WI the Archduke was killed by...

Gryphon

Gryphon

an Italian?

Say, a young Italian (we'll call huim Bruno) is just a bit touched in the head. Bruno is upset about the Austrians doing something or other, and goes to Sarajevo and shoots the Archduke just before Principe could do the job.

What happens to the world, since A-H's main trigger for the war on Serbia lost?

Thoughts? Questions? Comments? Ideas? I'm looking for anything at the moment.
 

Roberto

I doubt A-H would be as willing to go to war against Italy, so the war (at this point it's pretty much inevitable) is delayed a bit. Let's say that A-H does go to war, though. I'm not sure Germany would join. They don't have much of an incentive (Russia in OTL). Italy, however, has made enemies of the OE as well. We'll probably see a third Balkan War, with the Balkan countries squabbling again. France might actually join the A-H/OE side. Unbelievable as it sounds, this isn't ASB. France didn't have it in its best interests to have a strong Serbia in the Balkans. In fact, it almost joined the OE in the Balkan Wars. So Italy would probably get involved in the Balkan mess supporting Serbia (it'd be a thorn in the side of A-H and OE). Do the math, and you'd have France supporting A-H and OE, but probably not openly declaring war.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
I'd say it could evolve to a war between Austria- Hungary and Italy. It could spread to other nations, but I don't think nations like France, Germany, UK or Russia would get involved, at least not immidiately. Ottoman Empire might see it as achance of atking the Dodecanese, but so might the greeks, I guess it's more a matter of who react first.
 

rcduggan

at this point Austria and or Germany were still allied to Italy, so I don't think they would be very willing to turn on their ally and attack Italy,.... they might just demand an apology or something minor.
 

Rockingham

Banned
AHF said:
France didn't have it in its best interests to have a strong Serbia in the Balkans. In fact, it almost joined the OE in the Balkan Wars..
Click to expand...

Ummm...mind explaining why:confused:. It would be suicide in its relations with Russia.
 

stevep

rcduggan said:
at this point Austria and or Germany were still allied to Italy, so I don't think they would be very willing to turn on their ally and attack Italy,.... they might just demand an apology or something minor.
Click to expand...

I would agree. In OTL the fact that GP was a Serbian extremists who the Austrians argued had been backed by the Serbian state meant it was a matter between the two states. Also Austrian was an opponent of Serbia and wanted to weaken it and remove the threat it was seen to pose to the Austrian position in the Balkans.

In the case of Italy, while there are differences between it and Austria they are still technically allies and Austria and Germany want to keep it as an ally, or at least non-hostile power in the alliance system dominating Europe. Therefore its in their interests to accept that this was just the act of a lone lunatic. Which is what the Italian government will no doubt claim, as it will want to avoid both a possible conflict and the deep embarrassment any suggestion of government involvement in the assassination would mean.

If, unlikely as it is any conflict did occur it would probably just be a war between Austria and Italy. I doubt if Germany would intervene as that would very likely bring France and Russia in on the Italian side.

Steve
 
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