WI: the goths settle in Thrace during the crisis of the third century

[Collondi]

In 251, after killing the Roman emperor in battle and winning a decisive victory at abritus, king Cniva teams up with Priscus to establish an independent state in Thrace, Dacia, and possibly Moesia, where goths, vandals, and other tribes across the Danube could settle.

How would this new barbarian state affect Rome? How long would it realistically have been able to survive? Could it have triggered an early fall of rome? To me this concept is interesting and I might do a TL on it, but I want to hear some opinions on how plausible it is and what might happen first.

 

[Reyne]

The Empire is going on overdrive if the barbarians start moving so close to Constantinople en mass. If the Bulgarians weren't able to destroy a weak Byzantine Empire and eventually were reconquered, these people's are being exterminated. It could prolong Rome's lease on life if so many barbarian people's are destroyed.

 

[Collondi]

The Empire is going on overdrive if the barbarians start moving so close to Constantinople en mass. If the Bulgarians weren't able to destroy a weak Byzantine Empire and eventually were reconquered, these people's are being exterminated. It could prolong Rome's lease on life if so many barbarian people's are destroyed.

Constantinople is still called Byzantium at this point, and it isn’t nearly as important or defended as it would eventually be.

I think the Romans would be too busy trying to fight Shapaur to focus on the goths, since Egypt and Syria were much more important than Thrace. And remember that we’re dealing with a POD that takes place during the crisis of the third century. Between Persia, other barbarian invasions, usurping generals, and the myriad other problems Rome had to deal with, I think the goths have a pretty good shot at maintaining a Thracian kingdom.

 

[Reyne]

Constantinople is still called Byzantium at this point, and it isn’t nearly as important or defended as it would eventually be.

I think the Romans would be too busy trying to fight Shapaur to focus on the goths, since Egypt and Syria were much more important than Thrace. And remember that we’re dealing with a POD that takes place during the crisis of the third century. Between Persia, other barbarian invasions, usurping generals, and the myriad other problems Rome had to deal with, I think the goths have a pretty good shot at maintaining a Thracian kingdom.

Constantinople itself isn't important but it's location is - it controls the Sea of Marmara and it's close to the Hellespoint - which is absolutely crucial in keeping the Roman Empire together. No roman emperor is accepting such a large loss of land, especially if it cuts off the connection between the Empires European and Asian parts. If Aurelian still rises, they're dying.

 

[Collondi]

Constantinople itself isn't important but it's location is - it controls the Sea of Marmara and it's close to the Hellespoint - which is absolutely crucial in keeping the Roman Empire together. No roman emperor is accepting such a large loss of land, especially if it cuts off the connection between the Empires European and Asian parts. If Aurelian still rises, they're dying.

I think you’re right, and if rome ever recovered it would be over for the goths. But the goths having greater control over the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara would give their navy an advantage. It would make it easier to control the Aegean Sea and pillage/conquer greece. In the worst case scenario it could lead to gothic pirates attacking and pillaging Italy, and cutting off grain shipments from North Africa.

So one of two things would happen. Either Rome still recovers, and Aurelian or some other emperor conquers the goths and the other breakaway states, or the pressure ends up being too much for Rome and the empire falls earlier. I’m not sure which is more likely ITTL.

 

[Reyne]

I think you’re right, and if rome ever recovered it would be over for the goths. But the goths having greater control over the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara would give their navy an advantage. It would make it easier to control the Aegean Sea and pillage/conquer greece. In the worst case scenario it could lead to gothic pirates attacking and pillaging Italy, and cutting off grain shipments from North Africa.

So one of two things would happen. Either Rome still recovers, and Aurelian or some other emperor conquers the goths and the other breakaway states, or the pressure ends up being too much for Rome and the empire falls earlier. I’m not sure which is more likely ITTL.

That's exactly it tho - would the goths be able to build a navy quick enough and survive Roman pressure enough to get to that point? I highly doubt it. The moment the Goths take so much land, that is, almost the whole of the Balkans, they become public enemy number one, plus, they're in a not-depopulated Balkans. They'll have to keep the natives down all the while fighting the Romans themselves. It's easier for the Romans to recover than for the Goths to build such a large empire on Roman corpses.

 

[Collondi]

That's exactly it tho - would the goths be able to build a navy quick enough and survive Roman pressure enough to get to that point? I highly doubt it. The moment the Goths take so much land, that is, almost the whole of the Balkans, they become public enemy number one, plus, they're in a not-depopulated Balkans. They'll have to keep the natives down all the while fighting the Romans themselves. It's easier for the Romans to recover than for the Goths to build such a large empire on Roman corpses.

OTL the goths did take over the Aegean Sea in the late 260’s, and in the 250’s they took over the Black Sea, which would be practically uncontested ITTL. It’s not like surpassing the Roman navy would be a particularly daunting task, given how close they came OTL. Once the Aegean is secured Italy is just a few naval battles away. Once Rome is cut off from North Africa, and assuming Gaul and Iberia split off the same way, Rome would be left with just Italy and Illyria. At that point, perhaps they ally with a German tribe like the Alemanni and march onto Rome.

Now that scenario has dozens of ifs, asterisks, and caveats, and I’m not going into all of it, but I don’t think it’s that implausible.

As for the native thracians, there were Romans who fought for the goths OTL, but I agree it would likely be a massive problem for them.