WI: The February revolution fails narrowly, and the Tsar makes peace with Germany in March/Apr 1917?

[Rufus]

Is something like that possible? Let‘s say the February revolution fails, and Nicholas II retains power by the skin of his teeth, but there is still unrest in the country. Could he then decide to try make peace with the Germans, focusing on his internal enemies to keep the crown, even if it costs him some territory?

What kind of terms could he expect from the Germans at this point in time? Maybe something like the Soviet interwar borders, meaning he looses Finland, the Baltics, Poland and Bessarabia? I guess the Russians would try to coordinate with France and Britain, but what if they want to continue the war? Would Nicholas be willing to make a seperate peace?

I don‘t think i‘ve seen a scenario where Nicholas retains power after WW1, especially after a defeat, though i assume he would have no choice but to enact some domestic reforms anyway.

How does the war in the west look like when Russia is out of the picture a year earlier than OTL?

Or is Nicholas‘ fall inevitable?

 

[Historyman 14]

Nicky was as stubborn as Charles I of England: He find a way to screw himself, and the Russian Monarchy. The Socialists and Liberals will take action.

Heck, no OTL February Revolution would screw the Russians even more. The February Revolution actually in many way restored Russian morale for a little while. (Till all that died with the Kerensky Offensive screw up. ) Without it, there the slow depression of the decline of the Russian Empire with little victories to show for itself carry on.

At some point in 1917, the Duma are going to kick the Tsar and the Monarchy out, and most everyone from the common man to the Army will support them. There would have been another spark, another strike another riot. By this point, almost ALL of Russia has lost faith in the Tsar and the House of Romanov, seeing them as the source of Russia's woes. The apex of the issue between the burgious aristocracy and the common Russian. It does not help you have Rasputin's death had made Alexandra Feodorovna even more withdraw and even more hated with the common people. Did I mention Nicky was a idiot?

Heck, it is hard not to have it take place. OTL, it just...happened.

However, if Nicky does have one good idea in his head and that is to make peace with Germany (Which would likely be what ends him), then the Central Powers have just won the Great War.

 

[Mackus]

Is something like that possible?

Yes. Several of his loyal generals were already empowered with authority of martial law in major cities.
But Nicholas was convinced by Guchkov and Alexeyev that everything was already lost.

Russia without revolution could hold out longer than OTL, since army began to disintegrate only after he abdicated, and completely collapsed only after Bolsheviks disbanded it.

I cannot see Germans taking anything that they weren't already occupying (Poland, Lithuania, Volhynia, Livonia). But to convince tsar to give up on the war, he needs to be convinced to give up on Entente. Perhaps show him British had hand in attempt to overthrow him. Not even real evidence, something suspicious would suffice, like British ambassador meeting with Guchkov just before latter was trying to persuade him to abdicate.
Whatever his ultimate reasons to negotiate peace, I can imagine negotiations with Karl of Austria who was strong proponent of peace, and only one who argued for something resembling white peace, resulting in Russia dropping out of war.

Nicky was as stubborn as Charles I of England

Charles I was willing to execute his own allies to placate his enemies. Hardly stubborn, in fact, overeager to please.

 

[Court Jester]

Hardly stubborn, in fact, overeager to please.

Just like Nicky. His fall was inevitable, sworn to autocratic rule but utterly unable to actually carry it out.

 

[twistedirregular]

What if Nicholas II abdicated and Grand Duke Nikolai became the Tsar?

 

[mcdnab]

Nikolai wasn't the heir - - Russian Succession 1917 - Alexei (son of the Emperor), Mikhail (brother of the Emperor), Kyril (cousin of the Emperor), Boris (cousin of the Emperor), Andrew (cousin of the Emperor), Paul (uncle of the Emperor), Dimitri (cousin of the Emperor) - after him comes the Constantinovich branch - John/Ivan, Vsevelod, Gavril, Constantine, Igor, George, Dmitri - then you get Grand Duke Nicholas - he was 16th in line to the throne a the time

 

[GiantMonkeyMan]

I'm just going to reproduce a passage from China Mieville's 'October' which is written in a narrative style but nonetheless directly quotes the individuals involved, specifically about the response of the Tsar to the events immediately prior to the February revolution.

Rodzianko telegraphed the tsar.
'The situation is serious.' His warning sped along the wires by the railway lines, across the hard countryside to Mogilev. 'There is anarchy in the capital. The government is paralysed. It is necessary immediately to entrust a person who enjoys the confidence of the country with the formation of a new government. Any delay is equivalent to death. I pray God that in this hour responsibility will not fall upon the sovereign.'
Nicholas did not reply.
The next morning Rodzianko tried again. 'The situation is growing worse. Measures must be adopted immediately, because tomorrow will be too late. The last hour has come when the fate of the fatherland and the dynasty is being decided.'
At the High Command headquarters, Count Vladimir Frederiks, Nicholas' imperial household minister, waited politely whilst his master read the message unspooling from the machine. 'That fat Rodzianko has written me some nonsense,' the tsar said at last, 'to which I will not even reply.'​

 

[MichaelWest]

And this is a needle I am trying to thread, in working on the scenario of a non-belligerent Britain, to get as close to a status quo antebellum peace, salvaging the Russian is the trickiest. Russia gets more supplies but faces more German and a far better Austrian threat, they lose ground slightly faster in a more defensive war of attrition, big offensives being more loss than gain, 1915 sees all the gains of 1916, maybe more, so by 1916 they face much of the problem imposed by 1917, faltering morale, filing finances, unreliable manpower, growing discontent at home, a France that cannot continue to support them even with British largesse. At least here Wilhelm holds a slightly better grip on things, the war is being run by Generals but no actual dictatorship, he is in Berlin with the war's focus in the East so looks more in control as well as being better abreast of the home front. My trick is to get Nicholas to concded defeat and pursue a separate peace, it will be humiliating, the Baltics to Germany, Poland under a Hapsburg, Finland in revolt, Bessarabia promised to Romania, the Ukraine being slowly consumed by A-H and German offensives, France imploring yet another push as it waits out the time when Germany can turn back West, the British losing faith but pouring in what they can to keep France from falling and Russia from bowing out. This is my best case, a last personal telegram from Wilhelm offering peace, some territorial loses, a huge indemnity, arms limitations, sweetheart trade deals, a chance to end it so France can be vanquished. Getting Nicholas to make the decision is far harder than crafting the stage.

 

[Max Sinister]

@GiantMonkeyMan: I once (long ago) read what Trotsky wrote about the revolution, but that is...

 

[GiantMonkeyMan]

@GiantMonkeyMan: I once (long ago) read what Trotsky wrote about the revolution, but that is...

He gives a really good comprehensive look and is far more detached and clinical than most people give him credit for but because of his, obvious, personal involvement there's some underlying biases. One thing that he is correct about is his damning assessment of the tsarist government and its inability and unwillingness to deal with domestic pressures due to its weakness and timidity, and the utter lethargy of Nicholas' rule.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

If the Tsar survives, that would suggest a stronger “White” (for want of a better term) faction, no?

In that scenario, would making a hasty peace with the Germans not make Nicholas’ position weaker with his supporters? They’ve just killed scores of their own countrymen to keep the God-Anointed Ruler on his throne and fight the good fight against the Huns invading sacred Mother Russia and he... surrenders?

 

[Rufus]

If the Tsar survives, that would suggest a stronger “White” (for want of a better term) faction, no?

In that scenario, would making a hasty peace with the Germans not make Nicholas’ position weaker with his supporters? They’ve just killed scores of their own countrymen to keep the God-Anointed Ruler on his throne and fight the good fight against the Huns invading sacred Mother Russia and he... surrenders?

I agree, it‘s hard to imagine. The question is if there could be a scenario where there is enough internal unrest in Russia to convince Nicholas that he may have to make peace with the Germans, allowing him to recall loyal troops from the front to put down internal rebellions, but not so much unrest that the whole country collapses utterly, as eventually happened in OTL.

I guess it also depends on the kinds of demands the Germans would make. He obviously could never agree to a Brest-Litovsk like peace, which would be the end of him. But could he survive the loss of Poland and the Baltics?

 

[twistedirregular]

I agree, it‘s hard to imagine. The question is if there could be a scenario where there is enough internal unrest in Russia to convince Nicholas that he may have to make peace with the Germans, allowing him to recall loyal troops from the front to put down internal rebellions, but not so much unrest that the whole country collapses utterly, as eventually happened in OTL.

I guess it also depends on the kinds of demands the Germans would make. He obviously could never agree to a Brest-Litovsk like peace, which would be the end of him. But could he survive the loss of Poland and the Baltics?

Weren't front-line troops becoming increasingly radicalized at that time?

Poland and the Baltics can be spared but he may not have a choice in relinquishing them.

 

[Historyman 14]

If the Tsar survives, that would suggest a stronger “White” (for want of a better term) faction, no?

In that scenario, would making a hasty peace with the Germans not make Nicholas’ position weaker with his supporters? They’ve just killed scores of their own countrymen to keep the God-Anointed Ruler on his throne and fight the good fight against the Huns invading sacred Mother Russia and he... surrenders?

Not really. The Whites would kick Nicky out whenever they can. His popularity and support was going end hill as soon as he became Tsar, being seen as a weak leader, a idiot, and a puppet to Rasputin.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Weren't front-line troops becoming increasingly radicalized at that time?

Poland and the Baltics can be spared but he may not have a choice in relinquishing them.

Well in OTL they were and that’s why the February and October revolutions went the way they did.

One assumes for the OP’s TL to go the way he describes it, there is either less radicalisation or it’s better controlled?

Not really. The Whites would kick Nicky out whenever they can. His popularity and support was going end hill as soon as he became Tsar, being seen as a weak leader, a idiot, and a puppet to Rasputin.

So, the Tsar-loyalist faction prevails in February, just to throw the Tsar under the bus? Doesn’t seem likely, IMO. Anyway, the peasantry might see Nicholas like that, but the figures that would need to succeed here - the generals, the ennobled politicians, the diplomats - see Nicholas as an almost sacred figure.

 

[Historyman 14]

So, the Tsar-loyalist faction prevails in February, just to throw the Tsar under the bus? Doesn’t seem likely, IMO. Anyway, the peasantry might see Nicholas like that, but the figures that would need to succeed here - the generals, the ennobled politicians, the diplomats - see Nicholas as an almost sacred figure.

Anyone could be better then Nicky at this point. He has many enemies and few friends at this point. This is the same man who made himself the commander in chief, and remove the far more popular and better commander, his father's cousin. The same man who had competent ministers and officials dismissed and replaced by worthless nominees of Rasputin. He has isolation himself from pretty much everyone around him. Conservatives plotted Nicholas’s deposition to save the monarchy.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Anyone could be better then Nicky at this point. He has many enemies and few friends at this point. This is the same man who made himself the commander in chief, and remove the far more popular and better commander, his father's cousin. The same man who had competent ministers and officials dismissed and replaced by worthless nominees of Rasputin. He has isolation himself from pretty much everyone around him. Conservatives plotted Nicholas’s deposition to save the monarchy.

I’m well aware of Nicholas’ many faults, but to bang the OTL drum of what he was doesn’t make the OP’s TL very likely, does it?

Anyway, there were many people in Russia that knew these faults as well as we, yet still fought and died to retain the Tsar on the throne.

The conservative plots you mention came later, after the October revolutions, yet didn’t amount to much due to lack of support.

 

[mcdnab]

Nicholas' problems were - he was completely authoritarian - in that he believed in his coronation oath - so his overriding aim was to preserve the Russian autocracy as handed to him by his father - he considered the 1905 constitution as a betrayal of his oath and deeply regretted it and blamed those who convinced him the changes were necessary - it made it impossible for him to push reform forward to preserve the monarchy.
1905 had addressed some issues and Russia's economic growth, an increase in domestic stability - gave the elite a false sense of security - even revolutionaries abroad considered the cause lost as Nicholas celebrated the tercentenary of the dynasty in 1913.
War - Russia was completely unprepared for modern warfare - though to be fair so were most of the belligerents. Initial success actually improved the position of the crown - however putting himself in direct control and abandoning the capital to his wife was a major error - he only learnt stuff second hand from his wife's letters and believed no-one else, he failed to listen to warnings from the rest of his family including his mother and worse of all every military failure was now directly blamed on the Emperor.
The only people who really could act to save the monarchy at least in the short-term were his family but they were largely hidebound by their personal loyalty to the Emperor - it was their failure to act that really killed the dynasty in the eyes of those who could usually have been expected to support it.
It was an open secret in Petrograd that several members of the family were critical of the situation - but nothing happened - by the New Year of 1917 the situation was quite frankly lost.

Short-term Nicholas might have saved his family if he'd abdicated in favour of his son (much harder to blame a child for domestic failures) as the family expected at the time - but he acted as a father instead of a monarch.

Personally Nicholas couldn't have stemmed the tide without major changes in his personality and war has to be avoided.

Just to add - on the war and a separate peace with Germany - no chance of Nicholas II doing that - he considered himself honour-bound by his agreements with his allies (France and Britain), one of his biggest reliefs about Lvov, Kerensky and the provisional government that replaced him was their commitment to continuing the war (which of course was the nail in their own coffin).

 

[Mackus]

So, the Tsar-loyalist faction prevails in February, just to throw the Tsar under the bus? Doesn’t seem likely, IMO. Anyway, the peasantry might see Nicholas like that, but the figures that would need to succeed here - the generals, the ennobled politicians, the diplomats - see Nicholas as an almost sacred figure.

You got it in reverse. A lot of his own generals and ministers wanted him gone, since they wanted to pin entire blame on him for what was collective effort of entire establishment (no-one rules alone. not even tsar), but ordinary people liked him well enough, and blamed his ministers and generals for failures of government. This is oldest cliche in history: "king is saintly and good, he just has bad and selfish ministers".

Considering how quickly conspirators who removed tsar were kicked out of power, I'd say they failed. Among right wing they were tainted for betraying tsar, among left wing they were tainted for working for him in the first place. So after Octobrists threw tsar under the bus, they were themselves thrown under bus by Kadets. Who in turn get thrown under bus by Social Revolutionaries, who after learning nothing from events of last year, thrown Kornilov under bus for good measure only to be overthrown by Bolsheviks.

 

[Cook]

Is something like that possible? Let‘s say the February revolution fails, and Nicholas II retains power by the skin of his teeth, but there is still unrest in the country. Could he then decide to try make peace with the Germans, focusing on his internal enemies to keep the crown, even if it costs him some territory?

If the revolution had failed in February and the Tsar then tried to make peace with the Germans, the only result would have been another revolution which would have succeeded.

The February revolution occurred because most of the Russian people were incensed by the incompetent way in which the Tsar and his cabinet were conducting the war, and rumours abounded of betrayal by members of the Royal family; many people pointed out that the Tsarina was German and accused her of being a German agent. (In fact Alexandra was, if anything, more English than German, being the favouring granddaughter of Queen Victoria, and Nicolas and Alexandra spoke to each other in English, never German, but such details were irrelevant.) If Nicolas had tried to make peace, particularly a peace that conceded territory to the Kaiser, then the people’s deepest suspicions would have been seen to be confirmed – the Tsar would be seen as a traitor to the Russian people and nothing would have saved him.