WI: The battle of Gettysburg never starts, how does the rest of the campaign play out?

[Parmenion]

The battle started almost by accident, and neither Lee nor Meade planned on fighting there initially. Had the battle just never started (Heth doesn't attack or Buford doesn't defend for instince) how does the campaign end? I'm aware the confederates still lose the war, so I'm only looking at the campaign and immediate aftermath.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

The battle started almost by accident, and neither Lee nor Meade planned on fighting there initially. Had the battle just never started (Heth doesn't attack or Buford doesn't defend for instance) how does the campaign end? I'm aware the confederates still lose the war, so I'm only looking at the campaign and immediate aftermath.

It depends on where and how the Gettysburg 2.0 happens as the whole campaign depends on this battle. If Lee is still stopped then very little has changed, if Lee wins (which depends on the circumstances) then the Confederacy might be able to demoralize the Union just enough to sign a peace treaty (or UK intervenes) although with hindsight it would still be clear that in the long run the Confederacy is lost.

 

[Elfwine]

If not at Gettysburg - and unplanned or not, a sizable part of both armies was already in the general area in a way that naturally lead to what happened - it depends on who attacks whom first, I think.

No fight at Gettysburg because Heth doesn't go forward (as in even if Buford doesn't conduct his classic example of a delaying action and just pulls back, he's still going to be reporting "Confederates attacking me" to Reynolds who is still in the area with his wing) probably means something different than if Reynolds turns cautious in response to "Confederates attacking me".

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

If Gettysburg is avoided and Robert E. Lee continues to march north, he's facing a severe possibility of screwing himself (especially since Stuart won't be there for a little bit) by putting his army into a corner at the northern tip of the Cumberland Valley. To his west and north is the Appalachian Mountains and to his east is the Susquehanna River, which is a mile wide near Harrisburg. And by marching faster than Meade, he is distancing himself from his escape path, the road to Chambersburg, making it possible for Meade to cut him off. The only issue that Meade would have cutting him off however is the Blue Ridge Mountains that separate Pennsylvania's piedmont region with the Cumberland Valley and Chambersburg, which would require Meade to split his army in two, unless Lee is stupid enough to move eastward past Carlisle, at which point the Blude Ridge Mountains end and the Cumberland Valley merges with the Peidmont.

 

[daveg1967]

I have seen an interesting description of what Reynolds actual orders were. Meade didn't know where Lee's forces were and didn't have good maps of the area. Reynolds was to take his wing of the army and post it in position to force Lee to concentrate in response. There is a specific term for this that I can't recall at the moment. He was not to engage Lee. He did and his 2 corps got mauled and we have Gettysburg. Meade was trying to check Lee's advance and force a battle on advantageous terms. Gettysburg was probably the best opportunity Lee had. His army was able to concentrate faster then Meade's but Meade had the better terrain.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

How likely would it be for Lee to sack Harrisburg and retreat to Virginia, and avoid engaging the Army of the Potomac altogether?

How would this scenario affect the wider war? Its a better scenario for the Confederates since they don't fight a big battle that they lose. They still get the Army of the Potomac out of Virginia for a few months and plunder south central Pennsylvania, which were positive results they got from the OTL campaign. I think the biggest change, assuming Meade keeps the command, is that there is more pressure on Meade to fight a general engagement with Lee in Virginia later in the year.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

How likely would it be for Lee to sack Harrisburg and retreat to Virginia, and avoid engaging the Army of the Potomac altogether?

The Susquehanna River is a mile wide at Harrisburg, which is on the Eastern Bank. The only bridge across at that point was Camelback Bridge, which was wooden and would have been burned. Lee's army isn't getting across the Susquehanna.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

My thoughts:

If Gettysburg is avoided on July 1st, Lee's army will stay west of the Blue Ridge Mountains and march North towards Carlisle., where it will meet up with Stuart on July 1st. At this point, Lee will realize that he is now slightly Northeast of Meade's army instead of Northwest and at risk of possibly being cut off. Meade, will still not know exactly where Lee is and his army will probably march into the town of Gettysburg on July 1st.

Lee has three options at this point:

1. March eastwards towards Harrisburg. As I mentioned in my earlier post, that would end in disaster for Lee's army.
2. March immediately South (on what is now routes 15 and 34) and take the fight to Meade's army somewhere in between Gettysburg and Carlisle.
3. Head southwest back down the Chambersburg Pike (now route 11), which gives up two additional sub options:
- Retreat back into Virginia across the Potomac and sit on the defensive.
- Turn east at Hagerstown towards Fredrick and try to get in between Meade's army and Washington DC and force a battle on ground of his own choosing.

Personally, I think option 2 or option 3.B are the most likely.

Meade on the night of July 1st in the atl decision also has three options:

1. Continue heading north blind until he runs into Lee's army.
2. Sit at Gettysburg and do nothing until his cavalry figures out where Lee is going and then simply react to Lee's movement.
3. Take the initiative and send forces west to try and cut off the Chambersburg Pike

Personally, I think Meade would take option 2.





If Meade and Lee both take their options 2, were either going to see a atl Battle of Gettysburg, or Meade will fall back to his preplanned line around Emmittsburg, Pipe Creek and Taneytown. If Lee goes for option 3.B and Mead goes for option 2, Meade's army has less ground to cover and will probably withdrawal to Emmitsburg to defend the mountain passes, and then to Fredrick as Lee keeps moving back South, leading to a battle in Western Maryland.

 

[bguy]

If Meade and Lee both take their options 2, were either going to see a atl Battle of Gettysburg, or Meade will fall back to his preplanned line around Emmittsburg, Pipe Creek and Taneytown. \

Does Gettysburg play out any differently with Lee having his cavalry present right from the start of the battle?

 

[Parmenion]

Does Gettysburg play out any differently with Lee having his cavalry present right from the start of the battle?

I doubt it personally, Meade will have his own cavalry to check them wherever they appear, save exploiting a mass rout they wouldn't be of much use

 

[Elfwine]

Minor note: Are we looking at all Lee's cavalry being present (only three of seven brigades arrive with Stuart, one of the other four is with Ewell already), or just Stuart and those troopers?

 

[SWS]

You'd probably just see Federal probing and Confederate parrying down South Mountain and the Blue Ridge as Meade attempts to sever Lee's communications with Staunton. A pitched battle may be fought at Cashtown and Monterey Pass in early July. Lee would prefer to remain in camp at Hagerstown through August, I think, yet Federal possession of Harpers' Ferry is worrying, although Unionist solicitude for the security of Washington is well-known to the Southern commander. He was desirous of entering Loudoun County IOTL, but was much impeded by the flooding of the Shenandoah. His grand object will be to detain the Army of the Potomac on the line of the Potomac until the decisive campaigning-season of 1864. Nonetheless, the wasted condition of the country between Alexandria and Culpeper would likely render Confederate withdrawal to the Rappahannock a necessity for the winter.

 

[Mikestone8]

The Susquehanna River is a mile wide at Harrisburg, which is on the Eastern Bank. The only bridge across at that point was Camelback Bridge, which was wooden and would have been burned. Lee's army isn't getting across the Susquehanna.

But might he go *to* it?

I have a vague recollection that one aim was to destroy the railway bridge at Harrisburg in order to disrupt east=west communications.

 

[weasel_airlift]

I have a vague recollection that one aim was to destroy the railway bridge at Harrisburg in order to disrupt east=west communications.

Seems to me that if he takes his entire army to do that, then he's at risk of getting pinned up against the river.

I can't imagine that Lee had much of a supply train. I would think that he's up against a wall with regards to how long he can run rampant. Foraging will only provide so much food, and ammunition would be a serious concern that just can't be allayed without taking a Union supply train or depot.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

But might he go *o* it?

I have a vague recollection that one aim was to destroy the railway bridge at Harrisburg in order to disrupt east=west communications.

In otl, that was Staurt's job if I am not mistaken. Stuart had reached the western bank of the Susquehanna in otl before turning back to Carlisle and then riding South to Gettysburg.

I don't think Lee planned to send his whole army to Harrisburg.

 

[SWS]

In otl, that was Staurt's job if I am not mistaken. Stuart had reached the western bank of the Susquehanna in otl before turning back to Carlisle and then riding South to Gettysburg.

I don't think Lee planned to send his whole army to Harrisburg.

Ewell would have advanced on Harrisburg on June 30 if not for Meade's presence at Pipe Creek and Lee's recall order. Confederate guns would have dominated the city from the Susquehanna's western bank, if they can dislodge Couch's fortified militia from Lemoyne and Camp Hill first. Bridges can be burned, although not expediently. The Second Corps might be able to save the Cumberland Valley Railroad Bridge's lower wagon deck. But it might just result in another disappointment as at Wrightsville.