WI: Romney and Obama come to blows at Hofstra Debate?

mikegold · Oct 19, 2012

From conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer today:

"Fight night at Hofstra. The two boxers, confined within a ring of spectators — circling, feinting, taunting, staring each other down — come several times, by my reckoning, no more than one provocation away from actual fisticuffs, of the kind that on occasion so delightfully break out in the Taiwanese parliament. "

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/330893/great-gaffe-hofstra-charles-krauthammer

As has been widely reported and was clear from the video of the debate, Romney and Obama frequently entered each other's personal space, interrupted one another, and seemed to display real anger. Check these images:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/10/17/us/17debate_blog20/17debate_blog20-blog480.jpg
http://nyopoliticker.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/obama-romney-pointing-getty.jpg
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/121016_debate_fight_ap_605.jpg

So what if Governor Romney and President Obama came to actual blows at Hofstra? How does the Secret Service respond (restraining both men? Romney only?) How fast does it respond? How does this affect the election? American politics more broadly? The world at large?

AlfieJ · Oct 19, 2012

It would be absolutely hilarious.

Mike Stearns · Oct 19, 2012

It would be extremely unpresidential to say the least. but the media would beat it to death like a dead horse.

mowque · Oct 19, 2012

Who makes the first move?

vultan · Oct 19, 2012

What happens next in the campaign (the polls, etc.) really depends on who threw the first punch. The third debate is going to be very interesting.

Anyway, I'd expect higher-than-average numbers on voting day for third party candidates.

mikegold · Oct 19, 2012

vultan said:
What happens next in the campaign (the polls, etc.) really depends on who threw the first punch.

Not sure. They're both pretty thin-skinned but neither seems physically violent by nature. Obama is younger and more athletic, but Romney had a very dominant father and five alpha-male sons.

I think both scenarioes are worth considering.

LHB · Oct 19, 2012

AlfieJ said:
It would be absolutely hilarious.

It will be the most-watched video worldwide in about five minutes.

As for the impact it depends on what happens. If one of the two throws a punch before they all get restrained by the Secret Service that's going to go over VERY differently than if the two get into a full-on brawl in front of the camera.

New Deal Democrat · Oct 19, 2012

It would be the death knell of the United States. It would be impossible to have "calm" and "civility" in politics when the two party leaders come to blows. It comes down to who throws the first punch.

Meadow · Oct 19, 2012

The Taiwanese programme that makes 3D animations of the news would create its magnum opus, instantly surpassing Toy Story 2 as the greatest animated film of all time.

Dustin · Oct 19, 2012

the democratic and republican parties are thrown into upheaval and third parties win many seats in congress and the senate. both R's and D's blame eachother for the fight and riots occur in major cities and college campuses across the US. many of our allies try to distance themselves from us and eventually republican and democratic groups collide in a bloody battle in some swing state somewhere which is the death of the 2 party system as we know it.

the above statement is pure BS it would take something more major than the heads of our 2 parties fighting to cause something like this

Panzerfaust 150 · Oct 19, 2012

Well,
If we're going to treat this like a real fight, let's handicap it like one!

Romney: He's somewhat athletic, not afraid of anybody, he proved that getting in Obama's face in the first place, and honestly? He's got 20-25 pounds on Obama from the looks of it.

Obama: Obama's a beanpole, and the upper body strength is in serious question, as he did not impress a lot of baseball fans when he threw out the first pitch once at Nationals Park.

Advantage: Obama's got the speed to get in a quick left, but he's got a tell because he doesn't strike me as an experienced fellow, also when you get in a fight, first thing? You're gonna get hit. Sure as the sun coming up on the morning you will. Romney looks like he's built enough to take a hit, and then lay Obama out.

Now, how will this play in the polls? Badly for both. Both will be denounced as having embarrassed the republic and there will be all kinds of calls for civility on all sides. Though, it will probably make the partisanship MUCH nastier as well. In short? Things are still not much different than they are now, but voter enthusiasm in general takes a BIG hit.

mikegold · Oct 19, 2012

Panzerfaust 150 said:
Well,
If we're going to treat this like a real fight, let's handicap it like one!

Romney: He's somewhat athletic, not afraid of anybody, he proved that getting in Obama's face in the first place, and honestly? He's got 20-25 pounds on Obama from the looks of it.

Obama: Obama's a beanpole, and the upper body strength is in serious question, as he did not impress a lot of baseball fans when he threw out the first pitch once at Nationals Park.

Advantage: Obama's got the speed to get in a quick left, but he's got a tell because he doesn't strike me as an experienced fellow, also when you get in a fight, first thing? You're gonna get hit. Sure as the sun coming up on the morning you will. Romney looks like he's built enough to take a hit, and then lay Obama out.

Now, how will this play in the polls? Badly for both. Both will be denounced as having embarrassed the republic and there will be all kinds of calls for civility on all sides. Though, it will probably make the partisanship MUCH nastier as well. In short? Things are still not much different than they are now, but voter enthusiasm in general takes a BIG hit.

I have to agree; even though Romney is about fourteen years older than Obama, he seems like he's very fit and might be a tougher opponent. I know O plays basketball, among other sports; I assume that Romney jogs and probably plays squash and/or racquetball. Both golf.

Does anyone know what the Secret Service procedure would actually be, when two people under their protection come into physical conflict? I know a major-party nominee gets a detail, but one imagines the President gets priority. How fast could they break up the fight?

SRegan · Oct 19, 2012

As mentioned, it does rather come down to who starts the fight. If Romney, for whatever reason, completely loses his mind and physically assaults the President of the United States, he's likely to be taken down and put in handcuffs by the Secret Service (with his own detail immediately standing down), and the Republican Party loses any hope of winning the election. If Obama is largely uninjured he would presumably have to be seen as gracious and not press charges; a more serious injury would potentially force the Republican Party to withdraw Romney's nomination (unprecedented in electoral history?).

Obama striking first is more interesting - hard to say whether it would be more damaging for the President if Romney hit back or not. Failing to counter would be seen as passive on Romney's part - but could also be considered a mature or even, from the Religious Right's perspective, Christ-like response to a thuggish Commander-in-Chief. If Romney does retaliate it would likely be reported as a 'brawl between the candidates' rather than an 'act of violence against the person of the President'.

I very much doubt there would be time for more than a blow and counter-blow before security personnel separate the two - the way they are restrained is likely to shape how it affects the election narrative when it appears in print/online. Both candidates restrained at the arms gives the feeling of equal participation (regardless of who hit first or hardest) and could be shaped as either ideology boiling over or both candidates shaming the Republic. Romney restrained with a hostile expression and the President given room or receiving medical attention is likely to hurt the Republican party most, even if Obama hit first. Romney left unattended (perhaps kneeling or prone) while a Secret Serviceman stands between them, or even pulling the President back with physical contact, is obviously most damaging to the President.

Beedok · Oct 19, 2012

Our government ends up seeming like a model of decorum.

Noravea · Oct 19, 2012

Obama hits first, Romney doesn't hit back: If Obama hits first, and Romney doesn't hit back, it'll be all over for Obama. The Romney Campaign would likely slam the President for unpresidential behavior, and the third debate will probably be cancelled because of Romney not wanting to be in the same room as the President. It'll still be close, but I think it'll ultimately be in Romney's favor.

Obama hits first, Romney hits back: Obama hits Romney first. Romney hits him back right away. Puts the President in an even more serious disadvantage, and Romney can probably be seen as someone who will "Strike back with equivalent force" in a situation. Romney is seen as someone who wont take shit from people, and will win in a semi-large landslide.

Romney hits first, Obama doesn't hit back: Romney hits Obama. Obama doesn't hit back. Media spins this out of control as many claim it was racism, etc... Romney loses in a landslide, but there will still be people calling Obama a wimp for not hitting back.

Romney hits first, Obama hits back: Romney hits Obama, followed by Obama knocking Romney out. Both are called unpresidential, but Obama will ultimately pull through, but some people might attack Obama for punching an "Old Man".

Either way, it'll be torn apart by the media, and anything that happens would only last a few seconds because of the Secret Service. Either way, the media would be observing the shit out of it, and it'll be mentioned non-stop until election day.

President Al Bundy · Oct 19, 2012

HBO would sell it on pay-per-view for 39.95$. But both candidates will receive more or less the same amount of votes than before, giving one party the idea to nominate Mike Tyson for the presidency. After all, it seems to be enough to be a good boxer.

jkarr · Oct 19, 2012

civil war!
Civil War!
CIVIL WAR!

...i can dream right>?

in all seriousness it depends who threw the first punch and itll probaly, like others said, be broadcast everywhere, but i doubt very much itll cause a major surge in 3rd party popularity at the polls....american politics will always be a two party system until people over there (not all, but a majority) grow brains

Beedok · Oct 19, 2012

How about if one of them gets too close to the other, so the second one tries to gently nudge the other back, this gets misunderstood or the push is accidentally a bit harder and then the other responds so that the instigator is debatable?

Garrison · Oct 19, 2012

Well if after a couple of sharp blows Romney throws up his hands and admits; "All right the tax plan won't work, it was all a sham!" that might be really interesting...

SRegan · Oct 19, 2012

Beedok said:
How about if one of them gets too close to the other, so the second one tries to gently nudge the other back, this gets misunderstood or the push is accidentally a bit harder and then the other responds so that the instigator is debatable?

This. I think it's highly unlikely that a blow would actually be thrown out of the blue, and security might well break it up before the candidates even get to the stage of throwing punches. You could plausibly have a scenario where you have an initial nudge and a counter-shove, the candidates are restrained, and the debate either continues or is suspended. Cue intense media discussion of 'Shovegate' and who was to blame, where the same comparisons to countries with more aggressive debates are made.