WI Tokugawa decides some expansion may desirable

[Commissar]

As the Tin Says. Tokugawa after winning at Sekigahara and consolidating his position decides that limited, supported, expansion is desirable and necessary.

Ignoring Korea, except for the Island of Cheju, Tokugawa orders the conquest of Hokkaido, Sakhalin, the Ryukyu Islands, the Kuriles, the Bonin and Volcano Islands, sets up the Taiwanese as a Puppet Kingdom, and orders the defeated Toyotomi Faction Clans to conquer and settle the Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, Wake, Marcus, and Palaus and works to end Spanish Influence and power in the Phillipines.

The Ideal here is to have a deep strategic defense, get rid of trouble makers, expand trade, and maintain Shogunate control by prestige and a set of supported client states.

Let the discussion begin.

 

[kasumigenx]

As the Tin Says. Tokugawa after winning at Sekigahara and consolidating his position decides that limited, supported, expansion is desirable and necessary.

Ignoring Korea, except for the Island of Cheju, Tokugawa orders the conquest of Hokkaido, Sakhalin, the Ryukyu Islands, the Kuriles, the Bonin and Volcano Islands, sets up the Taiwanese as a Puppet Kingdom, and orders the defeated Toyotomi Faction Clans to conquer and settle the Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, Wake, Marcus, and Palaus and works to end Spanish Influence and power in the Phillipines.

The Ideal here is to have a deep strategic defense, get rid of trouble makers, expand trade, and maintain Shogunate control by prestige and a set of supported client states.

Let the discussion begin.

If Japan and Brunei become allies the two can expel Spain and Brunei regains control of the Philippines and Japan can expand to some islands in the Pacific, the question is how will they ally with each other.

 

[DG Valdron]

This is actually quite interesting. I'm not sure how plausible or possible it is, since I am not well grounded in this particular area of history in this region.

I do have some questions. It strikes me that to the extent that Japan had some overall concept of political, economic or military interests or potentials beyond its home islands, most of that would focus on mainland asia - basically China and Korea.

I'm not sure about the basis for an initiative to push into the deeper pacific Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, Wake, Marcus, and Palaus. Why would they do that?

For another question, why didn't they take Sakhalin in this timeline? It seems like the most logical step. Sakhalin is a part of the archipelago, and presumably reasonably accessible.

 

[Solomaxwell6]

This is actually quite interesting. I'm not sure how plausible or possible it is, since I am not well grounded in this particular area of history in this region.

I do have some questions. It strikes me that to the extent that Japan had some overall concept of political, economic or military interests or potentials beyond its home islands, most of that would focus on mainland asia - basically China and Korea.

I'm not sure about the basis for an initiative to push into the deeper pacific Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, Wake, Marcus, and Palaus. Why would they do that?

OTL, a few invasions of Korea had recently been tried (and failed). It's possible that Tokugawa doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor, Toyotomi. Perhaps he decides to go for some easier targets.

For another question, why didn't they take Sakhalin in this timeline? It seems like the most logical step. Sakhalin is a part of the archipelago, and presumably reasonably accessible.

Yes, Sakhalin seems like it'd be prime territory for an expansionist Japan. There was some contact around that time, but AFAIK it was just typical things like Japanese fishermen bumping into the Sakhalin coast and such rather than any sort of official mission. I have no idea what the demographics of Sakhalin circa 1600 would've been, but it couldn't be nearly big enough to pose a threat. Might be some climate issues, but that's more of an annoying obstacle than anything at all insurmountable.

 

[Commissar]

I'm not sure about the basis for an initiative to push into the deeper pacific Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, Wake, Marcus, and Palaus. Why would they do that?

Easy pickings and a place to exile defeated clans and restless folks. Some have useful resources as an added bonus and prime whaling grounds if they don't.

For another question, why didn't they take Sakhalin in this timeline? It seems like the most logical step. Sakhalin is a part of the archipelago, and presumably reasonably accessible.

That was included in the list.

 

[Falastur]

orders the defeated Toyotomi Faction Clans to conquer and settle the Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, Wake, Marcus, and Palaus

The Ideal here is to have a deep strategic defense
...
maintain Shogunate control by prestige

I kind of see these as mutually incompatible. Isn't asking the conquered clans to conquer and settle a bunch of islands just going to result in strong(er), Japanese-tech independent kingdoms with decent navies and everything appearing on those islands? What's the incentive for the Toyotomi to stay loyal to Japan once they've been exiled far beyond regular contact range with the Shogun? It'll just force Japan to have to reconquer them again at a later date.

 

[DG Valdron]

Taking a quick glance at Wikipedia, some things come to light. Basically, pretty forbidding climate, unlike the rest of the archipelago, Sakhalin is cooled by arctic waters from the sea of Okhotsk, so for much of the island, the average summertime temperature is around sixty degrees fahrenheit. Meanwhile, the growing season is a hundred days or less. That would probably make it pretty tough for Japanese agriculture.

Sakhalin is heavily forested. Mostly coniferous, fir, larch and pine. I don't know what, if any, commercial value this would have to the Japanese. The more valuable tree species all seem to be in the south. The Japanese, I believe, had had issues with deforestation and acted to protect their forests. Perhaps virgin stands of timber might be a big motivator.

Apart from that, there's fishing in and around the island. But I don't think that without storage and refrigeration, that the Japanese would have had much use for it.

The principal navigiable river, the Tym, flows north and northeast and opens into the sea of Okhotsk in the north. Which would give the advantage to northern colonization. The Island has two north/south mountain ranges with a swampy valley between them, which would make conquest and settlement tough slogging.

Also the strait that separates it from the mainland is only seven kilometers, and freezes up during the winter. Which again, makes conquest and colonization from the north the easier option.

None of this is make or break, but its a confluence of things that tends to trend away from Japan.

Nevertheless, Japanese penetration seems to go back to 1616. A Japanese settlement was established in 1679, and appears to have engaged in some settlement and colonization in the south subsequently. Japan formally claimed the whole Island in 1807, and claimed again in 1845 and again in 1865.

But by 1850, the Russians were beginning to settle the north. The Chinese had maintained loose sovereignty previously over the island as tribute peoples. But released their interest to the Russians around 1860. From 1855 on, there seems to have been a loose sharing arrangement, with no formal border, but with the Russians occupying the north and Japanese occupying the south.

Then in 1875, the Japanese swapped their interest in Sakhalin for the Kuril Islands. 1905, the Russo-Japanese war, the Japanese took back the south.

By 1945, there were almost a half million japanese or japanese subjects in the southern half, which speaks to some huge investment over the preceding 40 years.

I dunno. It seems like it could have been a near thing. Al that it would really have taken was a significant Japanese investment or presence in the north that blocked Russian colonization

 

[DG Valdron]

The Kurils are a band of islands that run from Hokkaido to Kamchatka. Rich fishing and sealing grounds. The islands themselves are small, quite volcanic, and range from temperate to arctic. Japanese involvement in them goes back maybe 370 years. I'm astonished that the Japanese in 1870 traded their interests in Sakhalin for them.

Obviously, as fur and sealing locations, the places had a lot more interest to Russia than Japan. They needed those furs to keep warm. But I could see them being places of exile for defeated clans. Small enough to keep your enemies in good condition, not large enough for them to become problems.

 

[Commissar]

Re: Refrigeration

Ever heard of salting?

It was the main way of preserving food back then.

 

[Shurik]

Dito on the Japanese in Sakhalin bit above: that's a more detailed version of what I was going to say.

On heading south though: I'd think the Japanese would need to seriously beef up their navy. One of the big reasons they got their tooshies handed to them in the Korean invasions was because their support ships got shot to pieces by some Korean admiral (forget the name ATM...).

Say in reaction to this, they decide they really NEED a sizeable and capable navy to (1) truly hold back the european barbarians and their much larger ships, and (2) to ensure those upstart Koreans really don't perform a repeat of their raping the Japanese merchant marine gang. I'm inclined to think that after decades of successful pirating the area there, they had simply gotten complacent and lazy.
That would be a good point to start from: a resurgent urge/need to rebuild a new/better/bigger navy would mean a need for trees = Sakhalin. More, bigger boats means they range farther = Taiwan, Philippines, etc.

 

[Shurik]

The Kurils are a band of islands that run from Hokkaido to Kamchatka. Rich fishing and sealing grounds. The islands themselves are small, quite volcanic, and range from temperate to arctic. Japanese involvement in them goes back maybe 370 years. I'm astonished that the Japanese in 1870 traded their interests in Sakhalin for them.

Obviously, as fur and sealing locations, the places had a lot more interest to Russia than Japan. They needed those furs to keep warm. But I could see them being places of exile for defeated clans. Small enough to keep your enemies in good condition, not large enough for them to become problems.

Not until MUCH later. The Russians' didn't bother doing anything with Sakhalin until the 1800's.
And if the Japanese are going to effectively be able to expand, they're going to have to get a move-on much earlier than that.

 

[Kvasir]

Well before they reach Karafuto they need to get to Hokkaido and there really was nothing there to force their hand. Russia was too far away for concern and the Ainu were no real threat. The Matsumae-han had complete control over the trade rights with the Ainu so you really need to alter the culture of the Edo Period.

It was only the Russian threat that led to the feudal nature of the island to end and then expansion of control of the island into the "central state". The Chishima Islands were only taken properly after a treaty giving up Karafuto with the Russians and this was in 1875 (after the Meiji restoration) while the Ryukya Islands were under Chinese suzerainty as well as Japanese so Japan will need to address this if they want to fully annex them. But to annex them they'd need to deal with the Satsuma-Han who have complete trading rights over them. This was a useful bridge for the Satsuma under Sakoku to trade with the rest of the world- I don't think they'd like to lose that edge.

I don't know how it could work.

 

[DG Valdron]

Rykyu is basically a gimme The Bonin and Volcano Islands are somewhat comprehensible.

But the Carolinas, Marianas, Wake, Marcus, etc seem to make no sense to me. They're deep pacific, no particular strategic or resource value to Japan, not even as bases.

 

[DG Valdron]

Re: Refrigeration

Ever heard of salting?

It was the main way of preserving food back then.

Yeah, the Portugese and the Basques were travelling all the way across the ocean to harvest fish off the grand banks of Newfoundland. They'd salt or smoke the catch on Newfoundland's rocky shores. There's even still a town in Newfoundland called Port Au Basque.

But I'm not sure if there was a need or a market in Japanese culture of the time for these sorts of long range fisheries and preservation techniques.

 

[Kvasir]

Rykyu is basically a gimme The Bonin and Volcano Islands are somewhat comprehensible.

But the Carolinas, Marianas, Wake, Marcus, etc seem to make no sense to me. They're deep pacific, no particular strategic or resource value to Japan, not even as bases.

Ryūkyū's status as a Chinese Tributary has strong complications. If the idea is to avoid Korea I assume it is important to avoid China. And since it is in Satsuma's best interest to keep Ryūkyū separate from the Han system I don't think annexation is that straight forward.

 

[DG Valdron]

Not until MUCH later. The Russians' didn't bother doing anything with Sakhalin until the 1800's.
And if the Japanese are going to effectively be able to expand, they're going to have to get a move-on much earlier than that.

True. And looking at Hokkaido, it wasn't until the 1800's, particularly 1850, that the Japanese got serious about that place. That was principally in response to Russian expansionism.

It seems to me that we're going two directions: North and South.

For the north, Hokkaido is basically the key. If in the 1700's, the Tokugawa or their predecessors get heavily or deeply involved with or concerned over Hokkaido, then I could see a basis for expansionism out through Sakhalin and the Kurils. I don't know that such expansion would follow naturally. But it strikes me that without Hokkaido, such expansionism wouldn't take place at all.

Looking south, it seems to me that what you're describing is Japan on a head on collision course with Spain. But I don't see the motivation. Spain was principally concerned with securing trade with China through the Pacific. Why would Japan care about interfering with this? They don't have a dog in the fight.

On the other hand, is there anything in Taiwan or the Phillipines that would draw Japanese interest or desire? I'm not sure.

Maybe Spain takes a much more predatory approach to Japan, gets involved in the civil wars, pisses off the Tokugawa?

But then, that wouldn't incite anything to the north at all.

Unless, of course, the Tokugawa decided they needed to get heavily involved in seafaring, to defend themselves from the Spanish or from Piraces and needed northern timber for ships and shipbuilding?

Its possible. But Tokugawa's motivations and perspectives need a big shift

 

[DG Valdron]

Ryūkyū's status as a Chinese Tributary has strong complications. If the idea is to avoid Korea I assume it is important to avoid China. And since it is in Satsuma's best interest to keep Ryūkyū separate from the Han system I don't think annexation is that straight forward.

Sakhalin was also a chinese tributary. But I don't think that the Chinese influence was really all that strong that far out. This was remote and far away stuff. There was a period when the Ryukyu were paying tribute to both the Emperor and Shogun, and authority or deference seemed to shift over quite naturally.

The problem with Korea, I'm assuming, is that it's a classic land war in Asia scenario. A territory and population and level of technology roughly on par with Japan itself. So not really viable.

As I read this WI, the notion is that Tokugawa goes around picking all the low hanging fruit.

 

[DG Valdron]

The more interesting thing is that a Japan which is this expansionistic this early is going to be quite a different place than the insular inclusive Japan. This will play out in major ways.

By the way: I find your notion, perhaps a bit of a Japan Wank, interesting as hell and would dearly love to see you do something with it. So if I've posted a bit, its not to tear you down, but to get a handle on it. I fully encourage you to give it your all.

 

[Commissar]

The more interesting thing is that a Japan which is this expansionistic this early is going to be quite a different place than the insular inclusive Japan. This will play out in major ways.

By the way: I find your notion, perhaps a bit of a Japan Wank, interesting as hell and would dearly love to see you do something with it. So if I've posted a bit, its not to tear you down, but to get a handle on it. I fully encourage you to give it your all.

Who me?

I just posted this as a thought exercise to get ideals flowing.

 

[DG Valdron]

Who me?

Yes, you!

I just posted this as a thought exercise to get ideals flowing.

Terrific. Now take some of those ideas and get going. Chop chop. I want to see a SubversivePanda quality timeline.