WI:Portugal joins the allies?

[dianaswordofsappho]

What if in World War Two Portugal had joined the allies? Multiple things could cause this such as a brittish call to arm or other factors leading to the brittish calling them to aid

My question is assuming that Portugal joins the allies what will Spain do in response to this? Will Spain join the axis in retaliation for this?

 

[Montgomerie Ward]

Portugal was allied to Britain through a very old treaty and when Japan invaded East Timor, Portugal technically joined the Allies as a co-belligerent.

Francisco Franco did have ambitions to add Portugal and French North Africa to his future Spanish Empire, but did not because of how badly wartorn Spain was. Even Hitler wouldn't give him French North Africa, because a puppet French state was more of an asset than a rebuilding Spain. So for these reasons, I believe Spain stays neutral. Britain and France were eager to overthrow Franco after World War II, so joining the Axis would give them all the more reason to try.

 

[Lalli]

Why Portugal would join? And it bit depends in which point of the war Portugal jumps to the war. But Spain probably doesn't care any shit. Franco was wise enough that jumping to Axis would be hellish suicidal when Spain was still recovering from civil war and was very dependent from food and medical supplies of United Kingdom and United States.

 

[Marc]

Also, Portugal was under the rule of the Estado Novo since 1933 - your classical neo-fascist state. While not enamored of Nazi Germany, it happily did business with them until pressured to stop around 1944.

 

[yulzari]

The Allies preferred Portugal as a benevolent neutral. It cost nothing to support them and was a vital place to disseminate misinformation to Axis Intelligence.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
Francisco Franco did have ambitions to add Portugal and French North Africa to his future Spanish Empire, but did not because of how badly wartorn Spain was. Even Hitler wouldn't give him French North Africa, because a puppet French state was more of an asset than a rebuilding Spain. So for these reasons, I believe Spain stays neutral. Britain and France were eager to overthrow Franco after World War II, so joining the Axis would give them all the more reason to try.

I don't know what Francos thoughts on this were, but there were a faction within the coalition of parties Franco rode herd on who did think Portugal should be conquered. Conversely there was another faction opposed.

'Lisbon: War in the Shadows of the City of Light, 1939-1945' by Neil Lochery describes briefly Spains attitude. He also reviews the Salazars governments plans. thats is remove the government and navy to the Azores. Since most of the army was in the colonies anyway there was not much to evacuate. From 1941 the US had updated its war plan for Spain. The occupation of the Azores & select other Atlantic islands was rehearsed by the US Atlantic fleet.

Portugal itself had the bulk of the Wolfram row which benefits the Axis. Other wise its colonies are still a asset, tho small, for the Allies. Use of the Azores helps the Allie in the battle of the Atlantic a bit. Later the Allies aim a lot of deception and diversionary operations at Portugal, to draw Axis forces away from the main event in NW Europe. Maybe a combined Britsh/Portuguse corps lands and captures a port there in early 1944?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The Allies preferred Portugal as a benevolent neutral. It cost nothing to support them and was a vital place to disseminate misinformation to Axis Intelligence.

The economic war carried on in Iberia had a cost to the Allies, but it was a lot cheaper than trying to operate a couple armies in the region.

 

[James Ricker]

I doubt Spain would join the axis.
It would not be in Germany's best interest to have Spain join the axis and start a second front with Germany focusing all its attention on the Soviet Union.
What would happen is Portugal would allow anti-submarine patrols to be flown out of its territory. Closing the Mid-Atlantic gap quicker than an our time.

 

[Lusitania]

Ok. Any attack on Portugal by Spain would of triggered the treaty with Britain which is the british oldest treaty. It would of also caused Spain to be cut off by the US for all its oil and a large portion of its corn and other food. The attack on the Iberian Portugal would of been followed by allied attacks on Spain colonies in Africa and cut off both the canaries and barleric islands from Spainish government.

Salazar has a good relationship with Franco and the Portuguese government was praised by the British government for its efforts in maintaining the Spanish neutral.

While Portugal did trade with Axis, só too did other neutral countries such as Sweden, Switzerland and Spain. The Spanish government sent thousands of people to work under harsh terms in Germany, supplied aprox 30,000 soldiers (volunteers) to attack Soviets.

So the Portuguese as neutrals provided a huge benefit to the Allies. Attempt to cut off the Wolfrom from Germany would of resulted in additional pressure on Spain which as had large wolfrom deposits to join the axis or face invasion.

 

[Simon]

The economic war carried on in Iberia had a cost to the Allies, but it was a lot cheaper than trying to operate a couple armies in the region.

This and similar in other countries like Turkey was very effective, does anyone know of any decent sources which cover these preclusive purchasing operations?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Ellis touches on it in 'Brute Force' but IIRC lacks any depth. He illustrates the trend in a few major examples and moves on.

 

[Nagisaki]

IIRC, they offered to a few times, but Britain told them not to.

 

[AdA]

Portugal had gained nothing from joinning WW1. The lesson stuck.
That said, if Portugal enters the war that gives the allies a chance to base ASW aircraft in the Azores, something that had been done in WW1 and was a no brainer. Once they started to sink U-Boote the Germans would put a lot of pressure on Spain to cooperate with an invasion of Portugal (a plan was prepared OTL). The thing is that depending on when it happens, Portugal would allow the allies to deploy some forces in Europe, in a place with some good defensive lines. Since the Germans needed all the troops they could get for Barbarossa, Portugal would be a good place to lure them into. Even with mostly Spanish forces, the Germans would still have to provide most of the logistic support.

 

[elkarlo]

Would be a waste. Until late 42 Portugal would be wary of sudden German and or Spanish attacks. This would tie down Wallied assets in protecting Portugal from such threats. Would be a net drain outside of the azores imho

 

[Hammerbolt]

Biggest issue: when?

But ok, let's play this. Portugal joins in. I see two possibities:

1st possibility:

-this finally tips Spain into joining axis, or be trapped between the two sides. Spain then, with German assistance, invades and ocupies at least part of Portugal, certainly Lisboa, Porto and the coastal areas (and, in passing, ocupy Gibraltar); I don't think allies could send help in time, unless the Portuguese declaration is prepared waaaay in advance.
-Portuguese government evacuates to the Açores (this plan existed) where it holes up waiting for allied assitance;
-thanks to this, and the spanish colonies in North Africa, axis now has complete power over the entrance of the Med, efectivelly blocking any support of Malta via the Atlantic; it also has access to excelent ports for it's submarines to enter the Atlantic, efectively out of reach of UK-based air attack;
-Portuguese tungsteen now never stops flowing into Germany.

2nd possibility:

-Spain, mindfull of the fact that most if it's oil and grain comes from the US, decides to join the allies as well, trusting that the Pyrenees will hold off German retaliation long enough for the allies to reinforce them. Portugal would probably send infantry and whatever artilery we had to help in this, since it would be in our best interest. Mountains are not exactly tank country, so no Blitzkrieg would happen there;
-this would give the allies a jumping point into France, possibly resulting in no Normandy invasion. Instead, the combined allied army could "roll down the mountains" right into France. But this would depend on how much of the mountain passes Spain could hold on to, before help arrives;
-Germany would take over Vichy France with weeks, to prevent any "funy ideas" from the joint France/Spain border;
-full naval allied access to the Med, supported by air based in Spain and Portugal (both for attack and anti-sub cover), greatly relieving North Africa and Malta, and putting extra preassure on Italy and the french colonies.

 

[nbcman]

Portugal was allied to Britain through a very old treaty and when Japan invaded East Timor, Portugal technically joined the Allies as a co-belligerent.

Francisco Franco did have ambitions to add Portugal and French North Africa to his future Spanish Empire, but did not because of how badly wartorn Spain was. Even Hitler wouldn't give him French North Africa, because a puppet French state was more of an asset than a rebuilding Spain. So for these reasons, I believe Spain stays neutral. Britain and France were eager to overthrow Franco after World War II, so joining the Axis would give them all the more reason to try.

The Japanese were the second to invade East Timor. The British, Dutch and Australians invaded first in December 1941 to forestall a Japanese invasion. The Japanese didn't invade until February 1942 and they alleged that they attacked East Timor in self-defense. Portugal did not declare war on anyone during WW2.

 

[Lusitania]

The Japanese were the second to invade East Timor. The British, Dutch and Australians invaded first in December 1941 to forestall a Japanese invasion. The Japanese didn't invade until February 1942 and they alleged that they attacked East Timor in self-defense. Portugal did not declare war on anyone during WW2.

The Portuguese made plans to move troops from Mozambique to Timor but logistics and capacity prevented them from moving troops till the Japanese were already on the island.

 

[Simon]

Ellis touches on it in Brute Force but IIRC lacks any depth. He illustrates the trend in a few major examples and moves on.

Think I have a copy of that somewhere so will have to take a look. I'm surprised it hasn't received greater coverage anywhere, even in the more academic sources.

Spain, mindfull of the fact that most of its oil and grain comes from the US, decides to join the allies as well...

Why does Franco jump in on the Allied side just because Salazar has led Portugal to? From the Allies point of view a neutral Spain is more attractive to them so they certainly wouldn't be putting any pressure on them to join.

 

[Dingus Khan]

I think that if Portugal decided to join WW2, which would obviously weaken their military, they would consequently lose control over their overseas colonies even earlier than they did in OTL.

 

[Cockroach]

The somewhat cynical take? They join the allies late '44, when it's clear the Germans are utterly on the ropes. A token fighter squadron or two go to the front and Portuguese navy contributes a few vessels to escort duty in the Atlantic.