WI Stalin had annexed all his conquests?

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

1) what everyone else said
2) Stalin desperately, desperately wanted, demanded, needed buffer states to protect the Rodina from the nasty aggressive invading westerners. (OK, so paranoid, not realistic - but given Russia's history, at least understandable.) Keeping Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Romania as satellite states, and keeping Finland finlandized was a psychological necessity.

To change that, you'd need someone else in charge. Maybe Trotsky.

 

[cra0422]

2) Stalin desperately, desperately wanted, demanded, needed buffer states to protect the Rodina from the nasty aggressive invading westerners. (OK, so paranoid, not realistic - but given Russia's history, at least understandable.) Keeping Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Romania as satellite states, and keeping Finland finlandized was a psychological necessity.

Agree wholeheartedly. By not annexing Eastern Europe but making them friendly he made it so if the Western Powers invaded, they'd have to cross at least 1 or more countries to get to Russia proper. His dividing Poland with Hitler gave Hitler a common border for the Nazis to invade. This way, he can still keep invading armies at somewhat a distance.

 

[thekingsguard]

1) what everyone else said
2) Stalin desperately, desperately wanted, demanded, needed buffer states to protect the Rodina from the nasty aggressive invading westerners. (OK, so paranoid, not realistic - but given Russia's history, at least understandable.) Keeping Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Romania as satellite states, and keeping Finland finlandized was a psychological necessity.

To change that, you'd need someone else in charge. Maybe Trotsky.

Agree wholeheartedly. By not annexing Eastern Europe but making them friendly he made it so if the Western Powers invaded, they'd have to cross at least 1 or more countries to get to Russia proper. His dividing Poland with Hitler gave Hitler a common border for the Nazis to invade. This way, he can still keep invading armies at somewhat a distance.

The West would still need to cross thousands of miles to approach the Russian heartland.

 

[Cascadia]

The West would still need to cross thousands of miles to approach the Russian heartland.

Yes, but now there are going to be a lot more resistance fighters willing to help the west now that any notion that they're an independent people is gone.

Also, more Soviet troops are going to be tied up in Eastern Europe leading to them being a lot closer to the frontline at the start of a hypothetical war, and their guns are going to be focused inwards at rebels instead of the border with the West.

 

[Magnum]

Socialism in One Country, 1950

even bigger:

So Stalin decides it would be better to have Socialism in one country, and does away with the nominal independence of conquered territories. As a sweetener, he may offer increased autonomy to the various SSRs as well as drastically limit or even give up on the reparations to be paid. Also in the works is an earlier, almost immediate frosting of relations with the west - where the Red Army Soldier sets foot, communism follows

As to the map:

Greek SSR - Hitler decides not to allow his Balkan garrisons to withdraw, hoping to turn the situation around. Thus, most of Greece is liberated by the Red Army, which proceeds to empower the leftist guerrillas. Most islands and the Morea peninsula form the Kingdom of Greece, under British protection.

Austrian SSR - the Red Army took over Vienna and most of eastern Austria in the closing days of WW2. After disagreements with the Anglo-Americans, no transfer of territory takes place, and eastern Austria gets to enjoy the warm embrace of Mother Russia

Czecho-Slovak SSR - The Prague Offensive was the last major battle of WW2 in Europe, taking place after the official surrender of Nazi Germany, and it saw most of Bohemia liberated by the Red Army and its allies. US troops however had also reached most of the Sudetenland in the west, from where they haven't left since.

German SSR - After Hitler's last hoorah at the battle of Berlin, the capital and most of the surrounding area came under soviet occupation. Plans had been laid out for the western half of Berlin to be transferred to the allies in return for Thuringia and Saxony, but increased tensions saw the border stay in place

Norwegian SSR - the last organized Nazi resistance to take place in Europe was witnessed at Narvik, where the local German garrison was hoping to surrender to the Allies and not to the small expeditionary force the Soviets had scraped together. Despite weeks of vicious resistance, the Germans were eventually overcome by the continuous arrival of Soviet reinforcements. Following this victory, a revolutionary government was installed in the burned out ruins of Narvik.

Finnish SSR - The last European SSR to be admitted into the Union. The Finns were reluctant at first, but the half a million strong Soviet occupation force eventually convinced them to see the error of their former ways.

Iranian SSR - Soviet and Western Allied forces were supposed to have both been withdrawn from Iran. Fortunately for the landless Iranian peasants, that never happened, as the Soviets liberated them from their oppressive landlords and brought Socialism to them

Ainu SSR - Whilst the Americans were busy with Downfall in the South, Soviet forces managed to get a foothold in Hokkaido before Tokyo finally threw in the towel. What followed was the the liberation of the oppressed Ainu people, who got their own state (including Sakhalin and the Kuriles) within the brotherhood of socialist peoples.

Manchurian SSR - In a beautifully orchestrated offensive, the Red Army mopped the floor with the IJN in the final months of WW2. Despite the failure of Mao and his communists in China proper, Stalin was not about to give up land to the American puppet in Chongqing, and so set about integrating Manchuria into the Union. Parts of it went to the Korean and Mongolian SSRs, depending on the ethnic make-up of the population

Mongolian SSR - got bits of Manchuria and northern China that were inhabited by ethnic Mongols, as well as the protection of the glorious Red Army from the oppressive and decadent Koumintang in the south.

Korean SSR - liberated by comrade Stalin (who kicked out the last remaining Imperial Japanese forces in mainland Asia), governed by comrade Kim. Hopes to one day kick the evil American imperialists and their puppets out of Jeju island.

Xinjiang SSR - ever since their invasion in 1934, Red Army forces had been stationed in the region. After the loss suffered by their socialist comrades in the Civil War against the Koumintang, Stalin decided accepting them into the Union was the best way to keep them safe

Tibetan SSR - With the risk of an Imperialist aggression imminent, comrade Stalin decided that it was time to liberate the people of Tibet from their theocratic rulers and bring them into the 20th century

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I don't know why he would do this. OTL the USSR got almost all the benefits of being an imperial power without a lot of the downsides. In TTL the USSR can't even pretend to be anti-imperialist.

With the possible exceptions of Finland and Poland (because they had been part of Russia) I couldn't think of why he would do this either. However, the USSR could still pretend to be anti-imperialist if these countries had officially joined the Union of their own free will via plebiscites. I wrote officially because the plebiscites would probably have to be rigged. However, AFAIK the elections that brought pro-Soviet communist governments into power in Eastern Europe between 1945 and 1950 weren't free and fair either.

When I was writing the above it occurred to me that one reason for Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and Yugoslavia joining of their own free will or annexed whether they wanted it or not was Plan-Slavism. Was Stalin a Pan-Slav or could we make him one?

I doubt that anyone would believe it but Stalin could try to justify it as an act of Internationalism rather than Imperialism. That is he wasn't expanding the Russian Empire, but instead was creating one workers state out of the old Hapsburg and Tsarist empires plus a few other odds and ends.

 

[jsb]

The only problem with your nice map Magnum is that the rest of the world is painted light blue !

With such soviet expansion the rest of the world will simply have to accept membership of the American alliance to save themselves, forget about a non-aligned movement.

So you end up with W Europe, Turkey, Arabs, Iran, India, China and Japan mobilizing under US command with all of Africa and South America to supply them. (not forgetting AUS/CAN/NZ)

This leads to a very tense Cold war without the possibility of proxy wars to use up tension so probably open war and in that case the allies have a huge long term population and economic as well as nuclear advantage compared to a short term conventional forces advantage for the Soviets. W allies win but not without massive damage to the world ?

 

[B-29_Bomber]

Well, he has fewer votes in his bloc at the UN for one thing...
And a whole lot more 'domestic issues' for the Moscow bureaucracy to have to handle, instead of being able to delegate them to puppet governments.

Didn't the SSRs like Ukraine have UN membership?

 

[Sabot Cat]

Didn't the SSRs like Ukraine have UN membership?

IIRC, Stalin demanded as much, but the U.S., in turn, demanded that their States receive U.N. membership, so he backed down.

 

[Byzantion]

So no more Poland, East Ger,many and so on, theres only one big Soviet Union. What next?

Bulgaria nearly became a Soviet Republic if im not mistaken. Than the Soviet Union would have shared even more border with Yugoslavia.

The Baltic States had been reannexed, too which resulted in many Balts being forcefully deported.

 

[Dementor]

Bulgaria nearly became a Soviet Republic if im not mistaken. Than the Soviet Union would have shared even more border with Yugoslavia.

The Baltic States had been reannexed, too which resulted in many Balts being forcefully deported.

No, Bulgaria's leader merely made an empty offer to join the USSR as an excuse for getting more aid from the Soviets (successfully, it might be added). There was never any serious chance of Bulgaria actually joining the USSR.

 

[Sal Burger]

However, the USSR could still pretend to be anti-imperialist if these countries had officially joined the Union of their own free will via plebiscites. I wrote officially because the plebiscites would probably have to be rigged. However, AFAIK the elections that brought pro-Soviet communist governments into power in Eastern Europe between 1945 and 1950 weren't free and fair either.

Yeah, what you said.

 

[Blackfox5]

By doing so, Stalin signals he has no intention of cooperating with the West in the postwar world. This would change American and other countries' foreign policy immediately. It would also lead to immediate suppression of every Communist party in the Western world in varying degress.

When exactly does Stalin do this? The year matters. If we assume this is done quite early, say 1946, the following actions are likely.

1) Czechoslovakia escapes being occupied since the Red Army is withdrawn. Benes immediately allies with the West since the USSR is the obvious threat, not a revived Germany.

2) Yugoslavia defects to the Western camp. Tito gradually shifts to a social democratic governance model while remaining in power. His role in Yugoslavia is probably close to Franco in Spain. He will be dictator, but a democratic transition after his death is likely.

3) The US abandons trying to negotiate peace between Chiang and Mao in China, and increasingly supports Chiang's consolidation of power south of the Great Wall. Manchuria might be written off depending on exact Soviet moves.

4) Soviet Union expelled from the UN.

5) West Germany becomes the only Germany, and the Western Allies sign a separate peace treaty. Germany regains sovereignty and rebuilds its armed forces much earlier than OTL.

6) The West institutes a policy of non-recognition of the annexation like the US did with the Baltic states. It recognizes a whole series of governments-in-exile.

7) US rearmament begins much earlier instead of waiting for the Korean War. NATO is established much earlier, as is the Marshall Plan.

8) West begins economic quarantine like it did with Japan - it imposes embargoes.

Stalin disliked risk. He was opportunistic, but always preferred to work with partners in order to best protect the Soviet Union. If he decided to unilaterally annex Eastern Europe as individual soviet republics, it means he is either brain damaged or believes the West is close to economic collapse. Taking such a step burns every bridge he has. He is making a big bet and putting all his chips into it.

 

[Blackfox5]

Xinjiang SSR - ever since their invasion in 1934, Red Army forces had been stationed in the region. After the loss suffered by their socialist comrades in the Civil War against the Koumintang, Stalin decided accepting them into the Union was the best way to keep them safe

Stalin actually pulled out of Xinjiang completely by 1942. Warlord Sheng Shicai even repudiated his pro-Communist policies and aligned himself with Chiang. Chiang managed to oust Sheng in 1945 and install loyal Kuomintang officials.

As for everything else you posted, such a policy in 1945 would have completely changed American and British foreign policy before WWII in Europe was even over. It completely risks WWIII. Operation Unthinkable becomes Operation Obvious. Most likely Truman gives Stalin an ultimatum once the atomic bomb is available, but waits until the US has multiple bombs.

Expected atomic bomb production was 3-4 for September and October each, at least five in November, and seven from December. So after November, the US could have a dozen atomic bombs stockpiled and ready to use.

I suspect in your scenario that Truman and Attlee will attempt diplomatic negotiations throughout the summer and fall of 1945 to resolve the crisis. Allied forces will not leave the Elbe, and Eisenhower will begin preparations for a defensive struggle anticipating a probable retreat to the Rhine. Since negotiations will fail, Truman will issue the ultimatum in December 1945 or early 1946. When Stalin refuses, the Allies declare war and drop bombs on the most important twelve or so military targets - the critical oil, infrastructure, and command hubs of the Soviet Union and Red Army. Thereafter, the Soviet Union is hit with another six or more atomic bombs every month. Given that the Soviet Union had a famine in 1946, the Red Army starves to death in 1946 even if it achieves temporary military success in Central Europe. The Soviet Union collapses, and the war is over in 1947.

 

[Panica]

I don't know why he would do this. OTL the USSR got almost all the benefits of being an imperial power without a lot of the downsides. In TTL the USSR can't even pretend to be anti-imperialist.

*Comrade your lack of Revolutionary thinking is large handicap!
People decided to join voluntary!*

There would be still enough of useful Idiots....