WI Stalin guarantees Polish and Baltic independence?

[Meshakhad]

This was inspired by a discussion on Twitter over whether the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was justified. So I'm considering if there was a viable alternative.

Following the occupation of Czechoslovakia in March 1939, Stalin announces that the Soviet Union will guarantee the territorial integrity of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and specifically cites Germany as a potential aggressor. Stalin's thinking here is that the Soviet Union is in a much better position to provide actual assistance, and in doing so he can gradually bring these states under Soviet influence.

How would their governments react to this? And if Germany does invade Poland anyway in September, how does the war go when the Soviet Union comes to Poland's defense?

 

[Snaut]

Few people would trust Soviet offers of sending the Red Army to "help". But the Soviets could make Germany a lot weaker than OTL just by doing absolutely nothing. No military help in 1939 means that Germany must finish Poland off on its own. This means fighting at the end of longer supply lines in deteriorating weather. More men, equipment and ammunition are lost. And without the raw materials from the USSR these losses are harder to replace. The beginning of 1940 will look much worse for Hitler than it did in OTL. The big question is if this weakens Germany enough for France to hold out.

 

[kham_coc]

on the other hand, that means that the eastern lands are there for a german invasion of the USSR. The trade impacts are probably more relevant.

 

[Alanith]

If and when Germany invaded, Stalin would send in the Red Army to “help”. The people of Poland would be so grateful they would naturally vote to become part of the Soviet Union shortly afterwards.

 

[Polish Eagle]

This was inspired by a discussion on Twitter over whether the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was justified. So I'm considering if there was a viable alternative.

Following the occupation of Czechoslovakia in March 1939, Stalin announces that the Soviet Union will guarantee the territorial integrity of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and specifically cites Germany as a potential aggressor. Stalin's thinking here is that the Soviet Union is in a much better position to provide actual assistance, and in doing so he can gradually bring these states under Soviet influence.

How would their governments react to this? And if Germany does invade Poland anyway in September, how does the war go when the Soviet Union comes to Poland's defense?

I do not see the Polish government granting the Red Army permission to enter the country until Warsaw itself is besieged. That said, that only took a week after the war's outbreak, and German advance troops were fighting near Lwow very shortly thereafter--so in this scenario, it's not totally impossible for the government to lose confidence that the French and British will do something and allow the Red Army in around the OTL date of the Soviet invasion. They'd know that this means losing Lwow and Wilno, but hope that they can retain the lands west of the "Curzon line."

If the Soviets issue a guarantee, though, I wonder--would that prevent the British from issuing their OTL guarantee, on the grounds of "someone else's problem"? Or would they issue the guarantee to ensure that they have influence in central Europe?

 

[Meshakhad]

Few people would trust Soviet offers of sending the Red Army to "help". But the Soviets could make Germany a lot weaker than OTL just by doing absolutely nothing. No military help in 1939 means that Germany must finish Poland off on its own. This means fighting at the end of longer supply lines in deteriorating weather. More men, equipment and ammunition are lost. And without the raw materials from the USSR these losses are harder to replace. The beginning of 1940 will look much worse for Hitler than it did in OTL. The big question is if this weakens Germany enough for France to hold out.

I agree that it's unlikely that there's any pre-war cooperation. However, I suspect that once Germany invades, Poland might decide that being "assisted" by the Soviets is better than being conquered by the Nazis.

 

[CoolUsername]

If and when Germany invaded, Stalin would send in the Red Army to “help”. The people of Poland would be so grateful they would naturally vote to become part of the Soviet Union shortly afterwards.

Hahaha the voting ballots will have only 1 checkbox

 

[marathag]

Uncle Joe can get some goodwill just by donating Armaments to Poland, no strings attached.
A thousand BT-7s, 500 SB Bpmbers and 500 I-16 Type 10 would give the Nazis pause

 

[Gannt the chartist]

This was inspired by a discussion on Twitter over whether the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was justified. So I'm considering if there was a viable alternative.

Following the occupation of Czechoslovakia in March 1939, Stalin announces that the Soviet Union will guarantee the territorial integrity of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and specifically cites Germany as a potential aggressor. Stalin's thinking here is that the Soviet Union is in a much better position to provide actual assistance, and in doing so he can gradually bring these states under Soviet influence.

How would their governments react to this? And if Germany does invade Poland anyway in September, how does the war go when the Soviet Union comes to Poland's defense?

At which point Britain and France are also Guaranteeing Polish Independence for the same reasons. Whether or not the Poles accept Red Army support a unilateral guarantee is still a guarantee.

Now the Germany could invade Poland or it could go Bankrupt and the crises of the 1940s is averted through collective security.

 

[Garrison]

I have to wonder what circumstances would cause Stalin to do this? The whole point of making a deal with the Germans was to get them to strike west after Poland and get bogged down in a long draining fight. Issuing a guarantee to Poland is provoking an attack on the USSR.

 

[marathag]

I have to wonder what circumstances would cause Stalin to do this? The whole point of making a deal with the Germans was to get them to strike west after Poland and get bogged down in a long draining fight. Issuing a guarantee to Poland is provoking an attack on the USSR.

Or realize that one way to ruin Germany is to watch their economy crash from too much military spending, and them too chicken to try and take a better armed Poland with better Guarantees

 

[Garrison]

Or realize that one way to ruin Germany is to watch their economy crash from too much military spending, and them too chicken to try and take a better armed Poland with better Guarantees

Its possible, but its a heck of a gamble with the state of the Red Army in 1939.

 

[marathag]

Its possible, but its a heck of a gamble with the state of the Red Army in 1939.

State of the Red Army was great!
After all, just purged out the weak sisters, wreckers, traitors and spies from the ranks in 1938
What is left is like Iron, hard in their belief of the righteousness of the Soviet way

The Soviet Army and VVS were the largest in the world, and just taught a lesson to the upstart Japanese in the far east.
What is there to fear from some Fascists?
/Stalin mode off

 

[marcinL]

Hahaha the voting ballots will have only 1 checkbox

And the voters are advised to vote without making an X anyway. As you might guess the result is 100% for and 99.9% turnout.

 

[Crueldwarf]

Option II of the possible outbreak of hostilities is when POLAND is the object of the attack.

If France and England also declare war on the aggressors by virtue of their treaty with Poland and immediately oppose them, the USSR will have to oppose the aggressors by virtue of its treaty with England and France.

Poland can be attacked not only by the main aggressor, but, in all likelihood, Hungary will take part in the war against Poland.

It must be assumed that in this case, Romania will enter the war on the side of Poland. True, her assistance will be limited, since Romania itself will be constrained by Bulgaria and Hungary, but still Romania should be obliged to put up at least

20 infantry divisions
3 cavalry divisions
2276 medium and heavy guns
240 tanks
440 aircraft.

France and England must deploy with their armed forces, as indicated in Option I, and deliver the main blow against the primary of the aggressors.

The development of operations of the armed forces of France and England should be carried out, as indicated in Option I.

Our participation in the war can only happen when France and England agree with Poland and, if possible, also with Lithuania on the passage of our troops north of Minsk through the Vilnius corridor and on providing our Baltic Fleet with a joint base with the combined Anglo-French fleet, as indicated in option I.*

In this case, we allocate forces, as indicated in option I, and direct them against East Prussia.

France and England must require Poland to deploy at least 40 infantry divisions with the appropriate artillery against East Prussia and Pomerania. At the same time, Poland is obliged to ensure the maneuver of our troops in the north-east of Poland by providing us with railways and rolling stock for the transportation of military supplies and food.

The simultaneous invasion of aggressors in southern Poland (Galicia) by Slovakia and Hungary will require us to deploy additional forces on the borders with Poland and Romania, but in conjunction with the forces allocated for action against East Prussia it will be equal toh the forces deployed by England and France against the primary aggressor, i.e., 80 infantry divisions, 12 cavalry divisions, 9,500-10,000 medium and heavy guns, 3,500-4,000 tanks, 3,000-3,500 aircraft.

The command of our armed forces remains with us. Coordination of hostilities with England and France is achieved by special agreement during the war...

*As for our Baltic Fleet, in the case of a favorable resolution of the issue, it will be based together with the combined fleet of France and England on the Gange, Åland and Moonsund archipelagos, Pernov, Gapsal, Gainash and Libava in order to protect the independence of the Baltic countries.

Under these conditions, the Baltic Fleet can develop its cruising operations, the actions of submarines and the laying of mines off the coast of East Prussia, Danzig and Pomerania. Baltic Fleet submarines impede the supply of industrial raw materials from Sweden to the primary aggressor.

The foregoing is a prerequisite for negotiations, during which the positions of France and England will be clarified in a sincere desire to conclude an agreement.

It is what Soviets were proposing historically. It never went anywhere.

 

[marathag]

Hahaha the voting ballots will have only 1 checkbox

That's not how it's done.
You have one ballot, with your name on it.

You place the ballot in one of two boxes displayed in the center of the polling place

'Yes' or 'No'

That way, voting is seen as open, with no chance of any ballot stuffing or anything like what is done in
Bourgeois areas.