WI the Confederates didn't fire on Fort Sumter
- Thread starter Chicxulub
- Start date
The Civil War was a powder keg waiting to explode. If it wasn't the Fort Sumter incident that set it off, it would surely have been something else. The Baltimore Riots less than two weeks later, for example, would have certainly started the war without an attack on Fort Sumter.
You also have to remember that the last of the states to secede did so due to Lincoln's call for soldiers to fight against the South. Granted this was a direct result of the attack on Fort Sumter, but Lincoln would have likely made this call at some point early in his administration anyway especially after the Baltimore Riots and similar incidents.
You also have to remember that the last of the states to secede did so due to Lincoln's call for soldiers to fight against the South. Granted this was a direct result of the attack on Fort Sumter, but Lincoln would have likely made this call at some point early in his administration anyway especially after the Baltimore Riots and similar incidents.
Not firing on the fort was a distinct possibility. Confederate Sec of State Robert Toombs had been a noted "Fire-Eater" (secessionist radical) before the war. But when Davis met with his cabinet to discuss Fort Sumter, Toombs strongly - even passionately - advised against the attack.
Toombs had also been an early favorite for President of the CSA; he withdrew his name because he mistakenly thought fellow Georgian Herschel Johnson wanted the job.
If he was President, he would not order the attack.
So what happens? The garrison was very short of food (Anderson admitted to a Confederate delegation that "We will be starved out in three more days"). If there is no attack, that's what happens.
Lincoln is not going to proclaim a state of rebellion and call for troops as in OTL. So Virginia is not going to be pushed into secession, nor Tennessee, North Carolina, or Arkansas.
There remains a bone of contention: Fort Pickens, at Pensacola Bay in Florida. Unlike Fort Sumter, Fort Pickens is outside the bay with uncontested access to the sea; the U.S. could resupply and reinforce it.
Davis felt compelled to force the issue with Fort Sumter because it sits in the mouth of the harbor of a major Confederate city.
Fort Pickens is more out of the way. It can block Pensacola Bay, but Pensacola is a minor city. The CSA can ignore it if they choose. Floridians may be annoyed, but it's not going to be the flashpoint unless someone makes it so.
Another point is that Fort Pickens is not where the CSA can get at it effectively. It's at the western end of Santa Rosa Island, with a narrow spit leading off to the east. To the west and north are the open waters of the Bay; to the south is the ocean.
So a cold blockade seems likely.
The question is how long the "sitzkrieg" lasts. The CSA will be pressing secession on the upper South, and Lincoln will be intriguing against them.
Virginia is key. OT1H, most Virginians either oppose secession or don't want the state to be a battleground. OTOH, Virginia is a slave state, with its own Fire-Eaters such as Roger Pryor. One possibility - there was a plot by some Fire-Eaters (including former Governor Wise) to seize the Navy Yard in Norfolk and the Harpers Ferry arsenal. It was pre-empted by the attack on Fort Sumter, Lincoln's proclamation, and Virginia's declaration of secession.
If no Fort Sumter attack, the plot goes forward. It would probably fail, and could turn popular feeling against the CSA; Virginia might not secede.
Last edited:
Japhy
Banned
Braxton Bragg gets to be the first southern hero of the war, and a big political intriguing boost when he opens fire on Fort Pickins out in Pensacola Harbor. Or a Former Governor of Virigina leads troops into Harper's Ferry and the Gosport Shipyard before his own damned secession convention gets around to voting.
The fact of the matter is there was enough paramilitary violence and rebellious agression against elected governments and against Federal property there is no way the powder keg doesn't eventually get lit.
The fact of the matter is there was enough paramilitary violence and rebellious agression against elected governments and against Federal property there is no way the powder keg doesn't eventually get lit.
Penny for The Guy
Banned
Virginia Doesn't Seccede
If Virginia doesn't bail on the Union, R. E. Lee stays with the US Army.
Probably so do others.
Southron leaders, seeing large gaps in territory, do not press the issue. Lincoln, ever the Fox, refers to the CSA as a "Regional Governor's Conference", Southron Senators and Congressmen find their seats awaiting their return.
Meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing quite underground, which lead to a compromise. The institution of slavery will not be interfered with where already established. Nor will it be extended to newer Territories or States on the Continent (which leaves room for Cuba and Puerto Rico later on). Abolitionists will be forbidden from agitating to free slaves, nor will fugitive slave laws be enforced (this is informally understood). The tariff issue is resolved with Northern and Southern Senators actually agreeing to compromise on a deal which is surprisingly fair to all.
Tentatively, step by step, the US tiptoes way from a Civil War Between The States.
World markets gradually turn away from American cotton, and slavery becomes ever more unprofitable. Abolitionists in the North raise funds to buy slaves from the South and resettle them in the Western Territories. Much of this money comes from German immigrants who had experienced serfdom in their homelands.
By 1900, there are no slaves, and few free Negroes in the South, the Western Territories having become States, with most of the resettled former slaves now citizens with the ballot, which attracted more settlement by freedmen.
In 1960, after serving in the military for a century, including the Spanish American War, WW1, and WW2, the National Negro Voting Rights Bill makes mandatory what had already become established practice in most States.
In 2008, General Colin Powell, Hero of the Gulf War, becomes first Negro President of the USA.
In 2063, Earth makes First Contact with aliens at Bozeman, Montana. (Why not, it's as plausible as the preceding argument?
)
If Virginia doesn't bail on the Union, R. E. Lee stays with the US Army.
Probably so do others.
Southron leaders, seeing large gaps in territory, do not press the issue. Lincoln, ever the Fox, refers to the CSA as a "Regional Governor's Conference", Southron Senators and Congressmen find their seats awaiting their return.
Meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing quite underground, which lead to a compromise. The institution of slavery will not be interfered with where already established. Nor will it be extended to newer Territories or States on the Continent (which leaves room for Cuba and Puerto Rico later on). Abolitionists will be forbidden from agitating to free slaves, nor will fugitive slave laws be enforced (this is informally understood). The tariff issue is resolved with Northern and Southern Senators actually agreeing to compromise on a deal which is surprisingly fair to all.
Tentatively, step by step, the US tiptoes way from a Civil War Between The States.
World markets gradually turn away from American cotton, and slavery becomes ever more unprofitable. Abolitionists in the North raise funds to buy slaves from the South and resettle them in the Western Territories. Much of this money comes from German immigrants who had experienced serfdom in their homelands.
By 1900, there are no slaves, and few free Negroes in the South, the Western Territories having become States, with most of the resettled former slaves now citizens with the ballot, which attracted more settlement by freedmen.
In 1960, after serving in the military for a century, including the Spanish American War, WW1, and WW2, the National Negro Voting Rights Bill makes mandatory what had already become established practice in most States.
In 2008, General Colin Powell, Hero of the Gulf War, becomes first Negro President of the USA.
In 2063, Earth makes First Contact with aliens at Bozeman, Montana. (Why not, it's as plausible as the preceding argument?
)The secession will happen no matter what, there was way too much fuel for it not to burn, the spark would probably come from one of the boarder areas. The biggest change may be that if the North attacks first, it may pressure some boarder states to fall in with the South and make Europe more sympathetic to the South, I doubt much would change though.
I tend to agree with those who say that if Fort Sumpter is not attacked, the Federal Government and Southern States who seceded might find a way to tiptoe away from war and negotiate some sort of reunion that explicitly preserves the right of Southern States to keep slavery (perhaps even a constitutional amendment) but perhaps places more limits on its expansion. This would at best be a temporary respite, however, because abolitionist sentiment in the US (and elsewhere) will only increase. Unless the Southern states eventually move toward gradual and compensated emancipation on their own, this fundamental failure and contradiction in the US Constitution will lead toward conflict before 1900.
I tried a similar TL some time ago. My question was, WI the CSA government expressly forbade firing on Sumter? Some here were of the opinion that SC Gov. Pickens was a radical, who couldn't stand the idea of that Yankee abscess out in Charleston Harbour, and probably would have fired on it sooner or later, Jeff Davis be damned.
I think the south could have learned to live with an enemy occupied Fort Pickens. After all, Key West was occupied throughout, I believe, and nobody freaked out over it.
Someone mentioned about the Baltimore riots being another possible first flashpoint, if Sumter doesn't happen. I think this would likely be butterflied; after all, if things haven't yet come to a head, why do Mass. troops march through Baltimore, on their way to DC? But if for some reason this does become the spot where the first blood is shed, does this make Maryland more likely to secede? Especially if more civilians are shot? I tend to think the state still stays loyal. But if it does go, then VA will surely follow. As for raiding the Norfolk navy yard, that too is a possibility.
I think the south could have learned to live with an enemy occupied Fort Pickens. After all, Key West was occupied throughout, I believe, and nobody freaked out over it.
Someone mentioned about the Baltimore riots being another possible first flashpoint, if Sumter doesn't happen. I think this would likely be butterflied; after all, if things haven't yet come to a head, why do Mass. troops march through Baltimore, on their way to DC? But if for some reason this does become the spot where the first blood is shed, does this make Maryland more likely to secede? Especially if more civilians are shot? I tend to think the state still stays loyal. But if it does go, then VA will surely follow. As for raiding the Norfolk navy yard, that too is a possibility.