Paul V McNutt
Banned
If Germany surrenders in the fall of 44, then allied forces are in the Pacific by January 45 or so, With the bombing being twice as hard, Japan surrenders before the atom bomb is dropped.
Not a chance. Just about everything I've seen about the 20 July Plotters has them being a bunch of right-wing nationalists who are almost as out of touch with reality as Hitler was. Their demands included Germany being allowed to maintain the Anschluss with Austria, keep the Sudetenland, a return to the borders Germany had in 1914 which means large chunks of Poland, no occupation or war crimes trials with the Germans instead being allowed to investigate and prosecute any crimes domestically at their own discretion.
The British were never going to accept this since it was the invasion of Poland that brought them into the war - yes they acquiesced to the Soviet occupation of Poland but that was simply accepting reality, the idea of France giving up parts of Alsace-Lorraine is just insane. The Soviets weren't going to stop until Germany was ground down into dust and the Americans felt that since this was the second time in roughly twenty years they'd been dragged into a European war started by Germany this time they were going to do things properly and not have a third time. As PattersonAutobody said you can't spend five years telling people that the Nazis are satanic and the Germans little better only to cut a deal with them, conversely the Soviets were still widely seen as allies and being part of the good guys so you can't just double-cross them. The Allies meant what they said with regards to no separate peace agreements.
Stauffenberg wanted to retain all the totalitarian, militaristic and socialistic elements of National Socialism (p. 504). What he had in mind was the salvation of Germany by military men who could break with corruption and maladministration, who would provide an orderly military government and would inspire the people to make one last great effort. Reduced to a formula, he wanted the nation to remain soldierly and become socialistic...
The difference between Stauffenberg, Helldorf and Schulenburg — all of them counts — was that Helldorf had come to the Nazi Movement as a primitive, I might almost say an unpolitical revolutionary. The other two had been attracted primarily by a political ideology. Therefore, it was possible for Helldorf to throw everything overboard at once: Hitler, the Party, the entire system. Stauffenberg, Schulenberg and their clique wanted to drop no more ballast than was absolutely necessary; then they would paint the ship of state a military gray and set it afloat again.
Even if they had somehow pulled Valkyrie off, the plotters were just as delusional in their belief they could somehow negotiate with the Wallies and be allowed to keep fighting the USSR. If they somehow realized that there was no separate peace to be had, at best they might try and pull back to the Rhine and delay the WAllies long enough to ship everything east, but even then I think that's being generous. At worst they might face a counter-coup and the country descends into Civil War, which throws all bets for the post-war world up in the air.
My guess is that there will still be unconditional surrender, but somewhat earlier. The new regime will transfer all of their men east and give very little resistance, if any, to the AAs. No Battle of the Bulge this time. Auschwitz and Company are probably shut down and the Final Solution abandoned(assuming that someone like Himmler doesn't take over, whatever their feelings toward the Jews, the new guys will have bigger fish to fry and they know it), but the other camps remain up and the Jews and forced laborers in. Warsaw uprising, if it still happens, might be a little more successful as the Germans will be more likely to abandon Warsaw altogether and focus on defending eastern Germany at all costs. The military junta will not be dumb and focus on keeping the Russians away from Germany and trying to get some conditional surrender. When the latter clearly fails, then they will realize the jig is up and avoid the 1945 OTL Untergang, or they will simply not leave any German soldiers in the West for the Allies to kill anyway.
So this is all a good thing in terms of saving lives, both for the Germans and for their victims, but not impactful politically. Germany MIGHT hang onto a little more of its territory, but East Prussia and Austria are gone for sure. There also might be a little more resistance to the whole collective guilt thing, which won't really matter as the Cold War comes on schedule. How Germany's zones and Berlin will be impacted is anyones guess, but I have a hard time thinking a united Germany will be standing.
you're assuming the loyalists beat the plotters in the civil war
It should be noted that of the 6 million Holocaust victims, a third of them died in the last year of the war(or so I remember). So even at this stage, no Hitler would be a very good thing overall for the world in lives, especially if the Western front battles never happen and the bombing stops.