WI: The Brazilian military dictatorship "softens" earlier

[Taunay]

In 1968, the AI-5 (Institutional Act 5) made the military government that ruled Brazil since 1964 even more repressive, with the suspensions of the few remaining political rights of the population and the suspension of the habeas corpus.
In 1969, however, incumbent President Artur Costa e Silva considered revoking the AI-5, privately telling insiders that he planned to institute a decree ending it on September 7, 1969 (the Independence Day of Brazil). However destiny had other plans, as he suffered a stroke on August 31 (exactly a week before the proposed changes) and a new Junta took power, followed by the infamously repressive Emilio Médici. But WI Costa e Silva didn't suffer a stroke and revoked the AI-5 on September 1969? How would that impact the dictatorship? Could a more "soft" Brazilian dictatorship result in an earlier return to Brazilian democracy? Or would it have the opposite effect as a dictatorship that's not as repressive as OTL would have more public support?

 

[Dancing Fool]

as he suffered a stroke on August 31 (exactly a week before the proposed changes)

On economics . . .

Realistically, you’re going to have a mixed system, just a question of whether it’s an oligopoly in favor of existing powers, or more of an FDR New Deal approach which tries to grow the middle class? And since I lay it out that way, obviously you can see in a flash which direction I favor!

Now, we’re still going to have armed revolutionaries even with a growing middle class, just like the U.S. had the “weather underground” starting in 1969. The important thing is for a government not to panic and over-react. I think that’s what you’re saying, right?

Just like you’re going to have professional bank robbers. Important not to panic and take away other people’s rights.

 

[Taunay]

On economics . . .

Realistically, you’re going to have a mixed system, just a question of whether it’s an oligopoly in favor of existing powers, or more of an FDR New Deal approach which tries to grow the middle class? And since I lay it out that way, obviously you can see in a flash which direction I favor!

Now, we’re still going to have armed revolutionaries even with a growing middle class, just like the U.S. had the “weatherman underground” starting in 1969. The important thing is for a government not to panic and over-react. I think that’s what you’re saying, right?

Just like you’re going to have professional bank robbers. Important not to panic and take away other people’s rights.

Exactly, also having a more "soft" dictatorship would reduce armed resistance and instead push more oppositionists into more conciliatory rhetoric with the government

 

[Dancing Fool]

having a more "soft" dictatorship would reduce armed resistance

But the demographics of the Baby Boom generation might give an upsurge in crime, pretty much regardless of any policy you do.

* I’m not sure if Brazil had as big a post-WWII Baby Boom as the U.S. had.

 

[Taunay]

But the demographics of the Baby Boom generation might give an upsurge in crime, pretty much regardless of any policy you do.

* I’m not sure if Brazil had as big a post-WWII Baby Boom as the U.S. had.

it wasn't as big as the US. In fact, I'd say the Brazilian baby boom happened in the 1960s and 1970s

 

[Dancing Fool]

I’ll give you an example of the FBI in the United States considering going hardcore . . .

in looking for a woman who was a violent revolutionary in the “Weather Underground,” Mark Felt of the FBI considered kidnapping the baby of her sister, in order to flush her out and make her turn herself in.

You know, it probably would have worked, but—

Holy Shit, there has to be a better way!

And this was seriously enough considered to be in a file later released under the Freedom of Information Act.

Yes, that Mark Felt who gets a shit load of credit for being Woodward and Bernstein’s “Deep Throat” source on Watergate. Well, he certainly has a dark side. That’s for damn sure.

I’ll pull the page number from the serious book The Burglary, about the 1971 break-in of an FBI office.

page 493:

“Jennifer Dohrn . . . Felt suggested agents should kidnap her infant son as a way of pressuring her sister, Bernadine Dohrn . . . ”

 

[Dancing Fool]

I do want FBI agents to be able to get warrants and conduct searches. And there’s no reason a judge couldn’t provide a warrant by phone, and perhaps keep a recording of the conversation. And perhaps they could rotate among younger judges regarding who is on-call that night.

Meaning,

I want the good guys to win.