WI: Scramble for China?

[Superman]

While Qing China was weak and divided into spheres of influence by (among others) the British, French, Germans, Russians, and Japanese, it was never outright partitioned and/or colonized, like India and Africa were. However, in the late 19th century, could China be divided into colonies/protectorates by European imperialists and Japan? If so, what would be the effects on the colonial empires or on American trade with the Far East?

 

[LeX]

I think part of the issue is that the European powers are a little too far away and the Chinese a little too advanced technologically and socially to be colonized outright. I suppose that if, say, the Taiping Rebellion succeeded in toppling the Qing and then was determined to be a grave threat by the Europeans, it would be possible to mount a massive coalition war against China resulting in semi-colonization, but I don't think it's something the Europeans would do voluntarily.

Maybe if you have Imperial Russia do better, they would force more influence over Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. The Japanese and other others might be prompted to take a more active role in puppetizing the rest of the country to counter Russia.

 

[Lucius Verus]

The distance and local strength involved makes this a difficult proposition to begin with, look at India; politically and geographically divided and yet it took over two centuries and they started losing control of it as soon as the ideas of nationalism came to India. In contrast China is much stronger and one still has to compete with other colonial powers, the best time would be the 19th-20th century when there was civil unrest in China-problem is that it doesn't leave much time until nationalism takes root.

 

[Blackfox5]

China was an advanced state that had been politically unified for a long time. India had advanced states, but was subdivided into many polities. Africa lacked advanced states and was mostly organized at the chiefdom or tribal levels.

Therefore, the Europeans found it easy to expand into India and Africa. They only needed to make deals with local powers, assume control, and then expand later. In China though, Europeans needed to always negotiate with the Chinese central government which understood exactly what Europe really wanted and blunted their demands/ambitions wherever possible.

I think Europe would only be able to partition China if China had already broken down into various warlord states as it had done for periods throughout history. That would allow the Europeans to divide and conquer.

Here is an option. The White Lotus Rebellion of 1794-1804 was more successful. Central authority broke down, and China becomes de facto divided into warlord states for the next several decades. Europeans begin to establishes free ports and semi-protectorates in the 1840s and 1850s. However, outright annexations and true protectorates begin to happen starting in the late 1870s.

Europe (and Japan) can probably get a lot of the coast by the early 1900s. Russia likely occupies Manchuria. Britain may add Tibet to the Raj. There are various other polities along the coast - Britain may get the Canton area; Germany Shandong, France a greater Indo-China, Japan the bits it obtained int he first Sino-Japanese War plus North China.

However, as the barbarians divide up China, I think it will provoke a backlash and the rest of China in the interior will centralize and modernize perhaps with a capital at Wuhan.