WI: Spanish invasion of China

[Taunay]

It was in 1576, when Philippine governor Fransisco de Sande took up the cause, that the pressure to launch an expedition ratcheted into high gear and led to the creation of an elaborate and more realistic—albeit still fantastic—plan. In a dispatch to Madrid dated June 7, de Sande estimated that four to six thousand well-armed Spaniards would be needed to accomplish the task, plus some Japanese and Chinese pirates who would join the enterprise, presumably lured by the prospect of booty. They would sail to the southern Chinese coast, only a two-day journey from northern Luzon, aboard a fleet of galleys built locally using the trees that grew so plentifully on the island. Once there, a force of two or three thousand men would storm ashore and seize one Chinese province. “This will be very easy,” de Sande assured the king, for the people “generally have no weapons, nor do they use any. A corsair with two hundred men could rob a large town of thirty thousand inhabitants. They are very poor marksmen, and their arquebuses are worthless.” After that, all the other provinces would fall to the invaders, for the Chinese were a downtrodden people and would take the opportunity of the Spanish conquest to revolt against the Ming. “[F]inally,” de Sande concluded, “the kind treatment, the evidences of power, and the religion which we shall show to them will hold them firmly to us.”[9]

Governor de Sande, like de Rada and de Artieda before him, did not receive approval from Madrid to go ahead with his plan.

-http://www.samuelhawley.com/imjinarticle3.html

Even though it's extremely unlikely, what if Philip agrees to this and Spain invades China in the late 1570s? What would be the impacts in either Ming China or Spain?
@Xenophonte @Kurt_Steiner @Metempsychosis @Sceonn @Aluma @holycookie

 

[Xenophonte]

Even though it's extremely unlikely, what if Philip agrees to this and Spain invades China in the late 1570s? What would be the impacts in either Ming China or Spain?

Well, the whole idea was unfeasibly militarily, if for anything, cause due to OTL technological, logistical and financial reasons.
I think that what the Royal approbation and support to this proposed expedition 'd have meant for the Spanish Empire situation, would be best expressed through a old Spanish saying : 'Desvestir un Santo para vestir otro' ('to undress one saint to dress another', the Spanish version from the English language one: 'taking from Peter to pay Paul').
Cause, IMO, and to put it mildly, it would have required a military and even more impressive logistical effort, one even greater than the one, done for the OTL, failed 'Gran Armada'.
And, given the resources that'd have been necessary spent on it could be very probable for it to end butterflying/making it impossible. Also, on the military side, it would mean that would be diverted and/or recruited but anyway sent away for the time to come, around of two Tercios worth of very needed troops. What, would mean a bigger impact that would strain the ongoing Spanish war effort.
About China, and supposing that, at least, most of the fleet transporting the armies, would make it to Manila, and even more unlikely, that the Chinese wouldn't get forewarned... It, would depend on the general assigned/that get to command the expedition and if, said general would be able, once they would have landed and fought some battles, readjusts the invasion objectives to somewhat more 'realist possible to achieve' ones.
But, for that it would be possible, IMO, first, he and his commandants, should realize how big was the Empire and badly outnumbered they would be and that they would be left to their own means/to live off the land and without native guides nor allies to help/advise them.
If not, I would fear that, aside of any possible (limited) initial success that they would be slowly but surely bleed off and eventually whatever would be left at the expedition command, that would be forced to attempt, if possible, to withdraw to the closest port. It would be a Spanish reversion of the March of the Ten Thousand, but towards the, possibly still held, conquered army's entry point to the Chinese empire.

 

[Taunay]

Well, the whole idea was unfeasibly militarily, if for anything, cause due to OTL technological, logistical and financial reasons.
I think that what the Royal approbation and support to this proposed expedition 'd have meant for the Spanish Empire situation, would be best expressed through a old Spanish saying : 'Desvestir un Santo para vestir otro' ('to undress one saint to dress another', the Spanish version from the English language one: 'taking from Peter to pay Paul').
Cause, IMO, and to put it mildly, it would have required a military and even more impressive logistical effort, one even greater than the one, done for the OTL, failed 'Gran Armada'.
And, given the resources that'd have been necessary spent on it could be very probable for it to end butterflying/making it impossible. Also, on the military side, it would mean that would be diverted and/or recruited but anyway sent away for the time to come, around of two Tercios worth of very needed troops. What, would mean a bigger impact that would strain the ongoing Spanish war effort.
About China, and supposing that, at least, most of the fleet transporting the armies, would make it to Manila, and even more unlikely, that the Chinese wouldn't get forewarned... It, would depend on the general assigned/that get to command the expedition and if, said general would be able, once they would have landed and fought some battles, readjusts the invasion objectives to somewhat more 'realist possible to achieve' ones.
But, for that it would be possible, IMO, first, he and his commandants, should realize how big was the Empire and badly outnumbered they would be and that they would be left to their own means/to live off the land and without native guides nor allies to help/advise them.
If not, I would fear that, aside of any possible (limited) initial success that they would be slowly but surely bleed off and eventually whatever would be left at the expedition command, that would be forced to attempt, if possible, to withdraw to the closest port. It would be a Spanish reversion of the March of the Ten Thousand, but towards the, possibly still held, conquered army's entry point to the Chinese empire.

Thank you for answering!

 

[raharris1973]

This is just over 15 years before the Ming Dynasty intervention in the Imjin War. I am not sure if Wanli in Ming Emperor yet. Even if he was, he hadn't lost interest in governing yet. A key question would be how motivated he and the Chinese would be for a smashing and thoroughgoing revenge campaign to confiscate the Spanish bases in the Philippines after, of course, defeating the Spanish in China. The Chinese may have some support from their tributary allies like Korea, the Liuchiu Kingdom, Siam, and Vietnam, as well.

 

[Taunay]

This is just over 15 years before the Ming Dynasty intervention in the Imjin War. I am not sure if Wanli in Ming Emperor yet. Even if he was, he hadn't lost interest in governing yet. A key question would be how motivated he and the Chinese would be for a smashing and thoroughgoing revenge campaign to confiscate the Spanish bases in the Philippines after, of course, defeating the Spanish in China. The Chinese may have some support from their tributary allies like Korea, the Liuchiu Kingdom, Siam, and Vietnam, as well.

Interesting, being able to dislodge Spain from the Philippines would give even more prestige to China amongst European intellectuals in the XVII-XVIIIth centuries

 

[Metempsychosis]

It didn't work in the 1520s, it won't work in the 1570s. The 1590s or 1610s, on the other hand...

 

[Xenophonte]

A key question would be how motivated he and the Chinese would be for a smashing and thoroughgoing revenge campaign to confiscate the Spanish bases in the Philippines after, of course, defeating the Spanish in China.

Indeed, but an even more couple of key things, that'd be worth to remember'd be that the attempted invasion and final victory would have left horrendous human losses and a great material destruction in its wake.
And that, at sea the Spanish galleons, even if outnumbered, would have the upper hand against the Chinese Junks. But, IMO, the most probably, outcome would be that the Chinese would enact a ban against any Westerners and also, either the central govt or the regional ones, would to be forced to keep attention to their coastal regions/provinces and be prepared to face any other future Western invasion from beyond the sea.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Even though it's extremely unlikely, what if Philip agrees to this and Spain invades China in the late 1570s? What would be the impacts in either Ming China or Spain?

It'd probably be like a smaller version of the Imjin War -- the Spanish make good progress initially against an unprepared enemy, before getting bogged down and forced out.

One interesting question is how would the Chinese civilian population react? Would we see Korean-style "Righteous Army" movements, or would the local remain mostly quiescent and see which side wins?

 

[Metempsychosis]

One interesting question is how would the Chinese civilian population react? Would we see Korean-style "Righteous Army" movements, or would the local remain mostly quiescent and see which side wins?

Considering how corrupt the Ming regime was even before the Wanli emperor... it's a fifty-fifty thing, I think.

 

[Paladín Wulfen]

-http://www.samuelhawley.com/imjinarticle3.html

Even though it's extremely unlikely, what if Philip agrees to this and Spain invades China in the late 1570s? What would be the impacts in either Ming China or Spain?
@Xenophonte @Kurt_Steiner @Metempsychosis @Sceonn @Aluma @holycookie

Tu invocastes mi aparición.
​

I gonna answer short: No. That was a idea made by Conquistadors who his last enemy was enemies who don't have experience in warfare like Europeans even gunpowder weapons. The King Philip don't bother in answer mostly because the idea it's so stupid so don't need answer. Answer it its give a attention who can encourage more suggests. ​

 

[Taunay]

Tu invocastes mi aparición.
​

I gonna answer short: No. That was a idea made by Conquistadors who his last enemy was enemies who don't have experience in warfare like Europeans even gunpowder weapons. The King Philip don't bother in answer mostly because the idea it's so stupid so don't need answer. Answer it its give a attention who can encourage more suggests. ​

Philip could accept it. It would be out of character but it's not impossible, changing a person's behavior and thoughts doesn't count as ASB from what I've read.
--------
Now what I think would happen:
Spain would be defeated and humiliated, Ming China would still be in a good situation by that point.
All in all, Philip was really smart for declining that.

 

[Oda]

If is koxinga Taiwan maybe it will work but against Ming China fat chance lmao

 

[Onedotman]

It didn't work in the 1520s, it won't work in the 1570s. The 1590s or 1610s, on the other hand...

Or even better, the Spanish can take advantage of the chaotic Ming-Qing transition in the 1640s. Though I don't know whether Spain still had the incentive to invade China six decades later than the OP's POD. Maybe we'd end up with Koxinga's fleet saving the (rump) Ming and kicking Spanish ass at the same time?

 

[Dissokios]

Try to successfully deal the Cambodians before China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian–Spanish_War

 

[PecuTheGreat]

Spain tried to intervene in Cambodia after that, it didn't go anywhere. China being a much bigger fish, it'll probably be similar.

Unless u make it like a passion project of some Spanish King to invade China(like Japan had), then u got something more but even then, China's still a big fish.

I do suspect they'll have like 3 good months of raiding and occupation and in the later option, depending on how rapidly they progress but they'll then be driven out.

 

[Oda]

Or even better, the Spanish can take advantage of the chaotic Ming-Qing transition in the 1640s. Though I don't know whether Spain still had the incentive to invade China six decades later than the OP's POD. Maybe we'd end up with Koxinga's fleet saving the (rump) Ming and kicking Spanish ass at the same time?

Proceed to get wrecked by the advancing Manchu armies lmao
Also debatable koxinga can even save the southern ming the man lack the manpower to penetrate beyond the coastal provinces. Not to mention that most of the ming former generals defected to the winning side (Wu Sangui etc).

 

[Terço]

If Spain invades and the adventure ends in humiliation perhaps the claim of Philip I to the portuguese throne isn't successful and Teodósio de Bragança became Teodósio I and the Bragança dinasty starts in 1580 so no Iberian Union and the portuguese fleet isn't sacrificed to promote spanish goals.

 

[Taunay]

If Spain invades and the adventure ends in humiliation perhaps the claim of Philip I to the portuguese throne isn't successful and Teodósio de Bragança became Teodósio I and the Bragança dinasty starts in 1580 so no Iberian Union and the portuguese fleet isn't sacrificed to promote spanish goals.

That's very interesting!
A no Iberian Union world has always fascinated me

 

[kasumigenx]

I think this is more likely without a Limahong invasion.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Things CAN go wildly different than people assume