WI: the 468 Roman invasion of the Vandal Kingom was successful?

[Deleted member 97083]

In 468, Emperor Leo I of the Eastern Roman Empire launched a truly massive expedition to reconquer Carthage from the Vandals. Supposedly, 110,000 troops and 1,113 ships were involved; although the numbers could have been exaggerated, the Romans certainly spared no expense, and the invasion force was larger than the one Scipio commanded at the Battle of Zama. But King Gaiseric of the Vandals managed to destroy the fleet through trickery. He asked Basiliscus and his fleet to stand aside for five days so the Vandals could draw up a peace. Somehow, the Romans believed him. After assembling his own fleet, Gaiseric set fire to most of the Roman ships in the night. Basiliscus was humiliated, the invasion was averted, and the fate of the western empire sealed by the terribly anticlimactic Battle of Cap Bon.

What if the Romans weren't so foolish as to believe Gaiseric, and they attacked immediately? Most likely, with the numerical superiority they had, and the Vandals not having assembled their fleet yet, it would be a decisive Roman victory, and a swift conquest of the Vandal Kingdom.

But what happens after that? Does the Africa province go back to the Western Roman Empire, or fall into the Eastern sphere of influence? What does Basiliscus do with his newfound popularity? What happens to the surviving Vandals?

Does Italy still ultimately fall to Odoacer, or could the Western Empire remain independent from a restored power base in Carthage?

 

[mrmandias]

Interesting. It does seem like reconquest would be likely.

 

[Faeelin]

I wonder if 468 is too late. Maybe it ends up as a Byzantine appenage earlier?

 

[Deleted member 97083]

I wonder if 468 is too late. Maybe it ends up as a Byzantine appenage earlier?

It might be too late for Italy, but Carthage is pretty safe from Germanic invasion once the Vandals are taken care of.