The Cold War was a complex era with a lot going on, so I am going to work on really simplified and perhaps not 100% parallelisms here. A very simplified examination of the cold war leads me to observe 3 big phenoma:
1. In small global conflicts accross mainly the third world, the US was losing ground on almost every front. It lost the Vietnam War, it was unable to stop the Sandinista takeover of Nicaragua, it was unable to stop the MPLA takeover of Angola, The Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba failed, etc... OBviously there were excpetions, the biggest and most decisive being Afghanistan, but I'd argue that the general pattern was the west was losing ground globally
2. The entire imperialist block was united behind the unquestioned leadership of the USA, whilst the socialist block was disunited. While most notably France had a couple of spats with the US, and even left NATO briefly, there was nothing in the western block anywhere close to be compared with the Sino-Soviet split, the Stalin-Tito split, or Albanias split with everyone. Despite some disagreements, ultimately, the US had the entire capitalist world firmly under its control.
3. The USSR was dismantlted politically by Gorbachev and Yelstin, whilst the US never had any such sabetours.
So, what would the world look like if these three things were reversed? I shall describe the main outline of the PODs between this world and ours, and I would be curious to hear what you'd all thing this world would end up looking like.
1. The US succeeds in all its major third world operations. The US wins in Vietnam, it avoids the Sandinista takeover, it succesfully deposes Castro, UNITA wins the Angolan civil war, etc
2. There is no Sino-Soviet split, no Tito-Stalin split, and Hoxha doesn't do his own thing. The entire socialist block is firmly united behind the USSR. On the other hand, lets say Britain and France, as the formal great colonial powers, fall out of line with the US. I think a good POD for this could be the Suez crisis. OTL this served as the final nail in the coffin of european "independence" in foreign affairs, and confirmed for the entire world US dominion over the former colonial overlords. What is the UK and France, angered and humiliated, go their own way? As the PRC OTL fought both the US imperialists, and the Soviet "social imperisliasts", so to ITL would the UK and France view as equal threats both the Soviet Communists, and the American "anticolonialsts". The UK and France would leave NATO, and centre their foreign policy on preserving their empires, combatting independence movements, and vying for control over the "free world".
3. By the 90s, despite no big military defeat or economic collapse, lets say US leadership ultimately capitulates to the Soviets. What could this capitulation look like? It wouldnt be an exact parrallel to the USSRs collapse, but I can certainly see the US letting go of Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and the remainder of their pacific and caribbean territories. I can see the government ceding ground to a much stronger Black Panthers movement, basically granting them all concessions they could ask for. And if you wanna go really extreme with the collapse, maybe Texas or the South in general attmempting to secede? idk. And, just as in OTL China survives the collapse of the USSR, lets say in this world, capitalist UK and France survive the collapse of the US.
So, within these parameters, what do you guys think this world looks like? What would this cold war look like, with the US succeeding globally, but competing with the Europeans as well as the soviets? What is the fate of Angola, Cuba, Nicaragua, Vietnam etc after the collapse of the US? What is the fate of the UK and France?
Any and all thoughts are welcome!
1. In small global conflicts accross mainly the third world, the US was losing ground on almost every front. It lost the Vietnam War, it was unable to stop the Sandinista takeover of Nicaragua, it was unable to stop the MPLA takeover of Angola, The Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba failed, etc... OBviously there were excpetions, the biggest and most decisive being Afghanistan, but I'd argue that the general pattern was the west was losing ground globally
2. The entire imperialist block was united behind the unquestioned leadership of the USA, whilst the socialist block was disunited. While most notably France had a couple of spats with the US, and even left NATO briefly, there was nothing in the western block anywhere close to be compared with the Sino-Soviet split, the Stalin-Tito split, or Albanias split with everyone. Despite some disagreements, ultimately, the US had the entire capitalist world firmly under its control.
3. The USSR was dismantlted politically by Gorbachev and Yelstin, whilst the US never had any such sabetours.
So, what would the world look like if these three things were reversed? I shall describe the main outline of the PODs between this world and ours, and I would be curious to hear what you'd all thing this world would end up looking like.
1. The US succeeds in all its major third world operations. The US wins in Vietnam, it avoids the Sandinista takeover, it succesfully deposes Castro, UNITA wins the Angolan civil war, etc
2. There is no Sino-Soviet split, no Tito-Stalin split, and Hoxha doesn't do his own thing. The entire socialist block is firmly united behind the USSR. On the other hand, lets say Britain and France, as the formal great colonial powers, fall out of line with the US. I think a good POD for this could be the Suez crisis. OTL this served as the final nail in the coffin of european "independence" in foreign affairs, and confirmed for the entire world US dominion over the former colonial overlords. What is the UK and France, angered and humiliated, go their own way? As the PRC OTL fought both the US imperialists, and the Soviet "social imperisliasts", so to ITL would the UK and France view as equal threats both the Soviet Communists, and the American "anticolonialsts". The UK and France would leave NATO, and centre their foreign policy on preserving their empires, combatting independence movements, and vying for control over the "free world".
3. By the 90s, despite no big military defeat or economic collapse, lets say US leadership ultimately capitulates to the Soviets. What could this capitulation look like? It wouldnt be an exact parrallel to the USSRs collapse, but I can certainly see the US letting go of Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and the remainder of their pacific and caribbean territories. I can see the government ceding ground to a much stronger Black Panthers movement, basically granting them all concessions they could ask for. And if you wanna go really extreme with the collapse, maybe Texas or the South in general attmempting to secede? idk. And, just as in OTL China survives the collapse of the USSR, lets say in this world, capitalist UK and France survive the collapse of the US.
So, within these parameters, what do you guys think this world looks like? What would this cold war look like, with the US succeeding globally, but competing with the Europeans as well as the soviets? What is the fate of Angola, Cuba, Nicaragua, Vietnam etc after the collapse of the US? What is the fate of the UK and France?
Any and all thoughts are welcome!
