WI: Pre-Emptive Strike | USA vs North Korea

[GlobalHumanism]

It's 2015 and the US and South Korea, tired of Kim Jong Un's human rights abuses, decides to launch a preemptive invasion of the DPRK under the shield of NATO.

The goal is to topple Un and establish democracy

(Operation Korean Freedom)

What happens next? Can it be successful? Will Un use Nukes? Will Koreans be hostile to the invaders? What if Japanese defense forces are used?

 

[Thesaurus Rex]

China is going to be notably unhappy with this turn of events.

 

[Hashoosh]

China is going to be notably unhappy with this turn of events.

Mildly displeased

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

It's 2015 and the US and South Korea, tired of Kim Jong Un's human rights abuses, decides to launch a preemptive invasion of the DPRK under the shield of NATO.

The goal is to topple Un and establish democracy

(Operation Korean Freedom)

What happens next? Can it be successful?

It would obviously be successful, but it would never happen because the Chinese wouldn't like it.

 

[GSpectre]

Just about the only way i could see it working would be if you convinced the Chinese it would be in there best interest to let it go ahead. To do that you would probably have to let them decide the fate of north korea and i can't see that being acceptable to anyone..

Although they might accept it if it came with a Korean/US decoupling, but i don't see a way to garantee that would occur they would accept or to do it.

 

[viperzero]

China and North Korea have been having a behind the scenes spat the last few years. its unclear just how bad it is but it seems China might be considering North Korea a national security threat in someway. so it might be possible to get them to go along with this if they are brought in.

 

[takerma]

You much bigger problem is that South Korea will not want to have ANYTHING to do with it. I don't think there is any conceivable way you can get South to mobilize and invade over the DMZ

 

[viperzero]

they almost started a shooting war in 2010 after North Korean provocations

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-gates-south-korea-airstrike-north-korea-2014-1

so i wouldn't rule it out

 

[Hashoosh]

Just about the only way i could see it working would be if you convinced the Chinese it would be in there best interest to let it go ahead. To do that you would probably have to let them decide the fate of north korea and i can't see that being acceptable to anyone..

Although they might accept it if it came with a Korean/US decoupling, but i don't see a way to garantee that would occur they would accept or to do it.

Well that's also a very good reason for the US to accept the status quo, as it guarentees an ally in South Korea. If you remove the NoKos, what reason do the South Koreans have for not going their own way?

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Just about the only way i could see it working would be if you convinced the Chinese it would be in there best interest to let it go ahead. To do that you would probably have to let them decide the fate of north korea and i can't see that being acceptable to anyone..

Although they might accept it if it came with a Korean/US decoupling, but i don't see a way to garantee that would occur they would accept or to do it.

Say the Chinese aren't consulted and the USA and/or South Korea go it alone.

Repercussions?

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Say the Chinese aren't consulted and the USA and/or South Korea go it alone.

Repercussions?

Millions of dead Koreans, thousands of dead Americans. Potential nuclear strikes on South Korean and/or Japanese cities from North Korea. The total breakdown of US-China relations, sending 40 years of careful diplomacy down the toilet and limiting cooperation and trade agreements between the world's two largest economies.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

It will be impossible for the US and South Korea to hide the requisite military build-up. The Norks will not miss this and act accordingly... absolute worst case is they launch a pre-emptive strike. Now there is absolutely no conceivable way the North Koreans can win either way, given the gross imbalance in the correlation of forces, but they can do a ton of damage before they go down.

And what would they get out of it once it was all over, aside from the death and destruction? The answer is the world's largest humanitarian disaster and an absolute lead wait on their economic systems? Sure, you can argue all you want about how horrible the Nork government is but as the Iraqi experience has taught us, tossing an invasion into such a horrendous situation is the opposite of an improvement.

 

[Thesaurus Rex]

Millions of dead Koreans, thousands of dead Americans. Potential nuclear strikes on Korean and/or Japanese cities from North Korea. The total breakdown of US-China relations, sending 40 years of careful diplomacy down the toilet and guaranteeing that the world's richest country will view us as an enemy for decades to come.

Oh god, not Liechtenstein!



*EDIT* Oh, you edited your post just in time. That was quick.

 

[CthulhuFhtagn]

Oh god, not Liechtenstein!



*EDIT* Oh, you edited your post just in time. That was quick.

Yeah, I recognized my mistake right after making the post. But a US-Liechtenstein Cold War sounds kind of fun.

 

[Blurgle]

Yeah, I recognized my mistake right after making the post. But a US-Liechtenstein Cold War sounds kind of fun.

You know, when I think of fiction that correctly predicted the future, "The Mouse That Roared" usually doesn't come to mind.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Millions of dead Koreans, thousands of dead Americans. Potential nuclear strikes on South Korean and/or Japanese cities from North Korea. The total breakdown of US-China relations, sending 40 years of careful diplomacy down the toilet and limiting cooperation and trade agreements between the world's two largest economies.

Millions? Come on. Why would the North Korean army, even with an angry Un trying to force them to do so, nuke there own peninsula? The fallout would literally exterminate their own families.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Why would the North Korean army, even with an angry Un trying to force them to do so, nuke there own peninsula?

Why should the senior North Korean leadership care? They saw what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam. They are well aware that the only fate that awaits them in the event of their loss of power is death. They would be men with literally nothing left to lose and plenty of spite against those who put them in this situation.

The fallout would literally exterminate their own families.

Leaving aside that this is a gross exaggeration of the lethality of fallout, the prevailing winds would likely either blow out over the Japanese islands and Pacific towards the United States. Which is largely a bonus, as far as the North Koreans are concerned.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Why should the senior North Korean leadership care? They saw what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam. They are well aware that the only fate that awaits them in the event of their loss of power is death. They would be men with literally nothing left to lose and plenty of spite against those who put them in this situation.

Leaving aside that this is a gross exaggeration of the lethality of fallout, the prevailing winds would likely either blow out over the Japanese islands and Pacific towards the United States. Which is largely a bonus, as far as the North Koreans are concerned.

Because somehow the winds are controllable by the Peoples Army?

And if given the option the Top Generals the North Korean army, who typically love to surround themselves with western luxury goods and foreign prostitutes would sooner flee to asylum in China then die gloriously next to Un in a bunker in Pyongyang. And of course any nuking of Seoul would make this impossible.

 

[Napoleon IV]

Because somehow the winds are controllable by the Peoples Army?

And if given the option the Top Generals the North Korean army, who typically love to surround themselves with western luxury goods and foreign prostitutes would sooner flee to asylum in China then die gloriously next to Un in a bunker in Pyongyang. And of course any nuking of Seoul would make this impossible.

That is the way the winds generally flow. And the North Koreans actually would rather die than surrender. If they flee or surrender they will spend the rest of their lives being hunted down, and at the mercy of the Chinese. And besides many are no doubt true believers who can't imagine a world without North Korea.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Because somehow the winds are controllable by the Peoples Army?

No, because that is how the prevailing winds actually blow in that region.

And if given the option the Top Generals the North Korean army, who typically love to surround themselves with western luxury goods and foreign prostitutes would sooner flee to asylum in China then die gloriously next to Un in a bunker in Pyongyang.

Their too closely associated with the Kim family to manage that. How many of Saddam's inner-circle escaped his fall and lived in exile in luxury? How many of Qaddafi's? Why would the Chinese take in men they have no use for? How would they manage to escape before a collapse without being caught and executed by North Korean security services? Not to mention we can expect only the most fanatically loyal North Korean troops to be manning any of the ballistic missile batteries entrusted with nuclear warheads. These are men whose very survival is tied to the regime they control and work under. If the regime falls, so too do their lives.

In any case, the Norks don't need nuclear ordinance to cause mass casualties. The Seoul metropolitan area is within artillery range and North Korea has more then 12,000 artillery tube and rocket artillery pieces.