WI: Three Dead Popes

In 1978, Pope John Paul I was elected to much celebration. Known as the 'Smiling Pope', he made it his mission to humanise the Papacy and weed out corruption. It was expected that he would rule for at least a decade. The world was shocked when he died within thirty-three days of his election. A Papal Conclave was called to find a successor.

After eight ballots, a successor was found in Karol Wojtyla who took the name Pope John Paul II. Although he was a conservative, John Paul II was seen as a charismatic negotiator. Once again, however, the world was stunned when on May 18, 1981 the Pope was shot multiple times by the Turkish assassin Mehmet Ali Agca. Against all odds, the Pope recovered from his injuries and went on to serve until 2005. Had he not, however, the Catholic Church would have been forced into another conclave less than three years after the last.

Based upon the information we have of the 1978 conclave, the only remaining serious candidates are Cardinals Benelli and Siri. While the conclave would have become deadlocked temporarily, due to John Paul II's appointments the election is more likely to swing in Benelli's favor. He is a strict authoritarian poised steadfast against the USSR and communism as a whole. Unfortunately, Benelli has a serious heart condition that he is unaware of. He will die by 1982, thrusting the Church into a fourth conclave in less than five years.

What happens now? How does the Church cope with such a rapid succession of Popes and who is likely to become the successor? What political ramifications will this have for the Church, Italy and the rest of the world?
 
The Pontificial Seat has switched much more rapidly before, they coped then and while it will be a bit rough, they'll cope again.
 
The Pontifical Seat has switched much more rapidly before, they coped then and while it will be a bit rough, they'll cope again.

Actually, the only time the Papacy has changed so rapidly was from 1276-1277. In more than 900 years, the Church has only had four conclaves within five years once. This would be the second time. While the Church will survive there's also bound to be some sort of shake-up in Catholicism with three Popes dying under mysterious circumstances.
 
Assuming Ağca is captured, there is an interesting possible connection between Cardinal Ugo Poletti and the Emanuela Orlandi case.
Ağca did claim in 2005 to an Italian newspaper that he had help inside the Vatican, but later denied it. If you're really looking for a cardinal, Poletti was the vicar-general of Rome and possible received up to thirty votes in the papal conclave of October 1978. It has possibilities.

It looks like Paul Marcinkus may have had something to do with that too.
Speaking of which, Marcinkus foiled a 1982 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II. If that goes through in Benelli's favor... Two Years of Three Popes in 5 years? It's not quite 1276 (the Year of Four Popes), but it's something.
 
It looks like Paul Marcinkus may have had something to do with that too.
Speaking of which, Marcinkus foiled a 1982 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II. If that goes through in Benelli's favor... Two Years of Three Popes in 5 years? It's not quite 1276 (the Year of Four Popes), but it's something.

Dont forget that Siri was still around and by the time of Pope Benelli's death he could step in and claim the Papacy...

As he was deeply conservative it would be quite a shock after after the charismatic John-Paul II and the liberal Benelli...
 
1. The death of John Paul II in 1981 would be a major blow to Solidarity -and it just might spark an armed insurrection. There would be major butterflies in Poland and the rest of the Warsaw Pact, ones hard to calculate.

2. Benelli having been rejected in two successive conclaves was unlikely to finally get the nod in a third, even with the new JPII creations in the college. Instead, the likely result would be just what happened in the 1978 conclaves: a compromise candidate. Siri was unlikely; Benelli nearly as unlikely.
 
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