WI: Toyotomi Hideyoshi doesn't invade Korea?

[GameBawesome]

In 1592, the Japanese invaded the Korea, which has become known as the Imjin War. Toyotomi Hideyoshi, ruler of Japan, gathered large armies to invade the Korean Peninsula to invade China. There were many speculations on why Hideyoshi invaded Korea: Some say it was Megalomania for Hideyoshi to become Emperor of China, or just take Korea, others say it was to weaken Clans after Toyotomi's unification of Japan, others say he just wanted trade concessions, etc.

After initial successes when landing, the Japanese effort began to stall, due supply issues, Guerilla fighting by Koreans, the efforts of the legendary Admiral Yi Sun-sin, and then eventually Ming Chinese re-enforcements. After a brief stent of laughable negations on both sides, Hideyoshi invaded Korea again, but it didn't go well. In the end, the Japanese pulled out after the death of Toyotomi Hideyoshi in 1598.

In the end, there was countless deaths and nothing really to show. On the contrary, the Invasion of Korea would go on to affect all three countries. In Japan, it weakened the Toyotomi regime, and allow Tokugawa Ieyasu to take power. In Joseon Korea, it weakened the country and allowed Manchu's to vassalize the kingdom. In Ming China, it destroyed the finances, and later the Manchu Qing Dynasty took over China.

A common and interesting question of the Imjin War is "What if the Japanese was successful?", but here's question I rarely seen asked....

What if Japan didn't invade Korea? What if Toyotomi Hideyoshi decided not to try and invade China? How would no Imjin War effect these three nations?

 

[Metempsychosis]

What if Japan didn't invade Korea? What if Toyotomi Hideyoshi decided not to try and invade China? How would no Imjin War effect these three nations?

Hmm. With China and Korea not savaged by war, the Ming might survive the Manchus a bit longer. Perhaps the fall of the Ming would instead play out in a more protracted decline, and Korea might make its own play in the chaos: Maybe we see a Joseon China? Perhaps the Ming might survive, but the institutional foundations were shaky even after the Wanli reforms, which could still stall because the bureaucrats would still be vicious and petty as IOTL.

As for Japan, sakoku might not be as much of a thing: there would likely still be restrictions and Christian persecutions, but never as complete a sealing off of the nation as IOTL. Perhaps instead of the Grand Campaign, Hideyoshi would instead send trade and exploration expeditions across Southeast Asia, greatly expanding what the Red Seal Ships were already doing. Taiwan may well become a Japanese island instead of a Chinese one, considering China didn't really take much interest in it until Zheng Chenggong built it into his home base. And trading with India might be a thing: that could have an interesting effect on Japanese Buddhism if they can get Buddhist sutras and maybe other religious or philosophical tracts straight from the source. And of course there's the possibility of Muslim samurai.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

Hmm. With China and Korea not savaged by war, the Ming might survive the Manchus a bit longer. Perhaps the fall of the Ming would instead play out in a more protracted decline, and Korea might make its own play in the chaos: Maybe we see a Joseon China? Perhaps the Ming might survive, but the institutional foundations were shaky even after the Wanli reforms, which could still stall because the bureaucrats would still be vicious and petty as IOTL.

Part of the reason the Manchu were able to unify was due to the Ming being distracted by the Japanese invasion and the costs associated with it. Previously, the Ming (and Joseon, to some extent) had interfered with the Jurchen tribes, which can be clearly seen in Nurhaci's 7 Grievances. These were the below:

1. The Ming killed Nurhaci's father and grandfather without reason;
2. The Ming suppressed Jianzhou and favored Yehe and Hada clans;
3. The Ming violated agreement of territories with Nurhaci;
4. The Ming sent troops to protect Yehe against Jianzhou;
5. The Ming supported Yehe to break its promise to Nurhaci;
6. The Ming forced Nurhaci to give up the lands in Chaihe, Sancha, and Fuan;
7. The Ming's official Shang Bozhi abused his power and rode roughshod over the people.

With the Imjin War and its huge costs, the Ming were unable to hinder Jurchen unification as they had previously. Additionally, the Joseon could no longer be counted on as a proper counterweight against the Jurchens. During the reign of Gwanghaegun, Nurhaci attempted to improve relations with the Joseon and have it side with the Manchu over the Ming, since he didn't want to face a two-front war. Gwanghaegun being overthrown in favour of the pro-Ming Injo saw the Manchu launch two invasions of the Joseon to neutralise it prior to the conquest of China. The Joseon had not fully recovered from the Imjin War and were steamrolled in short order during both invasions.

Without the Imjin War, Jurchen unification and the formation of the Later Jin/Qing dynasty is likely delayed or averted altogether due to external intervention. The Ming would have been able to observe the initial anti-Nurhaci tribe coalition and aided it to blunt Nurhaci's initial momentum if their attention was not directed elsewhere, thereby avoiding the Manchu becoming so powerful the Ming could not longer directly intervene against them. The Joseon would have been able to act was more than a small speed bump for the Manchu and served as deterrence against Manchu aggression against the Ming (at least longer than they did OTL).

Without the Manchu exacerbating the Ming's border issues and weakening their armed forces, the Ming likely survives quite a while longer until some peasant revolt successfully overthrows them (a la the Shun dynasty). It took 30 years of Manchu aggression to finally crack the Ming and another 40 years to finally cement Manchu rule, so it's not like the Ming were doomed following the Imjin War, which did take its toll on the Ming.

As for the Joseon, it was the Imjin War that prevented Gwanghaegun from abandoning the Ming during the Manchu-Ming conflicts and could at best try to maintain neutrality. This is because many in the Joseon court considered the Joseon indebted to the Ming for their assistance in the war and had a duty to try and help the Ming, even when the circumstances were impossible and even after the Ming were conquered entirely. It got to the point where Gwanghaegun's neutrality policy saw him overthrown in a coup that saw Injo, one of the worst kings of the Joseon dynasty, ascend to the throne. Whether or not Seonjo could've dealt with the court factions that crippled the nation without the Imjin War preventing any real reform is anyone's guess, but at the very least the national economy and succession shouldn't be as broken.

However, the Joseon military was not in a state to actually conquer anything even before the Japanese invasions and the Joseon were not intent on conquering new lands at any point, so Joseon China is less likely than Japan conquering China, which was also very much infeasible considering the personality in power and the state of the militaries and navies at the time. They might be able to push into Manchuria to reclaim old Goguryeo/Balhae lands, but it's more likely court factional strife just distracts the nation for a while longer. In any case, without the Imjin War, the Joseon have no debt to repay to the Ming, so they'll likely not get actively involved in any Ming internal conflicts (since they hadn't in previous conflicts and only sent troops to help the Ming against the Manchu after the Imjin War).

 

[Aluma]

Maybe we see a Joseon China?

I remember someone wanted to do that TL here but I cant put my finger on who it was