There was plenty of intellectual capital in the conservative movement after Goldwater and anyone who thinks that without Reagan the conservative movement goes nowhere is either nuts, or (more likely on this forum) seriously underestimates the emotions and beliefs in America that Reagan tapped into to gain support. The rise of the conservative movement was both a move against the collectivist big government sentiments of the past generation, as well as the left wing counter culture movement that had rose in opposition of it. Reagan was a fabulous communicator, but he was not the master mind of the entire movement and without him, while it is plausible to think that the movement might be less successful or miss an element we perceive as important to it today, we would see some one else take his place of broadcasting the message and a different man being given the chance by Americans to show what conservatism can accomplish. It might not happen in the 80s but the Conservative movement would rise to prominence.
It is this liberal fallacy that without Reagan singing his siren song to call Americans away from liberalism, people would have stayed with it and the Republican party would be the centrist, not as left as those Democrats, we like congresses plan but it is just a little to much left, Democrat agenda rubber stamping party it was in the fifties. It gives Reagan (while I do think he played a very important role in the rise of conservatism) way to much credit, and ignores the fact that a sizable group of Americans were fed up with the Democrat's complete dominance of of the government for a generation, its liberal agenda, and the Republicans being a wet blanket party that essentially let the Democrats do what they wanted with minimal opposition.
The anti-government feelings that already existed were what propelled Reagan to the White House, and in Britain propelled Thatcher to the position of Prime Minister. This was a large tide of feeling not isolated in the USA and so with out Reagan's presence Conservatism will have a tougher time but will still become an important movement. If parts of small government philosophy can be successful in the UK, it can definitely see progress in the USA.
It is interesting to think about what it will do to his career though, he is done as a political force, and as it has been pointed out a movement showing similarity to the Tea Party will have to find another idol. I do agree that they could easily construe and ignore what was done by men like TR and Tom Jefferson, since unfortunately many Americans on all sides of the political spectrum have a poor understanding of what these men really did and believed.
