffective and chest thumping political decisions of EuFed's in the area of economy and immigration would put it at economic disadvantage compared to ECN's(which would be supported by USA). Allliance with Russia in economy as means to help its economy would further alienate it with rest of Europe(especially with Eastern Europeans). Finally the EuFed's incompetence could possibly seek to divert population from race riots and economic misery by military adventurism in Africa or Balkans and at odds with sovereign nations of Europe. A confrontation which would most likely be lost due to erosion of internal stability and trust between member countries and resulting into final dissolution of the Federation. By that time both USA and Asia will dominate the world, and Europe will remain a sideshow, which is quite ok for continent with such a history.
With more German influence and without UK to see as counterweight I don't see them joining, especially considering how hard it was in OTL to gain support and problems concerning German property claims that accompanied the expansion, and the pro-Russian German stance that alienates much of Eastern Europe EU members to Germany.
Also with Franco-German axis being more dominant I believe USA would try to invest more into potential allies and try to form a counterblock.
Hence:
European Federation-France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Croatia. State-like federation with socialist bent aligned to Russia under political influence of Germany and France. Centralised and beaurocratic, with reliance on African and Arabic migrants as cheap labour.
European Commonwealth of Nations-UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia.
An free trade and defence pact closely aligned to USA with free movement but seperate internal and foreign policies for each member, however largely liberal in terms of economic philosophy. Largely restrictive to unregulated immigration.
Contested-Spain which probably would be fought over by both sides with support of USA just as Netherlands.
I suspected that with time, ineffective and chest thumping political decisions of EuFed's in the area of economy and immigration would put it at economic disadvantage compared to ECN's(which would be supported by USA). Allliance with Russia in economy as means to help its economy would further alienate it with rest of Europe(especially with Eastern Europeans). Finally the EuFed's incompetence could possibly seek to divert population from race riots and economic misery by military adventurism in Africa or Balkans and at odds with sovereign nations of Europe. A confrontation which would most likely be lost due to erosion of internal stability and trust between member countries and resulting into final dissolution of the Federation. By that time both USA and Asia will dominate the world, and Europe will remain a sideshow, which is quite ok for continent with such a history.
That's very strange assumption, Germany is seen in Eastern Europe as friendly to Russia, and certainly was viewed so during expansion. Nobody actually counted on Germany to resist Russian demands towards Eastern Europe during accession. Neither Germany has ever strongly opposed Russia's claims of influence in that region.
Except Poland connects Russian resurgance with German green light to with, and would seek protection in USA first in that regard, later UK and Nato, not in EU.
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Eurofed
Banned
German property claims are a trivial problem, since the German leadership and the overwhelming majority of the German public are utterly uninterested about them. However, I concede that the pro-Russian attitude of France, Germany, and Italy (since Paris and Rome are not really different from Berlin about this) may be a problem.
Only reason for the USA to do this is if they are having a phase much like the Iraq War and want to organize a more loyal bloc in Europe to support their adventures elsewhere, or have a definite falling out with Russia and face a relapse into Cold War. Otherwise, it makes little sense, for them the EF bloc is just as good a strategic partner.
The idea that the EF is going to be really lenient on African and Arabic immigration is politically ASB and shows utter ignorance of the strongly negative feelings in the last few decades about such unregulated immigration in countries like France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. Also, where goes Croatia so goes Slovenia and vice-versa. Moreover, the lack of Spain, Portugal, Luxemburg, Netherlands in the EF is even more politically and economically ASB. Spain and Netherlands have been amongst the most steadfast supporters of European integration and are tightly linked with the economies of France, Germany, and Italy. Greece is almost surely a member of the EF, too. Malta, Cyprus, Romania, and Bulgaria are other very likely members.
It is much, much, much more realistic to switch the attitudes of the two blocs about immigration, if any, or say that they have more or less the same restrictive attitude. Also, the ECN is going to include Ireland, because of Ulster.
Utterly ASB in both cases. Political and economic links, as well as attitude towards European integration, make both countries sure members of the EF, as well as Portugal and Luxemburg.
Hmm, maybe if you could stop worshipping your Reagan-Thatcher shine just enough to notice how in the light of recent events hyper-liberal economic systems demonstrably do not fare so good in the long term. The EF and the ECN fare pretty much the same economically, if any, in the long term, or the EF is going to get a significant but not radical edge from economic integration. Germany and France are far, far from being the economic underdog in comparison to Britain, nowadays. The idea that they, or the EU, are "incompetent" only exists in the minds of right-wing Europhobes. Moreover, the idea that the EF is going to be more lenient and more militaristic than the UK-led bloc is utterly ASB and ignorant of real politics. Go to check which nations enthusiastically joined GWB's lamebrained Iraq adventure and which opposed it, please, before spouting typical tabloid nonsense about a continental Europe frozen in 1940. Moreover, the USA are surely NOT going to pick a side between the EF and the ECN, in the long term, although they swing to favor either bloc a bit more under different Administration. Doing so would wreck NATO and the Western bloc, they equally need EF and ECN as allies.
The Euroskeptic ASB dream-fantasy keeps unrolling. Be sure to wake up before the point where India petitions to rejoin the reborn British Empire.
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Edge
Banned
Oh how wrong your are. When the EU really integrates, then nationalism will really be reborn, with each nation accusiong other of exploiting the union-just as it happened with every other empire created against the will of the peoples within it.
Europe is destined for rebirth of nationalism, rivalry, and eventual collapse of EU.
The irony is that it will happend due to EU itself, and its attampts of forcefull integration. If it would remain a loose economic block this wouldn't happen.
As somebody said-
Eurofed
Banned
The fanciful idea that EU integration is being managed by cohercion against the will of the peoples within it, and is fated to unleash an irresistible nationalist backlash, only gets substance in the minds of Europhobe tinfoil-hat loonies, that in their tabloid-frenzied fantasies are still fighting the Napoleon/Hitler/Stalin/Mussolini unholy alliance. Utterly nowhere outside of Britain, there is anything like a majority or plurality consensus for hardcore Euroskepticism.
Eurofed
Banned
This is a map which shows the IMO most likely division of Europe.
Blue indicates the European Federation. The "EU" bloc, only with quasi-federal political, economic, fiscal, and military integration.
Green is the European Commonwealth of Nations. A free-trade community with a military alliance.
Brown is the Euro-Asian Union. Russia and its various satellites, in a tight confederation.
Violet is the states that may end either in the EF or the ECN depending on political butterflies.
Yellow is the states that may end up in all three blocs, depending on political and military butterflies (such as the outcome of the Yugoslav wars, the Russian-Georgian Wars, etc).
Blue indicates the European Federation. The "EU" bloc, only with quasi-federal political, economic, fiscal, and military integration.
Green is the European Commonwealth of Nations. A free-trade community with a military alliance.
Brown is the Euro-Asian Union. Russia and its various satellites, in a tight confederation.
Violet is the states that may end either in the EF or the ECN depending on political butterflies.
Yellow is the states that may end up in all three blocs, depending on political and military butterflies (such as the outcome of the Yugoslav wars, the Russian-Georgian Wars, etc).