WI: the Netherlands are dragged back to the German sphere after receiving part of the Rhineland in 1815

[Mario]

In another thread it was discussed the possibility that Prussia could have kept its Eastern borders of 1795 after Vienna, something that might have lead to them to not receiving the Province of the Rhine as IOTL (or at least not all of the province).

In this scenario, it is possible that the Rhine territories could go to other powers like Hannover, Bavaria or the United Kingdom of the Netherlands. In case the UKN would have received a significant part of the Rhineland (maybe including Cologne), would this mean that the Netherlands would be dragged back to the German sphere due to this?
Because this might mean that a bigger and more important part of the UKN than just Luxembourg or Limburg would be probably included in the German Confederation, so I guess that the German affairs of Zollverein, the balance of power between Prussia and Austria etc. would affect the UKN in a higher degree than IOTL.

 

[Mechadogzilla]

To make a long argument rather short, the Austrians, Prussians, and other German states have interests opposing letting the UKN into Germany like that. And they could easily stop such a proposal, no matter what the status of the East Prussian border is. Even if the UKN managed to acquire the territory, it’s dubious they would hold it for very long, given the UKN’s instability and the success of the Belgian Revolution.

 

[kham_coc]

To make a long argument rather short, the Austrians, Prussians, and other German states have interests opposing letting the UKN into Germany like that. And they could easily stop such a proposal, no matter what the status of the East Prussian border is. Even if the UKN managed to acquire the territory, it’s dubious they would hold it for very long, given the UKN’s instability and the success of the Belgian Revolution.

Skipping territories, why would say Austria not want the ukn in the German confederation? As far as I understand it that would help them in balancing prussia?
(Obvi what the ukn wants is a different question) .

 

[Albidoom]

Skipping territories, why would say Austria not want the ukn in the German confederation? As far as I understand it that would help them in balancing prussia?
(Obvi what the ukn wants is a different question) .

Technically yes but it might just as well balance Austria. Furthermore once nationalism kicks in (as long as the Dutch are still considered "Deutsch") then it might become a rally point around which the smaller states might gather (and that neither Austria nor Prussia will be very fond of)

Also in OTL 1864 when they won against Denmark there had been some ambitions to make Schleswig-Holstein into a Grand Duchy of its own and become a new member of the Confederation, but both Austria and Prussia opposed that and it finally ended up being a Prussian province.

 

[Samuel Von Straßburg]

I imagine your best bet is Prussia recieving all of Saxony in the Congress of Vienna and not gaining either the Rhine or Westphalia provinces.

In OTL the plans for this involved giving a good chunk of the Rhine to the Wettins in a new Kingdom of Luxemburg.

 

[Mario]

Skipping territories, why would say Austria not want the ukn in the German confederation? As far as I understand it that would help them in balancing prussia?
(Obvi what the ukn wants is a different question) .

Austria would be pleased to introduce another medium-sized (specially if anti-Prussian) state to balance the power in the GC sphere.
Probably the UKN would not be that enthusiastic, but if this means that is a condition for getting worthy territories like i.e. Cologne, then they will accept it.

 

[GauchoBadger]

In OTL the plans for this involved giving a good chunk of the Rhine to the Wettins in a new Kingdom of Luxemburg.

Wouldn't it be more acceptable to the great powers for the Wettins to receive Westphalia, Berg, and the Ruhr if just to keep them to size compared to OTL post-1815 Saxony?

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

France is not going to be happy with these arrangements for sure which might have some big implications during the Orleanist Monarchy or during the Second Empire if either of those French governments happen to arise.

 

[Samuel Von Straßburg]

Wouldn't it be more acceptable to the great powers for the Wettins to receive Westphalia, Berg, and the Ruhr if just to keep them to size compared to OTL post-1815 Saxony?

That is what I was roughly refering to. When I say a Kingdom centred on Luxemburg, it would include much of what became the Rhine and Westphalia provinces. These areas were mostly rural land at this point and weren't considered massively valuable beyond their connection to the Rhine. The 2 criteria used roughly in territorial compensation at the Congress of Vienna were population and economic size.

To keep Prussia out of the Rhine they would have to receive Saxony. The Wettin's would then need to be compensated with a roughly equivalent territory. There would also need to be a new middling sizes Kingdom on the Rhine to fit in with the containment of France policy. Thus a new Kingdom of Luxemburg stretching up the Rhine into Westphalia.

 

[Samuel Von Straßburg]

Going back to the original question, I don't think that the Netherlands not gaining Luxemburg puts them anymore in Germany's sphere.

There is no real reason to be any closer than the already very close relationship of OTL. Locally perhaps there are some stronger ties as the New Kingdom of Luxemburg is keen to reach out to its neighbors to feel safty in numbers.

Limburg only became a part of the German Confederation to appease Gean nationalists for the loss of Western Luxembourg to Belgium.

Long term Prussia is weaker from this as it doesn't gain what turns out to be the most industrialised region of Europe. Nor does it have the drive to become contiguous. Short term Prussia is scarier as it has the industry of Saxony behind it. (Prussia would be known as Prussia-Saxony, as per plans in OTL.)

I think you would still get the Austro Prussian rivalry over who becomes leader of Germany, but the game will be very different from OTL.

 

[Vnix]

One thing that needs to be noted is that the dialect of Köln is actually way more on the Dutch side than the German one. And there's similar things going on in various Rhineland areas. Also there's already a standard Dutch by that time and it will not be completely going away. It's more likely this'll start becoming more dominant in the Dutch areas of the Rhineland.