WI: U.S. POW's are proven to be in the Soviet Union

[Forcon]

During and after the Vietnam War there were persistent rumors that American Prisoners of War were both left behind in Vietnam and Laos, or shipped to the Soviet Union for interrogation by Soviet military intelligence. These prisoners would presumably have been aircrew of certain types of aircraft, communications specialists, electronic warfare personnel and others in similar specialties. IIRC, out of six F-111s shot down in combat over Vietnam, only one F-111 crew ever returned home (I could be wrong about this, but I've definitely heard a rumor along those lines).

Obviously these are just rumors, and I'm not really sure whether I believe, and I'm certainly not trying to spark a debate over a conspiracy theory, but this thread is not about whether or not American POWs really were given to Russia, it's about what would happen next if this did occur and came to light.

So what if, in the late 1970s or even the very earlier 1980s, some form of proof that American POWs were shipped off to Russia is brought to light? Perhaps a prisoner manages to escape and make it to the American embassy, or perhaps a conscience-stricken GRU officer gets word out that this is happening. Either way, what happens next?

Presumably the American public reaction is one of outrage, but what about internationally? How might the U.S. government actually react?

I've touched on the topic of similar events happening in my U.S.-Iran war timeline, which is why I'm curious.

 

[GeographyDude]

Is it proven publicly or privately?

And maybe a conscience-stricken GRU officer could leave a clue of some sort and then think he or she has done their part.

 

[James G]

Please don't anyone shoot me but I think the US Government would cover it up. Not because they are evil or won't care a hell of a lot but because the public reaction to the revelation would force a war. And they would know what that war would mean. It would be morally wrong, but the decision would be made I think to not let the information out.

 

[hzn5pk]

What can Carter or Reagon do?

A war is out of question. Military action like Eagle Claw maybe. But depends, if it is after Eagle Claw fails then maybe not.

Perhaps the USA is not so secret when helping Afghan fighters resist the Soviets.

How much more can the US place sanctions on the Soviets.

Man, what a cluster
Iran hostages
US POW's not repatriated and in the USSR
Afghan invasion

Carter does not have a chance against Reagon in elections.

Is the POW in USSR before or after Iran hostages?

If before, then maybe US is more active militarily against Iran when that goes down.

More than likely Soviets say that these pilots did not want to return home.

 

[Forcon]

Is it proven publicly or privately?

And maybe a conscience-stricken GRU officer could leave a clue of some sort and then think he or she has done their part.

I was assuming it was proven publicly, but either one would be interesting.

Please don't anyone shoot me but I think the US Government would cover it up. Not because they are evil or won't care a hell of a lot but because the public reaction to the revelation would force a war. And they would know what that war would mean. It would be morally wrong, but the decision would be made I think to not let the information out.

I could see this happening, but I would think there would be negotiations or at least attempts at negotiation - even if the civilian leadership wanted to cover it up, I doubt the military high command would allow something like that to happen, either through selfishness, not wanting to be blamed for it later, or simply because it's the right thing to do and they could have found themselves in a similar position as those POWs taken to Russia had the circumstances been different.

What can Carter or Reagon do?

A war is out of question. Military action like Eagle Claw maybe. But depends, if it is after Eagle Claw fails then maybe not.

Perhaps the USA is not so secret when helping Afghan fighters resist the Soviets.

How much more can the US place sanctions on the Soviets.

Man, what a cluster
Iran hostages
US POW's not repatriated and in the USSR
Afghan invasion

Carter does not have a chance against Reagon in elections.

Is the POW in USSR before or after Iran hostages?

If before, then maybe US is more active militarily against Iran when that goes down.

More than likely Soviets say that these pilots did not want to return home.

I don't think a military rescue mission would be possible, even if the U.S. knew exactly where the prisoners were being held. By 1980, either they're dead at the hands of the KGB or GRU, or they've been squeezed for every piece of information the Soviets could want and are being held in gulag's or work camps. Helicopters wouldn't have enough fuel and even if they did, it would involve penetrating what might have been the most comprehensive air defence network in the world at the time.

 

[sloreck]

IMHO if the USSR or China had US POWs from Vietnam, transferred as payment for support/weapons, the odds that any of them would be alive 10-15 years after the end of the war would be essentially zero. In fact I expect that after the Russians/Chinese were convinced that they had squeezed them as dry as possible they might be kept around for a short period of time just to make sure they were dry, then disposed of. Once these prisoners have been drained of all information they have zero value - they can never be used as bargaining chips because that would mean admitting that they were traded by Vietnam to Russia/China. Keeping them around in some GULAG facility has only downsides. They will come in to contact with other prisoners and guards, which means that more and more people know of their existence which means a greater chance the information will leak. The amount of useful work to be obtained from these prisoners is minimal. Even if you have someone who is "converted", how valuable are they once their immediate knowledge has been harvested - none of them has skills that are so vital or in short supply in the USSR and you always have to worry if they converted they can always un-convert.

Prisoners squeezed, executed, and then buried in unmarked graves or even better cremated and remains dispersed have never existed. You can have this or that individual make claims but without bodies, without a paper trail (the interrogation documents), it's just another "MIA" movie. You can be sure that IF there were any POWs still alive at the time of any revelations, they would be disposed of promptly.

If the US government knew of this and covered it up I can't imagine it staying secret for very long and once revealed the political fallout will be severe. It would certainly have a major chill on US-USSR or US-PRC relations.

 

[Desert Journeyman]

For what it's worth, we do know now, with what I think is a reasonable degree of certainty, that American prisoners were held in Soviet gulags after the Second World War. See the article by James Brooke, "Decades Later, Tales of Americans in Soviet Jails," by in The New York Times, from 19 July 1996. Brooke references multiple stories of prisoners at different locations.

Another article, dated 29 July 1991, appeared in the LA Times. Written by Doyle McManus, it was titled, "American Ghosts in the Gualg." In 2006, a special joint commission was still investigating. See an 11 February 2005 article on CNN's website titled, "Official says hundreds of U.S. citizens likely died in gulags."

I guess the only question now is what happens if there is a public outcry. Presumably, the U.S. Government knew about at least some of these prisoners, but did not act to free them.

 

[sloreck]

The question is who were the Americans in the GULAG? There were quite a few Americans who went to the USSR in the 30s who were either entranced with communism, technical people to help in Soviet plants, or contractors doing work for US companies building facilities in the USSR. some of these folks ended up in the GULAG. Were any of the folks in the GULAG after 1945 American servicemen who ended up in the USSR during the war through one misadventure or another? If the former, that's unfortunate but the way it is. If they were service personnel that is a different story. While there were a small number of US POWs who refused repatriation at the end of the Korean War, it is possible some were taken to USSR/China then.

While the USA tries to help US citizens who run afoul of foreign laws when in other countries, there is only so much the USA can/will do. POWs transferred as "payment" and/or held after a conflict is over are another story. A US government that covers this up and gets caught is in deep trouble.

 

[riggerrob]

The OP's question is possible.

Plenty of American, French, etc. soldiers disappearred during the various wars in Vietnam. Many were pulverized by the massive amounts of explosives used in modern conflicts. Their mangled remains might have been buried by explosions or eaten by jungle creatures.

Consider that many of the American POWs held in the Hanoi Hitlon were better-educated aircrew. The North Vietnamese gov't held them as bargaining chips, similar to the way they traded USAF pilot Francis Garry Powers for a Russian colonel who was caught spying in the USA.
Negotiations leading to that exchange of spies will never be made public because the voting public can not handle the truth.

Less-educated American infantrymen who became POWs probably died of neglect a few days or months after capture.

By the time of the Iranian Revolution, most of those VN War POWs would have died of malnutrition.

 

[johnboy]

Please don't anyone shoot me but I think the US Government would cover it up. Not because they are evil or won't care a hell of a lot but because the public reaction to the revelation would force a war. And they would know what that war would mean. It would be morally wrong, but the decision would be made I think to not let the information out.

Agree. In fact, there is quite a bit of testimony of US POW's in Russian gulags. It's too much of a political time bomb to ever act on though.

Plus.............................it happened in JAG, so it must be true!

 

[Locke01]

Please don't anyone shoot me but I think the US Government would cover it up. Not because they are evil or won't care a hell of a lot but because the public reaction to the revelation would force a war. And they would know what that war would mean. It would be morally wrong, but the decision would be made I think to not let the information out.

A cover up actually did happen In 1954, an MVD officer stationed in Tokyo defected to the United States. His name was Yuri Rastvorov, an intelligence specialist who had previously served in North Korea. He told Eisenhower administration officials that during the war US servicemen numbering several dozen had been transferred to Russia and disappeared. His allegations were buried in a classified memo for forty years. A routine diplomatic query was filed with Moscow and ignored. It is now known that the Soviets did interrogate dozens of surviving Air Force personnel who were eventually returned to the United States (the Yeltsin government even released the transcripts) but the current government has been less than forthcoming on the subject They have NEVER admitted to the permanent detention of US prisoners from the Korean War, and I don't expect they ever will. It's also equally clear that the Eisenhower administration wrote the issue off as a lost cause about which they could prove and do nothing. Realpolitik in action.