A Possible Scenario
How about this?
1607. While on his first voyage to the East Indies with the Dutch East India Company, natives of the Banda Islands in the Malay Archipelago killed the captain and 50 men in Jan Pierterzoon Coen's crew. Coen is wounded, but he makes it back home and continues with the company. The incident leaves Coen with a lasting dislike of the East Indies.
1612. Coen rises to chief merchant.
1614. Coen becomes director general of the company's operations in Asia. However, because of his abiding dislike for the East Indies, Coen emphasizes that a transitional port-of-call needs to be established between Europe and Asia. He tries to avoid dealing with the East Indies as much, opting to first establish the foundation on which to base the East Indian trade.
1618. A voyage personally led by Jan Coen is blown off course. Instead of landing exactly on the Cape of Good Hope, the five ships are pushed into the Indian Ocean. They turn around and land in OTL’s Durban. They establish a small fort/trading post which they name “Hoorn,” after Coen’s place of birth.
1621. The Dutch struggle for independence is reinvigorated following a near 20-year-long truce. The war goes worse in this ATL. Funding is cut from the Dutch West India Company. It’s remnants are incorporated into the Dutch East India Company. The small population of the Dutch colony in America, called New Netherland, are divided as to what to do without Dutch backing. In the end, about half the 500 person population stay in place, while the other half, who attempt to return to the Netherlands, are instead forced to travel to Zuid-Afrika.
1625. Hoorn, Zuid-Afrika, now has a population numbering about 900. Comprised mostly of farmers and merchants, the small garrison of Dutch soldiers first comes into hostile contact with the local Zulu population.
1635. The population of Zuid-Afrika, now approaching 3,000, is in a full blown war with the Zulu population. While the Dutch settlers have by far better weapons, they are forced to feel the Zulus out, as they use unconventional tactics. A relatively large militia (formed out of several kommandos) is created to augment the Dutch soldiers. The roughly 200 soldiers go about attempting to train the 400 militiamen.
1646. By an amazing stroke of luck, a Dutch kommando, which was pursuing a roving Zulu tribe, finds gold on the banks of the Orange River, more than 100 miles from Hoorn. The kommando returns to Hoorn, unsuccessful in finding the Zulus. They report their finding to their superiors and that, in turn works its way up to the masters of the East India Company.
1648. The Dutch war for independence ends. It has gone worse than in OTL and the Dutch have lost the southern regions of their claimed nation to the Spanish. Nearly one-fifth of the population is trapped in Spanish territory. That said, many of them decide to leave, especially with the harsh treatment of the Calvinists.
1648–1700. Nearly 250,000 people from Zuid-Holland immigrate to the Dutch colony of Zuid-Afrika. By 1700, the population of Zuid-Afrika is nearly ten times that of OTL. With the settlers pouring inland, more and more gold is discovered. With the encroachment of the Dutch Boers, the Zulus are forced to move continuously northward. Several wars lead to serious losses among the Zulu population. In a series of events similar to those which befell the Native Americans at the hands of the English, the Zulus suffer a similar fate at the hands of the Dutch. Yet, the more gold they discover, the more the Dutch from the Spanish held Zuid-Holland continue to pour in. BTW, the Dutch never made a serious attempt to energize the East Indian trade that Coen originally conceived would spring from Zuid-Afrika. The English dominate trade in the East Indies.