WI The Bolsheviks Lose in the Civil War?
- Thread starter Hawkeye
- Start date
Which White Army? Kolchak, Denikin? The problem with the Whites was they were internally divided, and their actions were poorly coordinated. It would have taken someone to rise as a great anti-communist leader to unite the Whites.
But assuming that all white generals simply defeated their opponents... Let's say Trotsky died in 1918 and Red Army was totally disorganized. Then, after bolsheviks' defeat, I think we would have seen another episode of Russian civil war - fight for power between white generals.
But assuming that all white generals simply defeated their opponents... Let's say Trotsky died in 1918 and Red Army was totally disorganized. Then, after bolsheviks' defeat, I think we would have seen another episode of Russian civil war - fight for power between white generals.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Yes, the problems with the Whites was they were a disorganized bunch. Not only the generals had problems wit eachother, the whites were all anti- bolsheviks. Some wanted the Monarchy to return, some wanted a democracy others a dictatorship. Also it comes to the question of foreign aid. If for exxample the whites won depending very much on France, Brittain, US and Japan they could pretty much dictate how the new Russia would look like. The last problem is breakaway regions. How many of them have been able to maintain their independence (Finalnd, Poland, Balticum, Ukriane (which, there were many), Caucasian Nations, perhaps even Cossacks and MRNC?)? And how should the new Russian state view them.
I think you'd see a similar situation to China, where the territory known as Russia was 'nominally' a nation but it would have large numbers of warlords, some of whom might even attempt to formalize their holdings as seperate nations.
If China is the example, this would mean that a Unifed Russia would probably emerge in the late 1940s, possibly with a Capital city in the Urals or some such. In any case, the warlords in place would almost certainly be as irresistable to Hitler as the Chinese warlords were to Japan.
And like Japan, the Germans are going to get stuck in a massive vietnam-like quagmire. This would probably be followed in a prolonged campaign from the Western Allies as they force their way from Normandy all the way to Ostland and Ukraine, possibly with heavy nuclear weapons usage.
On the Japanese side, I'd expect Japan simply to hold the Maritime Province and Sakhalin 'for the duration' which turns into "forever". Sakhalin has some oil as well, not enough for the IJA's needs but definitely something that gives them some breathing room.
Now the postwar situation in Europe would probably have the Western Allies at the Ukraine and in St. Petersburg, but there would still be warlords past that point, along with a largely friendly Russian State emerging--Russia has lost some land, but St. Petersburg would probably get returned to them and the Russians probably join a postwar alliance.
Hmmm...
If China is the example, this would mean that a Unifed Russia would probably emerge in the late 1940s, possibly with a Capital city in the Urals or some such. In any case, the warlords in place would almost certainly be as irresistable to Hitler as the Chinese warlords were to Japan.
And like Japan, the Germans are going to get stuck in a massive vietnam-like quagmire. This would probably be followed in a prolonged campaign from the Western Allies as they force their way from Normandy all the way to Ostland and Ukraine, possibly with heavy nuclear weapons usage.
On the Japanese side, I'd expect Japan simply to hold the Maritime Province and Sakhalin 'for the duration' which turns into "forever". Sakhalin has some oil as well, not enough for the IJA's needs but definitely something that gives them some breathing room.
Now the postwar situation in Europe would probably have the Western Allies at the Ukraine and in St. Petersburg, but there would still be warlords past that point, along with a largely friendly Russian State emerging--Russia has lost some land, but St. Petersburg would probably get returned to them and the Russians probably join a postwar alliance.
Hmmm...
Originally posted by Kneze
I think that fascist regime in Russia would have started with "reuniting of the Holy Russia" or something similar, i.e. conquest of former parts of Russian Empire: Poland, Finland, Baltic states, Ukraine (if it had been independent). Then I can see fascist Russia steering towards panslavism and the old idea of uniting all Slavs under Russian and Orthodox rule. Romanians are screwed (they are in the way), Hungarians probably too.. Greeks might have been tolerated as Orthodox. I wonder if the fascist Russia would have tried to get Istanbul - former Constantinopol. After all, in tsar's times they had an ambition to become "Third Rome". Also, Constantinopol was an important center of Orthodox Christianity.
= Constitutional Monarchy.
There were definitely White generals who didn't support a return of the monarchy.
Anyway, if the Bolsheviks lose, this causes a fundamental change in 20th century history. I don't think that Russia would ever become a superpower, especially so disunited; I agree that if the Bolsheviks were defeated, then the various Whites wouldn't exactly settle down and be happy. Also, it matters if the Tsar's family has been killed or not, yet, so POD placement is very important.
As far as the breakaway nations, I think this is nothing but good for them, since I think that with the Civil War lasting longer would impoverish the countries even more; and without the central planning of the communists
I don't see how they can industrialize nearly as quickly as OTL, even if they end the war in a similar position to the Reds.
Out of personal interest, I ask, what does this mean for Nestor Makhno? His army defeated several White Armies and, if memory serves, was only finally defeated when betrayed by the Red Army, which they had allied themselves with, trusting them more than the Whites.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Perhaps our friend Makhno could establish his anarchist dreamland in Ukraine. That would be an awesome timeline.
.I had a idea for a TL like that called Zhukov Kai-Shek
1. The July Days become a full-on revolution
2. The Tsar and his family killed by Bolsheviks
3. The revolution fails and most Bolshie leaders are killed
4. The army stages a coup blaming Kerensky and the PG for the death of the Romanovs as much as the Bolshies.
5. Kerensky flees North
6. The army's Emergency Military Government splits over what action to take next
7. The various generals start fighting each other.
8. Kerensky resurfaces in Archangel still claiming to be the legitimate government of Russia
In this TL Kerensky= Sun Yat Sen and Zhukov becomes the equivalent of Chiang Kai-Shek