Would Scotland actually go through with separating from England? Would Elizabeth II stay Queen of Scotland?
WI: Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 won
- Thread starter darklordoftech
- Start date
Probably not. Like with Brexit no one knew what they were voting for on a number of key issues.
I reckon they would have negotiated a deal to ukxit and put that deal to a referendum.
I imagine the Queen would have remained in either case.
But Brexit is looking very likely to happen. And unlike Brexit, there was a Scottish government that would take over and had produced a white paper on what their plans for an independent scotland would be. Scotland would leave, though with the difficulty it would have getting into the EU, coupled with the low fuel prices, I can't see them making much of a success of it up to this point.
Brexit will happen yes, but a lot of the people who voted for it are going to be unhappy. Once they trigger the exit process and start negotiating people will realise that they are not getting what they wanted.
Maybe, after the fact, that will happen, but not till we have left. The same would go for Scotland.
Scottish independence and Brexit likely means a hard English Scottish border.
Query does Scotland have a special relationship to Northern Ireland?
Query does Scotland have a special relationship to Northern Ireland?
Brexit happening is a lot less likely in this scenario.
Devvy
Donor
My take on it:
Scotland votes for independence. The SNP gleefully start putting together a whitepaper on the future of Scotland.
- The Queen is quickly recognised separately as Queen of Scotland, making Scotland another Commonwealth Realm, with Scotland gaining it's own membership of the Commonwealth of Nations.
- Scotland accepts the consequential independence of the Orkney and Shetland Islands; both become new Crown Dependencies of the rUK.
- Negotiations between the rUK and Scotland over nationality sees all Scottish residents, and those born within Scotland to become Scottish citizens if they so desire, in addition to UK citizenship. Those born post-independence will be solely Scottish citizens. All Scots with UK citizenship can keep it, which quickly resolves the status of Scots living elsewhere in the European Union. Discussions between the rUK, Scotland and Republic of Ireland agree to free movement of nationals between the three countries to resolve the status of non-Scots in Scotland.
- Scotland and rUK argue over the future of the Pound. Later on, rUK says Scotland can keep a single "Scottish Representative" on the board of the Bank of England and use the rUK Pound, but Scotland won't get any veto and will be outvoted almost all the time in policy decisions. Scotland is forced to accept this as the public are heavily against a new currency or adoption of the Euro, and the need to definitively settle the currency question for the sake of the economy.
- Some banks follow through on their threat and relocate to England where much of their customer base is, also in small part due to currency uncertainty. Others stay where they are, and later reassured by the currency union. It is still a hit to the Scottish economy however.
- Scotland informally negotiates for entry in to the European Union post independence. There is heavy resistance from Spain primarily, who want to set an example to Catalonia. Scotland is backed by the rUK, who don't want a hard border between rUK and Scotland, and Spain additionally wants to gain from rUK regarding Gibraltar. Stalemate, in the short term.
- The rUK, Scotland and Republic of Ireland come to agreement on Common Travel Area v2.0, a tripartite common travel area. A common short term visa for tourist and business visitors is implemented, to avoid the need for any further police/passport checks on the rUK-Scotland border. Customs checks remain however, due to Scotland dropping out of the European Union on independence. There is unofficial acceptance from the EU, that should Scotland rejoin the EU in future, that they can stay in the CTA instead of joining Schengen.
- Scottish economy suffers recession due to customs regulations on it's biggest trade partner; the rUK. It is however shored up by the extra oil receipts from it's oil rich North Sea grounds (although smaller waters due to Orkney and Shetlands). Scotland lowers corporation tax further to encourage companies to set up shop in Scotland.
- After a year or two "to set an example", and under heavy pressure Spain acquiesces to Scotland becoming a member of the European Union, "as a new member". The process is expected to take several years as Scottish law is rewritten once again to directly conform to EU regulations.
PS:
- Negotiations regarding the military see Scotland accepting a reduction in their share of the national deficit in return for leaving the UK/rUK military largely intact, as it can't just be subdividided. Scotland announces a token "Scottish Defence Force", largely accepting de-facto British protection from the rUK. The small military helps shore up the holes in the balance sheet from a shrinking economy.
- Scottish fishers jump in glee from being temporarily freed from the Common Fishery Policy, but the lack of easy export access to the EU quickly tempers matters.
- Scotland joins the UN reasonably easily, and also applies to join the Nordic Counil for closer relations with the Nordic states to expand it's foreign policy - especially with other EU members to push for it's accession.
Scotland votes for independence. The SNP gleefully start putting together a whitepaper on the future of Scotland.
- The Queen is quickly recognised separately as Queen of Scotland, making Scotland another Commonwealth Realm, with Scotland gaining it's own membership of the Commonwealth of Nations.
- Scotland accepts the consequential independence of the Orkney and Shetland Islands; both become new Crown Dependencies of the rUK.
- Negotiations between the rUK and Scotland over nationality sees all Scottish residents, and those born within Scotland to become Scottish citizens if they so desire, in addition to UK citizenship. Those born post-independence will be solely Scottish citizens. All Scots with UK citizenship can keep it, which quickly resolves the status of Scots living elsewhere in the European Union. Discussions between the rUK, Scotland and Republic of Ireland agree to free movement of nationals between the three countries to resolve the status of non-Scots in Scotland.
- Scotland and rUK argue over the future of the Pound. Later on, rUK says Scotland can keep a single "Scottish Representative" on the board of the Bank of England and use the rUK Pound, but Scotland won't get any veto and will be outvoted almost all the time in policy decisions. Scotland is forced to accept this as the public are heavily against a new currency or adoption of the Euro, and the need to definitively settle the currency question for the sake of the economy.
- Some banks follow through on their threat and relocate to England where much of their customer base is, also in small part due to currency uncertainty. Others stay where they are, and later reassured by the currency union. It is still a hit to the Scottish economy however.
- Scotland informally negotiates for entry in to the European Union post independence. There is heavy resistance from Spain primarily, who want to set an example to Catalonia. Scotland is backed by the rUK, who don't want a hard border between rUK and Scotland, and Spain additionally wants to gain from rUK regarding Gibraltar. Stalemate, in the short term.
- The rUK, Scotland and Republic of Ireland come to agreement on Common Travel Area v2.0, a tripartite common travel area. A common short term visa for tourist and business visitors is implemented, to avoid the need for any further police/passport checks on the rUK-Scotland border. Customs checks remain however, due to Scotland dropping out of the European Union on independence. There is unofficial acceptance from the EU, that should Scotland rejoin the EU in future, that they can stay in the CTA instead of joining Schengen.
- Scottish economy suffers recession due to customs regulations on it's biggest trade partner; the rUK. It is however shored up by the extra oil receipts from it's oil rich North Sea grounds (although smaller waters due to Orkney and Shetlands). Scotland lowers corporation tax further to encourage companies to set up shop in Scotland.
- After a year or two "to set an example", and under heavy pressure Spain acquiesces to Scotland becoming a member of the European Union, "as a new member". The process is expected to take several years as Scottish law is rewritten once again to directly conform to EU regulations.
PS:
- Negotiations regarding the military see Scotland accepting a reduction in their share of the national deficit in return for leaving the UK/rUK military largely intact, as it can't just be subdividided. Scotland announces a token "Scottish Defence Force", largely accepting de-facto British protection from the rUK. The small military helps shore up the holes in the balance sheet from a shrinking economy.
- Scottish fishers jump in glee from being temporarily freed from the Common Fishery Policy, but the lack of easy export access to the EU quickly tempers matters.
- Scotland joins the UN reasonably easily, and also applies to join the Nordic Counil for closer relations with the Nordic states to expand it's foreign policy - especially with other EU members to push for it's accession.
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The white paper came out before the referendum. Scotland was meant to be independent by 5 May 2016.
Scotland leaving the UK means it also leaves the EU's customs union, which means the regulations would apply to about 80% of Scotland's exports rather than just the UK's 65%.
The white paper projected Scottish oil revenue in FY15/16, the year of independence, to be at minimum £6,800m. The actual figure was £60m, contributing towards an overall Scottish government deficit of £14.8bn (9.5% of GDP, or 27.6% of public sector revenue). As such, you're looking at massive cuts to a government budget which has actually grown in real terms since FY09/10. Lowering corporation tax would be the last thing the new Scottish government would be capable of doing.
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
The issue with this is that once Scotland votes to leave the Union, there isn't much stopping them from actually having left by March 2016. Unlike Brexit, the Scottish and British Government are going to launch immediately into negotiations, and will have a clear picture on what will be happening on those key issues. Even if it's a shit deal at the end of it, the SNP aren't going to renegade on the referendum, and any further referendums will be on matters of constitutional affairs, not the deal that Holyrood gets from Whitehall.
If the Conservatives end up largest party in the next election (which isn't crazy but isn't likely), but without a majority and need to form a coalition, as long as it's not with UKIP the Referendum is the first thing on the chopping block for negotiations. It was always going to be, even when Cameron announced it.
Devvy
Donor
Meh, slight technical mistake. Regardless, the SNP will launch forwards at pace for independence, is what I'm saying.
Well, 65% to the rUK, and 15% to EU. Losing direct access to the EU is damaging, but it's the lack of access to the rUK which is the big monster killer.
Interesting, thanks for the info. I was just guessing about corporation tax in a ROI stab-in-the-dark, as economic affairs aren't my cup of tea!
Have read this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-36111753), I still wonder how Scotland would end up for oil revenues; presumably Salmond wouldn't give as many rebates, but granted the oil revenues to the new Scottish exchequer is going to drop.Definitely agree; it's such a black-and-white campaign issue for the SNP, as soon as they get any kind of yes, it'll be goodbye Scotland from the rUK, regardless of what people might say. Mandate established, Scotland goodbye.
I've been pondering this, and while I definitely agree that an EU referendum is on the cards, I wonder if the result might be different. The fact we would, in England, end up with an hard customs border with Scotland (if Scotland gets back in to the EU, or is committed hard-and-fast to joining asap), and thus customs inspectors on trains, and stopping cars on the M6/A74, A1 and other roads for inspections might scare some extra people to vote to Remain.
If Scotland is still outside the EU, then I guess it depends on the spin doctors.
A lot will depend on Scotland's exact status when the referendum is held.
While there are some connections (I remember the Orange Order actually went over to campaign for a No vote), there's not really any high level connections. It's interesting however how the Republic's view on Scottish Independence has shifted significantly since Brexit.
I dont think the SNP went into the Referendum expecting to win I personally believe it was simply brinkmanship to try and get a form of DevoMax. Salmon must have nearly shat his pants when it came so close.
Wasn't this put forward during the referendum, and the SNP roundly rejected it? I can't see them giving them up with no strings attached as soon as independence happens.
I can't see the rUK allowing Scotland into the pound, not just because they don't want to give Scotland an easy ride in order to prevent contagion to Wales or Northern Ireland, but because, after the Euro, all sides are thoroughly against entering into a currency union.
Again, the UK wouldn't be interested in giving Scotland an easy ride, having just spent the referendum campaign saying how terrible things would be for them if they left. If they didn't want a hard border, then they could come to their own arrangements, rather than letting them into the EU.
Keep in mind that in this scenario, Cameron has likely resigned. Whoever wins the subsequent leadership election will likely be more eurosceptic, though maybe not an outright leaver. They will make a big show of promising a referendum as the bare minimum, they would not backtrack on one having seen the Lib Dems get slaughtered over tuition fees, and alienate not only much of the public, but most of the membership, especially with the threat of UKIP still being in the back of their minds.
I think Scottish independence has some very interesting implications for 2015 though. It is entirely possible that the honeymoon period for the next PM reaches toward May and is enough to cancel out the backlash regarding losing Scotland, but if it isn't, Labour can expect to gain seats over OTL. I doubt it would be enough to govern in majority though. However, it could be enough to push them into minority territory, with SNP support, whose MPs would still be elected and would sit till independence under the plans of the white paper. There isn't much reason to presume they would do significantly worse had they won the referendum, in fact, they might win even more seats if they can make pitch it as a vote for a strong negotiating position.
So you could have Ed Miliband governing for all of a year with SNP support whilst they are simultaneously negotiating the exit of Scotland from the UK. When that year runs out and independence takes place, depending on how many seats they won in 2015, Labour could be left without a majority, having just lost the party that was propping them up, and likely without any other party strong enough to push them into a stable majority, there would probably be a second election in 2016.
Personally I've always thought that Labour would rather stay in opposition (or attempt govern as a minority party) than accept any support from the SNP. I suspect it would be viewed as too much of a poison chalice, particularly in a situation where the UK was negotiating with Scotland to end the Union. The SNP controlling both sides of the negotiation (as Labour's opponents would claim) would undermine the legitimacy of whatever deal resulted and undermine the legitimacy of the Labour party itself.
I am dubious about this. My feeling is that the conditions for keeping the pound would be more onerous than this.
I suspect that Scotland would eventually decide that keeping the pound was more trouble than it was worth, and would opt instead to create a "Scottish pound" which would be linked to the UK pound via currency board in the same way that the Falkland Islands has a currency with a value controlled by currency board that is called the pound, has the same value as the pound, but isn't legal tender in the mainland UK and is actually a separate currency. Given that most of Scotland's trade is with the rUK, this outcome might actually be reasonably practical too.
fasquardon
I don't really know enough to comment on most of the issues raised, but IMO there's no way Engand would accept Scotland in a currency union unless it's simply Scotland unilaterally keeping the Pound, but without any representation on the Bank of England. Not with the Euro-Crisis showing that any "no bail out" clauses only exist until it actually comes down to bailing out a currency union member or having a currency union member default.
Now as I wrote they simply could keep it anyway. But what they wouldn't be able to do would be to print it, in case money ever gets too tight. And every potential lender would know that, too. So Scotland would face significantly larger borrowing costs.
Now as I wrote they simply could keep it anyway. But what they wouldn't be able to do would be to print it, in case money ever gets too tight. And every potential lender would know that, too. So Scotland would face significantly larger borrowing costs.
Would the English try to force the Scots to take Northern Ireland during the negotiations?
This is so wrong it's laughable. They have even less connection to the rest of the UK than Edinburgh. They would remain part of Scotland, unless you want a PoD well back in the past.
Right. I will give my take.
Negotiations would be long and complex.
Major Areas of contention.
Currency. - Yes Scotland were so weak on this area it is laughable. They may have tried a Sterlingization route, but this would not last as Capital would flee south. I would expect a Scots Pound to be set up in a similar manner as happened in the Velvet Divorce.
The EU. - Another area where Yes Scotland were being economical with the truth. Scotland would be forced out of the EU. This would be a major blow to the SNP. I would expect them to attempt to blame the rest of the UK for this for not raising the issue with the EU during the IndyRef. Either way, EEA and possibly EFTA membership whilst negotiations begin for re-entry begin would be the most likely options. The Brexit vote would screw with this.
Pensions.- This is a difficult one. If Scotlands share would be in line with GDP, then Scotland may be ok. If in line with population, not so well. Either way, pensions would likely be worse in an independent Scotland as cuts would be required linked into the EU negotiations. This would be a blow to the "Yes Movement" brigade as their dreams are gradually eroded. Part of my Calvinist mindset likes this.
Faslane.- This could bring the international community on the side of the rest of the UK. I would expect an agreement on a phased withdrawal from the RN.
Areas of certainty.
The Royal Family. - This one is easy to answer as it was in the White Paper. The Queen would remain Head of State, but when not in the country, the duties would be carried out by the Presiding Officer of Parliament. One change is the Kirk did say they would expect a separate coronation in St. Giles for any future Scottish Monarch. A republic may happen eventually, but not in a short timescale.
Constitution. - There would be a new Scottish Constitution agreed by Parliament and a referendum. There will be increased power for Orkney/Shetland and the Western Isles.
Elections. - The first Scottish General Election would have taken part in May this year on the same date the Holyrood election would have taken place.
Other areas of interest.
Assets.- This could be a minefield. Everything from the Royal Collection to the status of Holyrood Palace and the Crown Estates would be up for debate. They are still ongoing talks over the Czech/Slovak divorce and this is far more integrated. These negotiations could last decades after the Union would be dissolved.
The Financial Sector.- I would expect a move south by much of the Banking Sector reducing the Edinburgh financial sector to one catering Scotland rather than the wider UK. This could affect tens of thousands of jobs. Edinburgh and Glasgow are currently inside the top twenty financial centres of Europe. This would be reduced, what with the EU exit, the initial currency problems and the rapid realignment to an economy of scale.
David Cameron would resign.
The BBC would be split up. I could see there being a major battle over the corporation.
I could see the NHS being trimmed back due to the imposed cuts. Socialism would be destroyed as part of the drive to cut our cloth.
I haven't even brought the unpreparedness of the UK Government into this. As with Brexit, they never prepared for defeat. This may work in the favour of Scottish negotiators in such a scenario. I could go into more detail but don't want to bore y'all.
Perhaps @The Red , @JN1 , @Archdeacon of Dunwich @RyanF want to give their views?
Negotiations would be long and complex.
Major Areas of contention.
Currency. - Yes Scotland were so weak on this area it is laughable. They may have tried a Sterlingization route, but this would not last as Capital would flee south. I would expect a Scots Pound to be set up in a similar manner as happened in the Velvet Divorce.
The EU. - Another area where Yes Scotland were being economical with the truth. Scotland would be forced out of the EU. This would be a major blow to the SNP. I would expect them to attempt to blame the rest of the UK for this for not raising the issue with the EU during the IndyRef. Either way, EEA and possibly EFTA membership whilst negotiations begin for re-entry begin would be the most likely options. The Brexit vote would screw with this.
Pensions.- This is a difficult one. If Scotlands share would be in line with GDP, then Scotland may be ok. If in line with population, not so well. Either way, pensions would likely be worse in an independent Scotland as cuts would be required linked into the EU negotiations. This would be a blow to the "Yes Movement" brigade as their dreams are gradually eroded. Part of my Calvinist mindset likes this.
Faslane.- This could bring the international community on the side of the rest of the UK. I would expect an agreement on a phased withdrawal from the RN.
Areas of certainty.
The Royal Family. - This one is easy to answer as it was in the White Paper. The Queen would remain Head of State, but when not in the country, the duties would be carried out by the Presiding Officer of Parliament. One change is the Kirk did say they would expect a separate coronation in St. Giles for any future Scottish Monarch. A republic may happen eventually, but not in a short timescale.
Constitution. - There would be a new Scottish Constitution agreed by Parliament and a referendum. There will be increased power for Orkney/Shetland and the Western Isles.
Elections. - The first Scottish General Election would have taken part in May this year on the same date the Holyrood election would have taken place.
Other areas of interest.
Assets.- This could be a minefield. Everything from the Royal Collection to the status of Holyrood Palace and the Crown Estates would be up for debate. They are still ongoing talks over the Czech/Slovak divorce and this is far more integrated. These negotiations could last decades after the Union would be dissolved.
The Financial Sector.- I would expect a move south by much of the Banking Sector reducing the Edinburgh financial sector to one catering Scotland rather than the wider UK. This could affect tens of thousands of jobs. Edinburgh and Glasgow are currently inside the top twenty financial centres of Europe. This would be reduced, what with the EU exit, the initial currency problems and the rapid realignment to an economy of scale.
David Cameron would resign.
The BBC would be split up. I could see there being a major battle over the corporation.
I could see the NHS being trimmed back due to the imposed cuts. Socialism would be destroyed as part of the drive to cut our cloth.
I haven't even brought the unpreparedness of the UK Government into this. As with Brexit, they never prepared for defeat. This may work in the favour of Scottish negotiators in such a scenario. I could go into more detail but don't want to bore y'all.
Perhaps @The Red , @JN1 , @Archdeacon of Dunwich @RyanF want to give their views?
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