fortyseven! Ask and I shall be glad to annoy the board! Good evening ladies and...good evening gentlemen(no ladies here)! The bus stopped with a jerk and here I am! Take my wife please! <gunshot in background, large man groans, falls to ground>
Based on the Nazi hierarchy, I suspect that Barbarossa MUST happen in 1941. With the US increasingly hostile, Hitler probably expects to fight the US soon enough. The last thing he wants is Stalin sitting back and laughing, or perhaps helping himself to a few territories here and there. Further, given the development of the Red Army and the recovery from the purges, giving the USSR another year or two might not be the wisest. So how might Barbarossa be done following a Sea Lion debacle?
Through January of 1941 I foresee Germany frantically replacing the shipping lost, diverting from naval construction except for U-boats and a few ships nearly completed. Sweden probably can gain a few favors as well in return for shipping.
In addition, the devastating losses to the Luftwaffe are compounded by the casualties suffered in Germany's Ju-52 and other transports, whose pilots normally serve as instructors. Possibly the shortages of several months cause a decision to delay the Tiger and stick with the Panther?
Above all, determined not to give Stalin and/or FDR another year, Hitler chooses to avoid diversionary campaigns. Given the enhanced British position, he understands that the Wehrmacht can destroy the British Army in an open confrontation. Therefore he must avoid smaller campaigns where British air and naval power can limit Wehrmacht involvment and give England easier victories. In particular, he negotiates a settlement between Mussolini and Greece, in which Greece is not only spared but given Southern Albania IN RETURN FOR TRUE NEUTRALITY. No RAF bases. Yugoslavia is also able to avoid the war. Alas, a small British force seizes the Dodecanese Islands and the RAF can still threaten Ploesti on a reduced scale. Meanwhile Vichy France is able to use the British threat to begin rearming in the remaining North African territories, setting a goal of 7 divisions(one armored) with 100,000 men. If Hitler does NOT agree there is the subtle hint that the remaining colonies and the fleet might just go over to the British. Of course, once the French have doubled or tripled the rump army of 100,000 and the US is in the war...
Alas, this does not greatly enhance Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union.
1) The miserable rains of spring mean that Barbarossa can not be advanced by more than 2-3 weeks, as panzers do poorly when trapped in the mud.
2) The new forces available are less than they might be due to the need for greater forces guarding against the British, especially the Balkans and Norway. Also, production was reduced for 5-8 months.
As a result the city fighting in Moscow and Leningrad proves incredibly bloody, but when Marshal Zhukov's forces are combined with the Russian Winter at Moscow, the Wehrmacht is forced into a bloody retreat. Although Moscow and Leningrad are both horribly damaged, and the Soviet government is disrupted for months, German losses are increased by the order of 10-15 divisions of manpower(260,000 to 390,000) ABOVE the 1941 losses. Also, this wasn't just a bloody attrition but ended(January 1942) in an outright defeat. And when the US then enters the war, with a stronger England harming Japan's prospects...
How sad that the aftermath of this convinces the Wehrmacht NEVER to engage in large scale city fighting with Russians again, and by better use of armor and other mobile forces, the summer 1942 offensive is ultimately a success...
