WI: The Iberian Union happened only after 1700 with Portugal inheriting Spain?

Diego

I started to think recently about a TL based on the following POD: João Manuel, son of João III (John III) and father of Sebastião (Sebastian) of Portugal lives longer. The lineage of John Manuel goes as follows:

John IV Manuel (I) married with Joanna of Austria
1. Sebastian I (b.1554 d.1585)
2. Afonso (b. 1557)
3. Joanna (b. 1559)
4. Phillip (b. 1563)
5. Manuela (b. 1568)

Sebastian married Margareth of Valois, they had only one surviving child, Manuel II (b. 1580)

Manuel II (b.1580 d.1629) married ?
1 Afonso VI (b.1598)
2 Catherine (b.1608)
3 Isabel (b.1612)

Afonso VI (b.1598 d.1650)
1 Joana (1617)
2 John V Manuel (II) (1633)
3 Maria Manuela (1635)
4 Maria Beatriz (1646)
5 Maria Luisa (1648)


John V Manuel (II) (b.1633 - d.1678) married with ?
1 Sebastian II (b.1654 d.1679)
2 Joana (b. 1655)
3 Dinis II (b. 1662)
4 Isabel (b. 1667)
5 Manuela (b. 1672)
6 Duarte (b. 1676)
7 Luzia (b. 1678)

Dinis II (b.1662 - d.1701) married Maria Teresa of Aragon and Castile
1 Duarte II (b. 1686)
2 Sebastian (b. 1692)
3 Maria Luisa (b. 1695)
4 Maria Alexandra (b. 1697)

Meanwhile in Spain ITTL the kings succeed with different people bearing the same names of the kings of OTL, so it is Philip III, then Philip IV, followed by Charles II. Charles has only two surviving children.

Charles II (b. 1635 d.1669)
1 Philip V (b. 1661 d. 1685) married with an Austrian Princess, had no issue.
2 Maria Teresa (b. 1663 d. 1700) married the king of Portugal

So the question of the title can finally be made: What would happen if the Iberian Union happened only after 1700 with Portugal inheriting Spain? Also, what type of Spanish and Portuguese Empires would Duarte II inherit? Would Austria just accept Spain, Naples, Milan and the other Habsburg possessions going to the Avis or would they protest?
 
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Janprimus

Mildtryth said:
I can't say, but they sure will have a easier time accepting that than accepting France getting it.
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By that point, not only Austria, but also France had a serious claim on the Spanish possessions. A French candidate most likely can get away with the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily, Austria will be offered the duchy of Milan and the Southern Netherlands (both in the Empire), and maybe an opportunistic Savoy can get away with the kingdom of Sardinia. IMHO a conflict, which will grant Portugal Castile and Aragon proper, and probably most of the colonies, other rivals might take over some.
Still I don't see France nor Austria agreeing to Portugal just going away with the whole pie.
 

Diego

My thoughs about how the world would evolve between 1570 and 1680 are that:

- Portugal is going to be much stronger than OTL, not having to deal with the Dutch feeding on their empire nor fighting with Spain for independence, they would probably even expand in Indonesia and South Africa.
- The Dutch will be weaker, their presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans would be negligible compared with OTL, they could get some colonies in the Caribbean from the Spanish, and some ports in India and Indonesia, but their empire will not be as impressive as OTL, they could expand more into North America though. Overall the Dutch will be weaker in Europe too, but not enough to lose their independence, though maybe enough to lose the totality of Flanders something that would be quite good for Antwerp.
- The English/British will probably be more focused on North America too, even if they disregard their alliance with Portugal the Portuguese can defend themselves.
- Spain will be more attacked on their colonies and their Navy will be weaker than OTL, but at least they wont need to fight the Portuguese rebellion in 1640, maybe without Portugal they will find more success in policies like the "Unión de Armas", the fact that the Dutch are weaker is also a plus for Spain.
- I don't think much change for Austria, France or anyone else, well, except for Morocco, Portugal could still invade them from time to time.

About the succession, it must be said that the matter would need to be solved in 1685 at the death of Philip V, I can't see the legal basis for the French to intervene other than just opportunism without a legal claim, meanwhile the Austrian claim is quite obvious. At this time if Austria is embroiled on another war with the turks they could choose to not intervene.

From the Iberian perspective Milan is almost impossible to defend, and the Netherlands are possible, but costly, Naples and the Isles on the other hand are quite defensible for a kingdom strong in Naval Power. In a scenario where France and/or Austria decide that they are willing to go to war the Iberian Royal Couple should leave Milan and the Netherlands and focus only in preserving the crown of Aragon, in other words, Naples and Sicily. Taking French possessions in America is also another viable strategy against France, they could keep those colonies in exchange for the European territories lost, and another strategy could be to force England to intervene by threatening to give the Netherlands to France. Meanwhile Austria is always finding itself at war with the Ottomans, so if the war drags on they probably will need to divert their focus, Portugal could even offer an alliance against the Ottomans to avoid war completely, a marriage between some Avis princess and the Habsburg accompanied with a big dowry could be arranged as a way to seal the deal.
 

Janprimus

Diego said:
Ok, but based on what claims? Do you mean the same claims used in the Italian Wars?
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Not (only) those, more the one used IOTL during the War of the Spanish Succession. And given the fact, that France is the most powerful claimant, even when Austria might have a better claim, France will me able to claim the bigger price.
 

Diego

Janprimus said:
Not (only) those, more the one used IOTL during the War of the Spanish Succession. And given the fact, that France is the most powerful claimant, even when Austria might have a better claim, France will me able to claim the bigger price.
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Correct me if I am wrong, but IOTL their claim was based on the rights of the wife of Louis XIV. Since we don't know yet the family tree of the Spanish Royal Family, but we know that the only surviving sister of the last king was married to the Portuguese king I don't think that they can use the same claim as OTL.
 

isabella

Diego said:
Correct me if I am wrong, but IOTL their claim was based on the rights of the wife of Louis XIV. Since we don't know yet the family tree of the Spanish Royal Family, but we know that the only surviving sister of the last king was married to the Portuguese king I don't think that they can use the same claim as OTL.
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Exactly. Austria would get back Milan as that was given to Philip II in male line only and once that line got extinct the fief would be vacant and the Emperor free to asssing it to whatever he wanted
 

Janprimus

isabella said:
Exactly. Austria would get back Milan as that was given to Philip II in male line only and once that line got extinct the fief would be vacant and the Emperor free to asssing it to whatever he wanted
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IMHO given the fact that ITTL like IOTL France and Spain are the two premier Catholic powers, it’s not wrong to assume that the Spanish Habsburgs would have married into the house of France (whether this is Valois or Bourbon), just like how ITTL there also would have been married with their Austrian cousins. Even ITTL this would have had repercussions.
I agree the duchy of Milan would been a reverted Imperial fief, but I doubt it would stay with that.
France even with a weaker claim, would have the military might to back it up. Austria even with a weaker claim would have to be content with Milan and the Southern Netherlands (since no one wants these to go to France).
ITTL the position of the Sea Powers (England/Great Britain and the Dutch Republic) will also be interesting, since they will not be happy about a merger between the Spanish and Portuguese colonial empires, which for them might be as bad as union between Spain & Austria. Mind you not every bit lost should and would go to them, France could also get some colonies.
 
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ghappy1000

Wouldn't the surviving Portuguese House of Aviz mean that the Spanish royals will have more spouses to marry as equal and acceptable royal ruling house spouses and wouldn't this result in Spain avoiding the Spanish Succession War through more fresh blood in the Spanish succession?
 

isabella

Janprimus said:
IMHO given the fact that ITTL like IOTL France and Spain are the two premier Catholic powers, it’s not wrong to assume that the Spanish Habsburgs would have married into the house of France (whether this is Valois or Bourbon), just like how ITTL there also would have been married with their Austrian cousins. Even ITTL this would have had repercussions.
I agree the duchy of Milan would been a reverted Imperial fief, but I doubt it would stay with that.
France even with a weaker claim, would have the military might to back it up. Austria even with a weaker claim would have to be content with Milan and the Southern Netherlands (since no one wants these to go to France).
ITTL the position of the Sea Powers (England/Great Britain and the Dutch Republic) will also be interesting, since they will not be happy about a merger between the Spanish and Portuguese colonial empires, which for them might be as bad as union between Spain & Austria. Mind you not every bit lost should and would go to them, France could also get some colonies.
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Unless you get something like the case of Louis XIV’s wife Marie Therese, you can be sure who any Spanish princess who married in France would have to renounce to ALL her rights to Spain and its possessions. Plus in OTL the negotiations for a partition of the Spanish Empire started only after Maria Antonia‘s death meaning who she or her mother would likely have been able to inherit the whole Empire without too many troubles
 

isabella

ghappy1000 said:
Wouldn't the surviving Portuguese House of Aviz mean that the Spanish royals will have more spouses to marry as equal and acceptable royal ruling house spouses and wouldn't this result in Spain avoiding the Spanish Succession War through more fresh blood in the Spanish succession?
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Not really as Avis were highly inbreed and their bloodline was pretty much the same of their Spanish cousins
 

Janprimus

ghappy1000 said:
Wouldn't the surviving Portuguese House of Aviz mean that the Spanish royals will have more spouses to marry as equal and acceptable royal ruling house spouses and wouldn't this result in Spain avoiding the Spanish Succession War through more fresh blood in the Spanish succession?
Click to expand...
I’d argue, the house of Aviz will like the Austrian Habsburgs go behind first choice France, but the Portuguese cousins will be in the same tier as the Austrian cousins, not sure this will be much better for the degree of inbreeding though.
In a similar way, surviving Polish Jagiellons would have helped the Austrian Habsburgs, but they were also already rather closely related by that point.
 
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isabella

Janprimus said:
I’d argue, the house of Aviz will like the Austrian Habsburgs go behind first choice France, but the Portuguese cousins will be in the same tier as the Austrian cousins, not sure this will be much better for the degree of inbreeding though.
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In OTL France was NEVER the first choice for marriages for the Spanish Habsburgs… and all the weddings between them were strongly tied to peace treaties
 

Janprimus

isabella said:
In OTL France was NEVER the first choice for marriages for the Spanish Habsburgs… and all the weddings between them were strongly tied to peace treaties
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Given that they were the two dominant Catholic powers, they were stuck with each other.
On better terms, for Spain, were of course matches with Archduchesses from the (junior) Austrian Habsburg branch and ITTL Portuguese Infantas from the (junior*) house of Aviz.

As for marriages, senior Spanish infantas often did end up in France, younger ones are more likely to end up in Vienna and ITTL Lissabon. Maybe due to politics and peace treaties.

(*= more to denote a standing equal to the Austrian Habsburgs)
 
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Diego

@isabella since Sebastian married Margareth of Valois ITTL what spouse you think that Henry IV would choose? I was thinking about marrying him to Anna Marie of the Palatinate and later after her death to his OTL wife Maria de Medici.
 

Janprimus

OTOH even when closely related to the Spanish and thus also the Austrian Habsburgs, a surviving house of Aviz will have consequences. A Portuguese Infanta or Infanta could at times take the place of an OTL Austrian archduchess or archduke. OTOH they two can intermarry, both at times could also serve as a Spanish proxy.
Moreover both at times must now occasionally look for spouses at the tier of Savoy, Bavaria, Lorraine, this could minimally bring a bit of fresh blood to the gene pool. Since they would often marry younger Princesses, Archduchesses and Infantas, sometimes from 2nd or 3rd marriages, which often were conducted with members of somewhat less prestigious houses, especially when earlier marriages had already produced heir(-s).
 
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