WI: Russia sells Alaska to Japan

[Dean_the_Young]

and Cuba is....?

More of a freak accident who's revolution many in the US supported, and some even fought for, before it turned commie. One of my history teacher's classmates went down to Cuba to fight with Castro against the dictatorship.

After that, the Soviets allied with Cuba and guarded it from the US, eventually getting that promise not to invade.

 

[Hendryk]

I'd actually be more interested in a timeline where Japan lost an alternate Russo-Japanese War, as it would mean they would actually pay attention to Alaska.

You have a point. But then, why not take this line of reasoning one step further? Japan started getting greedy in 1895, once it had won the war against China and obtained Taiwan and Korea. Now, though it would seem at first sight that a terminally sclerotic Qing dynasty could only have lost against Meiji-era Japan, it bears reminding that the Yalu battle was a close-run thing, and that no major POD would be necessary to make the war end on a stalemate. If so, Japan wouldn't expand its sphere of influence to its west and south, and would instead focus on those territories it does have, and above all that huge, resource-rich, underpopulated land up north.

Incidentally, does anyone have figures on Japan's demographic growth during the Meiji era? With the option of outmigration to the US no longer open after the late 19th century, and no Korean and Taiwanese outlets, one may likely see a steady stream of migrants to Daikita or whatever the place would be called.

 

[Hendryk]

Just for the sake of the argument, here's a map of a Japanese empire that comprises Sakhalin, Kamchatka and Alaska (as well as the Kuriles but they don't show up). Is there someone out there who could volunteer a similar map but in a Pacific-centric version?

 

[pa_dutch]

However, Japanese linguists prior to 1945 really did not like Western loan-words. It is much more likely that they would try to invent their own new term for the territory than to use a corruption of the Russian or English name.

But it isn't really a Western word, it's a Native American (Aleut) word.

 

[stodge]

Alaska..

Many moons ago, I put up a scenario in which Russia never sold Alaska in the 1860s and was forced to cede it to Japan in 1905 as part of the Treaty of Portsmouth. In my scenario, the territory was returned to Russia in 1945 and became the Autonomous Republic of Alaska until breaking away in the early 1990s and becoming an independent state.

The scenario as put forward is similar. The question is to the strategic significance or otherwise of Alaska under Japanese rule. It could well have played a similar role to Manchuria after 1931 as part prison camp, part resettlement colony. Perhaps a younger son of the Emperor might be made the ruler of Alaska.

Assuming war breaks out between the Japanese Empire and the United States on December 7th 1941, what then ? One possibility is that Japanese forces, already stationed there, could be used either to invade Canada with a view to occupying perhaps Vancouver or even to stage raids on the Pacific North-West - places like Portland and Seattle. Certainly, Canadian towns and cities would be in range of Japanese aircraft. Roads would be a problem of course but it didn't stop the Japanese in Asia.

If everything plays out as in OTL, however, Alaska would likely come under American attack during 1942 and, I suspect, some form of amphibious landing along the southern coast might be staged to occupy the Japanese equivalents of Fairbanks and Juneau though I suspect the interior might be left alone.

So, to 1945. In this scenario, of course, the Russian "claim" to Alaska doesn't exist. It may be that America will simply "take" the territory much as the Russians had taken South Sakhalin. Another possibility is that it could be ceded to Canada as recognition for the Canadian efforts in the war. I'm not too sure about this. The third option is that it remains Japanese territory but with American troops stationed there to forestall any Russian move. I'm thinking of an Okinawa on a larger scale.

 

[Mike Stearns]

In Japan, the Meiji Era was officially proclaimed in February 3, 1867. In March of the same year, Russia started negociations with the US in order to sell Alaska. I wonder: what if Japan had been approached first? With a growing population and a nascent industrial base, the archipelago would soon start looking for foreign outlets, and engage in an overtly imperialistic policy which led to war against Russia itself, against China, France, Britain, the Netherlands, and ultimately against the US. Could it have been preempted by the purchase of a huge, resource-rich, underpopulated territory right at the beginning of the Meiji Era?

Of course Japan may later have taken an interest in the Kamchatka peninsula, which lies so conveniently between the Kurile and the Aleutian islands.

Thoughts?

I'd like to see the reaction of the United States when Japan attacks in World War II in this TL.

 

[Hendryk]

I'd like to see the reaction of the United States when Japan attacks in World War II in this TL.

That would be "if" rather than "when".

 

[David S Poepoe]

Assuming war breaks out between the Japanese Empire and the United States on December 7th 1941, what then ? One possibility is that Japanese forces, already stationed there, could be used either to invade Canada with a view to occupying perhaps Vancouver or even to stage raids on the Pacific North-West - places like Portland and Seattle. Certainly, Canadian towns and cities would be in range of Japanese aircraft. Roads would be a problem of course but it didn't stop the Japanese in Asia.

If everything plays out as in OTL, however, Alaska would likely come under American attack during 1942 and, I suspect, some form of amphibious landing along the southern coast might be staged to occupy the Japanese equivalents of Fairbanks and Juneau though I suspect the interior might be left alone.

Leaving aside the argument about the application of the Monroe Doctrine, since it was sort of invoked when there were suspicions of the Japanese leasing a port from the Mexicans in the 1910s, its highly likely that militarially the US would be better off with a Japanese held Alaska than OTL. The Pudget Sound region would shelter a major naval base and its possible that the Phillippines would be more developed to provide a counterweight from which to strike the Japanese Home Islands.

 

[Hendryk]

Seems the concept of a Japanese Alaska is enjoying a new round of speculation.

BTW, I wonder: how does the climate of the southern regions of Alaska (specifically, Anchorage) compare to that of Hokkaido? While further north it doesn't seem all that much colder. So the development of Hokkaido could provide a template for that of a Japanese Alaska.

 

[Max Sinister]

Hokkaido became a part of Japan relatively late, however.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

As for the name Alaska would have in that TL, it might be something along the lines of Daikita 太北. Just speculating--I don't speak Japanese, this is just an educated guess from the fact that kanji are interchangeable with Chinese characters.

Great North?
Gee, would that preempt Bob and Doug Mackenzie's Great White North?

 

[Hendryk]

Hokkaido became a part of Japan relatively late, however.

Which is part of my point--when Japan turns its attention to Alaska, the experience with Hokkaido would still be fresh. AFAIK Sapporo was turned from a village into a city only in the 1870s.

Great North?
Gee, would that preempt Bob and Doug Mackenzie's Great White North?

Oh, I don't think the existence of a quasi-homonym in another language would be any obstacle. But, yeah, I went with the most obvious name--it's big, it's up north, therefore Daikita.

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

People keep asking how will america react, but what about Canada, who is actually sharing the border. Someone said earlier that the border settlement between Alaska and Canada would be different and their probably right. The deal was a big stab in the back for Canada since for the settlement, America got three judges, Canada two, and Britain one, and the good ol'motherland sided with America for political reasons, and Canada just fumed.

Also, if some form of World War II breaks out, would the Americans just leave it to Canada, and if Canada did deal with it, would their be any chance for anexation. I wouldn't be surprised if Ottawa would be for annexation, since Canada didn't stop growing until after Newfoundland joined in 1949.

I don't know about the United States, but Canada was an absolute dick to the Japanese-Canadians during the war. Even when a police enquiry said they weren't a threat, we confiscated their fishing boats and other property (which was then sold off for well under their actual value), deported many and moved others to nasty internment camps in the interior. So if Canada did annex Alaska, the Japanese natives might not be so well treated. And even if Canada didn't annex Alaska, all those nasty things the government did to the Japanese-Canadians was out of fear of a (improbable) japanese invasion. With a Japanese Alaska at war with Canada,(if war did break out) expect the treatment of Japanese-Canadians to be much worse.

 

[formhian]

As for the name Alaska would have in that TL, it might be something along the lines of Daikita 太北. Just speculating--I don't speak Japanese, this is just an educated guess from the fact that kanji are interchangeable with Chinese characters.

This is random, but maybe a name like 大北荒 Daihokkou (Great Northern Wilderness).

What if the historical divergence was simply that the Lincoln assassination conspiracy succeeded in its entirety? The President, Vice President, and Seward would all be dead and Seward wouldn't be around to encourage or set up the Alaska purchase. The nation would be in the midst of reconstruction, trying to sort out the presidency, Schuyler Colfax would be President of the United States, and I think there is a non-negligible chance that Russia might have simply continued to lose money until seeding the territory (in terms of reduced financial ceding to Japan at the conclusion of the Russo-Japanese war).

 

[Homer]

The nation would be in the midst of reconstruction, trying to sort out the presidency, Schuyler Colfax would be President of the United States, and I think there is a non-negligible chance that Russia might have simply continued to lose money until seeding the territory (in terms of reduced financial ceding to Japan at the conclusion of the Russo-Japanese war).

I don't think that in 1905 the Japanese would get Alaska from Russia after the war. They won and still the US intervened to get favourable peace terms for Russia - and now you're supposing that the US would not only accept by far larger territorial gains by Japan in their backyard? I rather doubt that. Additionally, from the US point of view, I think it is by far more favourable to have the Russians in Alaska, not very interested in some lands even behind of the most eastward parts of Siberia, than to have the Japanese there, ready for colonization and eager to make use of their annexations.

Additionally, from a historical point of view, I'd say that a Timeline with Alaska 1905 firmly in Japanese hands with a substantial Japanese population by then and therefore the Japanese military with some experience on cold areas (think of campaignes in Siberia) is simply more interesting

 

[NapoleonXIV]

Great North?
Gee, would that preempt Bob and Doug Mackenzie's Great White North?

I get this sudden vision of two pubescent Japanese schoolgirls, interviewing rock stars and Japan's most prominent businessmen, and all the while extolling the virtues of Sapporo and how to stick a mouse inside a bottle so they'll give you free cases for life.