Let's say that France, Austria, Hungary, and Poland all converted to Protestantism while the Ottomans invade and conquer Italy. With most of Europe divided between Protestants and the Ottomans, how does Spain handle this? Would Spain become a hermit empire only interacting with its colonies or will they become radicalized and try to invade Europe in an attempt to reclaim Rome and the Netherlands?
WI: Spain the last Catholic state in Europe
- Thread starter Kaiser Tito
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Does Spain have control of Italy? If not, there's a 99% chance the Papacy would move to Madrid or somewhere in Iberia. If Portugal converted to Protestantism, the Spanish would probably conquer them or at least put a Cath monarch on the throne. Depending on the geopolitical situation of Europe, Spain may embark on a revanchist holy war to reclaim France, the Benelux, and Italy for the Catholic cause. However this'd only occur if something like the 30 years war is occurring, otherwise all of Western Europe, barring the English, would gang up on them.
Spain only controls Sardinia while losing Sicily and Naples to the Ottomans. As for the Pope it's probably the same situation as the Patriarch of Constantinople though Spain could have an antipope in defiance.
If the Pope supported the Ottomans, then it wouldn't surprise me if the Spanish propped up their own anti pope
In this case they will focus on this region before trying the rest of Europe. Especially because they are catholic regions. At the same time, Austria being Protestant will not make the nation pro-Ottomans (the same for France to be honest). Protestant or not, the three Christian kingdoms want Italy. Which could make the peninsula turn into a 4 way war. If the rest of Europe converts to Protestantism, catholicimos will basically become the Iberian religion(and italian). Taking the characteristics of this region. At the same time, a union with Portugal is very likely. With so many opponents, Spain will give Portugal more space. This probably eliminates the possibility of the kingdom revolting as in the otl. The money from the new world will be used in Spain/Iberia and not in armies and in the Netherlands. that makes this region poorer than Otl. Also If all these nations are Protestant, then being Protestant does not generate unity. Wars will occur between the different Protestant kingdoms. At the same time, immigration of Catholics from the rest of Europe to Iberia is very likely.
If Germany manages to retake to northern half restoring HRE borders, would they have any interest in Naples or would the let the Ottomans keep the South while defending their gains from France and Spain?
Germany is not a think at the moment. If the HRE (or better austria) retakes the north they will want the south as well. Ottoman italy only works if France, Austria and Spain do not exist. Although of the three Spain would have the greatest ease in making allies and France would have the greatest manpower. Austria's link was to be the emperor of the hre, but without that Austria is just another invading power. the Pope will be pro-Spain. I would say that the most likely thing is for Spain to conquer the south until a little after the Papal States. And the rest being divided between France and Austria. But in the end, who will have the biggest advantage will always be Spain in relation to local support.
Since a protestant HRE would cease to be the HRE I'm just calling it Germany for simplicity. Would Germany be capable of taking all of Italy from the Ottomans?
Grey Wolf
Donor
But you are rather overlooking its institutions and without them why should Thuringen or Mecklenberg follow an Austrian into Italy? Protestants can hardly call a Crusade
There is no germany that is the point. What you have are hundreds or thousands of kingdoms in central Europe. There is no Germany, the strongest German state is Austria. Now, without HRE, Austria will not have as much influence as in OTL. To be honest, they will probably focus more on the French advance towards the Rhine. But they will want Italy as well. But it is more difficult to convince the north/south German kingdoms to bleed for Italy. Especially with Italy being Catholic. I bet on France and Spain.
Between Austria, Spain and France. The last two can move the Ottomans more easily.
Does the Iberian Union last in this timeline because Iberia is the only haven left for Catholicism, or does Portugal convert as well (Imagine if Sebastianism becomes an actual religion)
Yeah that was what I thought when I saw this scenario
Portugal:
Am I a joke to you?
But yeah I dont see Portugal converting to any other religion, they were still in a crusader mindset and as popular Sebastianism was it still perceived itself as catholic and even the Lisbon Earthquake didnt make it become an actual religion despite the warnings of a sebastianist before the earthquake giving it a popularity boost unseen before
Simply put, its hard to top OTL in sebastianist wank and Portugal saw itself as the defender of the Catholic Church just as extremely as Spain if not more, seeing they went as far away as India looking for a magical christian kingdom to destroy Islam, and the fall of the Church in all of Europe but Iberia would give them such a siege mentality that they'd go even more nuts than OTL in the "must save the Catholic Christendom" mentality
I asked because I couldn't really see it either and just wanted to check their actual odds. It doesn't matter to me whether Italy is dominated by Huguenot France or the Ottomans (though I believe kicking the turks out of Naples may prove difficult), I just wanted to keep Italy out of Catholic hands to see if Spain could get any more fanatical then it was otl.
Portugal stays Catholic. I probably should've just said Iberia but since Spain's the more well known of the two... 🤷♂️
To be fair Portugal went by Spain too(as in Roman Hispania) and were kinda pissed off the castillians took the name when they got Aragon too so eh not inaccurate, just outdated
Not really look, I'll be honest with you, I think it's difficult for the Turks to be able to hold Naples long term. If you don't want Spain to win Naples then it will go to France. Probably through a coalition of France + northern Italian kingdoms. Maybe even with Austrians and Poles attacking in the Balkans.
Hardly, they were already OTL fanatics, what changes in this TL is their mentality. With Iberia being more united. If Spain thinks that the rest of Europe is against Catholicism, they will look to the new world, Africa and Asia to expand. Although in this era Spain was very, very strong and I think it's likely that Naples would fall into Spanish hands, at least Sicily. As a whole, all the money from the new world will be used in Iberia, which will make the peninsilla extremely rich. Furthermore, a greater focus on the navy could maintain the naval supremacy of the Iberian powers for longer. Or at least make it very difficult for rivals to rise.
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Would a Huguenot France actually try to annex all of Italy? I just feel that the Ottomans have a better chance of ruling over non-muslims then France would non-protestants.
What kind of Protestant? *looks at the vast number of denominations the Reformation spawned*
Everyone becomes anglican of course so that we can skip the Angevin and go straight to Rome!
Who would the Spanish Royal family marry in this instance? IOTL they weren’t willing to marry Protestants. Apart from more incest, are they open to marrying their own nobles?