WI: Two More catholic German house in 17th century

[Math]

The pod has two points of divergence:

Eric II of Brunswick luneburg (Welf/Hannover house), He was born Catholic, but during his childhood, after his catholic father died, he became a Lutheran by his mother, and reconverted during his adulthood, He had no heirs.

James III of Baden-hachberg (Zahringen house) , born Protestant, converted to Catholicism, died (probably murdered) leaving an Newborn heir Who died months later.

Now the point of divergence is that Eric II has an heir, and James III does not die , How would this affect imperial policy with two more Catholic houses?, How would this change marriages?

@isabella , @Nuraghe , @Kellan Sullivan

 

[Mildtryth]

Isn't the title missing something?

 

[Math]

Isn't the title missing something?

My cell phone had a problem and public by itself, before I finished the thread.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

The pod has two points of divergence:

Eric II of Brunswick luneburg (Welf/Hannover house), He was born Catholic, but during his childhood, after his catholic father died, he became a Lutheran by his mother, and reconverted during his adulthood, He had no heirs.

James III of Baden-hachberg (Zahringen house) , born Protestant, converted to Catholicism, died (probably murdered) leaving an Newborn heir Who died months later.

Now the point of divergence is that Eric II has an heir, and James III does not die , How would this affect imperial policy with two more Catholic houses?, How would this change marriages?

@isabella , @Nuraghe , @Kellan Sullivan

The potential exists for Protestant houses to remain the exception rather than the rule:
Georg the Bearded's son marries elsewhere and leaves issue/his younger son isn't born retarded.
Not just Eric of Brunswick-Calenberg but Heinrich V's eldest two sons are not killed at Sievershausen, marry and leave issue thus ensuring the Wolfenbuttel branch of the Welfs remains Catholic.
Magnus III or Philipp of Mecklenburg have children, thereby ensuring Mecklenburg remains Catholic
Kasimir of Ansbach survives and his children are raised Catholic not Protestant
Bernhard IV of Baden's grandson marries and leaves issue, ensuring the Catholic line continues.

 

[Nuraghe]

The pod has two points of divergence:

Eric II of Brunswick luneburg (Welf/Hannover house), He was born Catholic, but during his childhood, after his catholic father died, he became a Lutheran by his mother, and reconverted during his adulthood, He had no heirs.

James III of Baden-hachberg (Zahringen house) , born Protestant, converted to Catholicism, died (probably murdered) leaving an Newborn heir Who died months later.

Now the point of divergence is that Eric II has an heir, and James III does not die , How would this affect imperial policy with two more Catholic houses?, How would this change marriages?

@isabella , @Nuraghe , @Kellan Sullivan

well first of all we can safely say that the small pool of brides deemed suitable for a Habsburg ( whether imperial or Spanish branch ) is slightly larger, leading to a lower risk of encountering a genetic bottleneck like Otl, then we will certainly see important changes in the unfolding of confessional conflicts in the empire, in particular in the wars of Schmalkand, where the imperials could have a slight advantage during the clashes, perhaps leading to a victory and a peace more favorable to the Habsburgs compared to Otl, which would potentially see the 30YW fail as we know it ( especially if Ferdinand finds himself in a more favorable position in dealing with the princes, being able to force the inclusion of the Calvinists, in order to permanently divide the Protestant front ) and there is also the possibility that some cadet son will end up holding important positions in the imperial church or even end up as a cardinal

 

[Math]

well first of all we can safely say that the small pool of brides deemed suitable for a Habsburg ( whether imperial or Spanish branch ) is slightly larger, leading to a lower risk of encountering a genetic bottleneck like Otl, then we will certainly see important changes in the unfolding of confessional conflicts in the empire, in particular in the wars of Schmalkand, where the imperials could have a slight advantage during the clashes, perhaps leading to a victory and a peace more favorable to the Habsburgs compared to Otl, which would potentially see the 30YW fail as we know it ( especially if Ferdinand finds himself in a more favorable position in dealing with the princes, being able to force the inclusion of the Calvinists, in order to permanently divide the Protestant front )

Hi nuraghe always a pleasure to hear from you, could the imperial Habsburgs try to favor the descendants of Eric II of Brunswick luneburg against their protestant cousins?

About the Thirty Years' War, Changes the creation of the Catholic league, instead of just one Catholic nobleman (the Duke of Bavaria), ITTL there will be 3 Nobles in the league, It is not?

 

[Nuraghe]

Hi nuraghe always a pleasure to hear from you, could the imperial Habsburgs try to favor the descendants of Eric II of Brunswick luneburg against their protestant cousins?

About the Thirty Years' War, Changes the creation of the Catholic league, instead of just one Catholic nobleman (the Duke of Bavaria), ITTL there will be 3 Nobles in the league, It is not?

The potential exists for Protestant houses to remain the exception rather than the rule:
Georg the Bearded's son marries elsewhere and leaves issue/his younger son isn't born retarded.
Not just Eric of Brunswick-Calenberg but Heinrich V's eldest two sons are not killed at Sievershausen, marry and leave issue thus ensuring the Wolfenbuttel branch of the Welfs remains Catholic.
Magnus III or Philipp of Mecklenburg have children, thereby ensuring Mecklenburg remains Catholic
Kasimir of Ansbach survives and his children are raised Catholic not Protestant
Bernhard IV of Baden's grandson marries and leaves issue, ensuring the Catholic line continues.

Ciao Math, it's a pleasure for me too to discuss your ideas, I always find them very interesting

technically it is true that we could easily see Vienna favoring the descendants of Eric II over his Protestant relatives ( but as Kellan rightly pointed out, the conversion of the Wolfenbuttel in Otl was only due to an extreme case, namely the death in battle of the two heirs Catholics of the potentate, which may be highly subject to change in this scenario ) now speaking of the Catholic League technically in Nuremberg in 1538 an earlier version of it was formed, with Bavaria, George the Bearded and the ecclesiastical states as leading exponents of the alliance, so I think it will be normal to also see James III and Eric II included within the league, as far as 30YW is concerned, it is very likely that it won't happen ( or it won't have the devastating impact of Otl, probably if something similar happens it would be considered like a 3rd Schmalkand War, but nothing more ) given that with a stronger Catholic party, I hardly see the Protestant princes being able to prevail in a possible conflict within the Reich, preferring instead to come to terms with Charles V and Ferdinand ( although I do not completely exclude the possibility that Philip of Hesse, Ulrich of Wurttemberg and John Frederick of Saxony would end up at loggerheads with the Habsburgs again, and this time I believe they would be severely punished, as a warning to anyone who might want to challenge the power imperial, so as to break the will of the most radical faction of the Protestant movement )

 

[Vitruvius]

I think the Welf line is the more impactful of the two. A Catholic dynasty anchoring the counter reformation in the NW could have major consequences. Perhaps shoring up the Bishoprics in that region (Osnabruck, Bremen, Verden, Minden). Though there is still the conflict with the Bishopric of Hildesheim which was less about religion and more about territory. So if Hildesheim still ends up with a Wittelsbach Prince Bishop as IOTL then that could still be a source of tension.

So a Catholic Welf line wouldn't necessarily align with other Catholics in the Empire. Although if they feud with the Wittelsbachs that could push them towards the Emperor. The Habsburgs were initially excluded from a Wittelsbach led Catholic League. So perhaps the Welfs form a pro-Imperial anti-Liga Catholic block. Maybe something that could align with some of the more moderate pro-Imperial Lutherans?

Though if Eric had a child with his second wife, Dorothea, their son would be descended from Isabella of Austria (the child's great grandmother) and a first cousin of both the Duke of Lorraine and the Duke of Bavaria. So the connections would be pretty close to all the major Catholic houses but especially to the members of the Liga (Bavaria).

I'm less convinced that it would have an impact on Habsburg dynastic survival, at least as far as the line of Max II is concerned. I think the primary problem there was Rudolf's refusal to marry combined with the problematic settlement of Max II's estates that left the brothers too poor to establish their own estates and marry. So I don't see the issue as as a lack of brides. Though it would of course help to have a large gene pool in the long run.

Another dynastic issue would be that Eric's son with Dorothea would be a grandson of Christina of Denmark and thus theoretically a claimant to Christian II's rights in Denmark and Norway, such as they were. I don't think this ever meant anything to Christina's other descendants in Bavaria and Lorraine but those two states were much further removed from the Baltic where as Brunswick Luneburg is right next door with traditional connections to the Danish crown. I don't know if that would cause any anxiety on the part of Christian IV or not.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

The potential exists for Protestant houses to remain the exception rather than the rule:
Georg the Bearded's son marries elsewhere and leaves issue/his younger son isn't born retarded.
Not just Eric of Brunswick-Calenberg but Heinrich V's eldest two sons are not killed at Sievershausen, marry and leave issue thus ensuring the Wolfenbuttel branch of the Welfs remains Catholic.
Magnus III or Philipp of Mecklenburg have children, thereby ensuring Mecklenburg remains Catholic
Kasimir of Ansbach survives and his children are raised Catholic not Protestant
Bernhard IV of Baden's grandson marries and leaves issue, ensuring the Catholic line continues.

Other posdibilities:

-Johann Wilhelm of Cleves have kids.

-Ludwig X of Bavaria decides to marry and re-estabilish Bavaria-Landshut line.

Catholic Grifite line is possible too if planned marriage between Johann Friedrich and Katarzyna Jagiellonka is finalised.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

try to favor the descendants of Eric II of Brunswick luneburg against their protestant cousins?

no need to favour Eric. If Sievershausen happens like OTL, it leaves Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel to Heinrich V's last child, Julius (who went Protestant). Kill Jules off before he can have children, and the next heir to Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel is Eric. Who is definitely going to be using his upped status to a) push for an annulment of his marriage to Sidonie of Saxony; b) press the Habsburgs for the archduchess they promised him for his support (and no, he won't accept Johanna like they tried to fob him off with OTL. He'll refuse TTL as well). Given that Maximilian II's daughters would be too young, Felipe II and Ferdinand II having none, I imagine the Habsburgs will try for a Bavarian proxy

Ludwig X of Bavaria decides to marry and re-estabilish Bavaria-Landshut line.

that's going to need a different inheritance agreement reached between he and his brother in the 1510s. Essentially, the duke of Bavaria agreed to enfeof Ludwig X with Landshut, but in exchange, Ludo had to promise he wouldn't marry (or if he did, he wouldn't be able to transmit Landshut to his children). It's why Ludo was essentially looking for an heiress (Anna of Hungary, Hedwig Jagiellon, Hedwig of Munsterberg, Kristina of Denmark) to marry, so that he would have land to pass on.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

that's going to need a different inheritance agreement reached between he and his brother in the 1510s. Essentially, the duke of Bavaria agreed to enfeof Ludwig X with Landshut, but in exchange, Ludo had to promise he wouldn't marry (or if he did, he wouldn't be able to transmit Landshut to his children). It's why Ludo was essentially looking for an heiress (Anna of Hungary, Hedwig Jagiellon, Hedwig of Munsterberg, Kristina of Denmark) to marry, so that he would have land to pass on.

His youngest brother Ernst (who was expected to join clergy but refused to take the vows eventually) also was looking for a wife (he was interested in Anna Jagiellonka, daughter of Zygmunt Stary).

 

[Math]

no need to favour Eric. If Sievershausen happens like OTL, it leaves Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel to Heinrich V's last child, Julius (who went Protestant). Kill Jules off before he can have children, and the next heir to Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel is Eric. Who is definitely going to be using his upped status to a) push for an annulment of his marriage to Sidonie of Saxony; b) press the Habsburgs for the archduchess they promised him for his support (and no, he won't accept Johanna like they tried to fob him off with OTL. He'll refuse TTL as well). Given that Maximilian II's daughters would be too young, Felipe II and Ferdinand II having none, I imagine the Habsburgs will try for a Bavarian proxy


that's going to need a different inheritance agreement reached between he and his brother in the 1510s. Essentially, the duke of Bavaria agreed to enfeof Ludwig X with Landshut, but in exchange, Ludo had to promise he wouldn't marry (or if he did, he wouldn't be able to transmit Landshut to his children). It's why Ludo was essentially looking for an heiress (Anna of Hungary, Hedwig Jagiellon, Hedwig of Munsterberg, Kristina of Denmark) to marry, so that he would have land to pass on.

Good observation, following the scenario that Eric inherits Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel With jules/julius Dying, How would this Catholic Welf line behave in imperial politics? Vetruvius brought up that there would probably be a rivalry with the Wittelsbach, There is also the connection with Denmark.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Good observation, following the scenario that Eric inherits Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel With jules/julius Dying, How would this Catholic Welf line behave in imperial politics? Nuraghe brought up that there would probably be a rivalry with the Wittelsbach,

the traditional Welf rivalry with the Protestant Wettins (ICR the reason) seems more likely than a feud between two Catholic dynasties right out the gate

There is also the connection with Denmark.

that's the other branch (Wilhelm V married Dorothea of Denmark). Eric is unlikely to try for Dorothée de Lorraine here (she was half lame IIRC), so unless Eric is married to Renée de Lorraine, I don't see one.

 

[Vitruvius]

Good observation, following the scenario that Eric inherits Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel With jules/julius Dying, How would this Catholic Welf line behave in imperial politics? Vetruvius brought up that there would probably be a rivalry with the Wittelsbach, There is also the connection with Denmark.

I don't know that its a rivalry with the Wittelsbachs specifically so much as with whomever is Prince-Bishop of Hildesheim who IOTL happened to be a Wittelsbach from 1573 on. The Hildesheim issue a potentially serious complication because it would diminish or run counter to a role as Catholic champion in lower saxony for Eric's line to be in conflict with a Catholic prince-bishopric.