WI Poland invaded in 1939...by the USSR?

Ace Venom

The date is October 16, 1938. The Nazis had just played on their diplomatic victory and annexed the Sudetenland the day before. But while Berlin was abuzz, the mood in the Kremlin was like that of a funeral. Stalin knew in his heart that the West was strengthening Germany to use as a weapon against the Soviet Union. Hitler's anticommunist rhetoric combined with the West's efforts to appease the Nazi dictator only served to heightened Stalin's paranoia.

Stalin couldn't allow Hitler to strengthen his Reich any longer and just wait for the deathblow. He had to act soon or everything the revolution had fought for would be lost to the Western capitalists. Stalin planned to call his generals together to draw up plans for a war that would give him the quickest access to Germany: a war against Poland and the Baltic States.

On February 1, 1939, it all began. The Red Army invaded Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland while issuing a declaration of war against Germany. The Wehrmact is put on high alert and moved across the Polish border, the Luftwaffe takes to the air and the Kriegsmarine heads for the Baltic Sea. The Nazi-Soviet War is on.

Keep in mind that this is before Hitler ordered the occupation for the Czech rump state and long before Anglo-French guarantees on Polish independence. Hitler has sympathy in the West thanks to the fact that Stalin is the aggressor.

In this messed up world, who will be the victor?

Note: I was too lazy to make a timeline at this hour, but might be persuaded to do one. I just want to pose the question at this point.
 

aktarian

Stalin though war with Germany will be fought in mid-1940s. Prior to that he wanted to avoid war at all cost.
 

Roland Wolf

If the Red Army is in about the same state that in OTL Finland invasion or I suspect in some ways worse, then they will have the mother of all nightmares on hand. The most important reasons for that are: Leadership and transport.
Leadership: In the 1930`s Stalin got it in his head that the officer corps of the Red Army, many of them ex-Tsarist officers an recruited by Trotsky, were a threat to him. In typical Stalin-style he killed every officer of cornel rank and above and many below that. That did killed initiative (don`t! stand! out!) and a lot of experience. That showed in Finland very badly. Such an army would have great difficulites absorbing the lessons needed learning about a more modern style of warfare.
Transport: Before western aid gave the USSR a lot of trucks transport was mostly effected by rail. Since the 1506 mm rails end in eastern Poland and the 1432 mm start there there things would have gotten quite bad soon enough. This is the kind of problem you can tackle with good staff work, flexible thinking and a lot of work. Stalin had just killed two indrigends to that solution.
My best guess is that it would have been a more infantry-heavy combat witrh initial gains by the USSR. Sooner or later they would have worked themselves in a couple of kill-sacks (Try telling your commisar about protecting your flanks or getting ahead of the rest-best of luck next reincarnation). From there on it is a question on how much support Germany gets from the west. Don`t rule that out too easily-by that time Hitler isn`t the seen as that bad.
 

wkwillis

The interesting thing is that the European establishments were desperate to get into a war with Russia before they finished rearming in 1940 something. If Stalin had invaded Poland, they would have invoked their treaties to bring them into the war to defend Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania. They weren't willing to defend the Czechs and their occupation of the Sudetenland if it involved them in a war with Germany, but a war with Russia was a whole nother story.
The French and British send their air force to attack Russia from German bases, Germany invades Poland after a few weeks to mobilize and after the Russians have captured all the Poles they didn't want, and just defended the Curzon line.
Then the rest of Europe would try to stay out. Perhaps they would succeed. The Balkans form another defence alliance? Scandianvia too? The Czechs would use loss of the Sudetenland as an excuse to stay out. The Balkan Federation and the Union of Kalmar stay out and build up their armed forces cheaply and thoroughly. Not sure about Rumania and Yugoslavia.
After a few years of war the Sudetenland people might be regretting the union with Germany as the Czechs sell armaments to both sides and get all the profit and none of the cost.
Britain, Italy, and France spend money (but not infantry lives) to protect against Russian submarines and bombers, while Communist agents blow up critical factories and lead strikes. America reports the news on page three.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I don't think the Soviets would declare war on Germany without deploying a major offensive against Germany, and before the Polish campaign the Soviets and Germans had no common border. Taking Lithuania will give a border to East Prussia, but I would hate to rely on such a little strip of land for a major offensive.

Rolling over Poland to get to Germany will only have France and UK join tha anti-Soviet side and anyway the Poles could fully mobilised field more than 30 Divisions. Considering how much trouble the Finns gave with their 9 Divisions in the Winter war 1939-40 a Soviet campaign into Poland could develop into a nightmare.

If a Soviet attack in 1939 is to happen, I believe some diplomacy will be needed. The French did try to talk the Soviets into more actively joining the anti-Hitler job, and here we could have them succeed, which I believe mainly will mean having talked the Poles and Czechoslovaks into allowing Soviet trops on their territory. A French communist dominated government probably the most important PoD.

In this scenario I think the British will be very hesitant to join the French-Russian Red Pact as two major communist powers controlling all of the continental Europe is even worse than Hitler body snatching some obscure small countries here and there.

By 1939 the Soviets would have some 200+ Divisions available, and although not as good as later (no T-34's or KV-1's) the Germans were far below their later norm too (I guess not much above 100 Divisions, but numbers were rising quickly), so I guess a Soviet planner could believe that an offensive was possible, if the necessary diplomacy is in place. The Germans will be frightfully outnumbered, especially if the Poles, Czechoslovaks and French join actively. By early 1939 the French were far less prepared for war than in 1940, with practically no modern planes in service, but the Poles and Czechoslovaks would if mobilsied be close to alone matching what the Germans can deploy in the east after a covering force against France has been left in the west.

So initially the Soviets, Poles and Czechoslovaks will advance well into Germany, perhaps reaching Berlin and/or Munich, but I doubt they have the logistical set-up to run over Germany before the Germans have organised an effective defense. And as long as the Ruhr is on German hands they have a good chance of keeping their armies equipped, and I even believe the British will sell them what else they need. The French will try to blockade Germany, but will have to include all of Scandinavia, as supplies could easily be brought to Germany from there. That could very well have the Scandinavians join the German side (spurred by the British). If wise the French realise that they don't have the force to effectively blockade Germany anyway, and so avoid provocing the Scandinavians.

The best hope of the Red Pact would be a political collapse in Germany, which can't be entirely ruled out (never can anywhere), but I don't find it likely. Red hordes invading is just about the best factor to create cohesiveness in 1939 Germany.

Italy's and Japan's positions will be interesting. Italy had in November 37 joined the German-Japanese anti-Comintern pact from 36, but the pact was not yet an alliance obliging the signifiers to join each others wars. Japan joining a war againt the Soviets will put them at the mercy of a uncommitted British Empire, and I doubt the British will "pay" the Japanese with French colonies as they did with German ditto in WWI. I think Japan will stay neutral, at least initially, and instead focus on China

Italy was by this time well into the German camp, but I guess they will also here wait to join actively until things appear less risky - i.e. in this TL if/when the Germans have stopped the Soviet/Polish/Czechoslovak offensive. In the meantime they will provide another way over which to keep Germany supplied and the French will have to provide considerable covering forces, not at least naval (making the blockade of Germany even more impossible).

All in all this scenario could end with the Nazis and Fascists consolidated in power by early 40's and with no effective coalition against them. The next war will come when Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo feels prepared to go for world supremacy. We must just hope that USA is out of the depression by then, otherwise it will not be you/us eating Hamburgers and Frankfurters, but the Hamburgers and Frankfurters sucking the blood out of you/us!

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Ace Venom

But didn't Poland have a pact with Germany at one point? If I recall, Poland grabbed some Czechoslovak territory in 1938 (including Teschen). The Poles won't allow the Red Army to march through their territory. If I also recall correctly, German demands on the Polish Corridor and Danzig weren't made until March. So, Poland has no reason to attack Germany or even allow the Soviets to march through their country unopposed. Poland will fight against the Red Army, no matter what political developments take place in France. The Polish Armed Forces may actually give the Red Army a hard time with Luftwaffe support before the Wehrmacht comes charging in for the counterattack.

How would the Baltic States hold out? There's going to be definite resistance depending on how quickly the Red Army can overrun them. By the time the Red Army reaches the border of East Prussia, they're going to start facing heavy resistance. Just remember that Germany hasn't made a move to claim Memel yet in TTL, so the Lithuanians have little reason to hate the Germans, unless the SS starts wreaking havoc.

I personally expect the Red Army advance to go through the Baltic States and Eastern Poland without too many problems before the Wehrmacht launches a massive counterattack that will either stabilize the front or push the Soviets back. Either way, I expect the Soviet campaign in Poland to turn into a massive nightmare once the Wehrmacht shows up and blitzkrieg tactics are tested against the poorly led Red Army.
 

Brilliantlight

Banned
The Russians are in deep, deep trouble. Unlike my 1940 scenario the Germans are not mostly fighting in France but are still in Germany. They don't have to turn around a massive army that is under fire but can just go straight to the front line. The West would see the USSR as the agressor and thus back Germany. The Nazi army is much better then the Red Army and the Luftwaffe is much better then the Red Air Force.
 

Brilliantlight

Banned
JimmyJimJam said:
I have a hard time picturing the West ever backing Hitler.
Click to expand...

Politics are strange bedfellows. Hitler's anti-Communist rhetoric and the fact that he would be seen as a victim in this case would probably swing it. It would probably be covert support but I think it would be there.
 

JimmyJimJam

Brilliantlight said:
Politics are strange bedfellows. Hitler's anti-Communist rhetoric and the fact that he would be seen as a victim in this case would probably swing it. It would probably be covert support but I think it would be there.
Click to expand...

Arent we assuming that the western allies are already at war with Germany at this point, though?
 

Ace Venom

JimmyJimJam said:
Arent we assuming that the western allies are already at war with Germany at this point, though?
Click to expand...

In TTL, no. I have put the Soviet invasion date of Poland at February 1, 1939, a month before Germany occupied the rump Czechoslovakia and started making demands on Danzig.
 

Straha

Banned
grrrrr... why does A WWII era WI get more hits then a thread on WI bestiality was socialyl acceptable? :eek: :mad:
 

Fiji

say, with the commies as the big bad guys ... could we get a TL where the Jewish problem is put on the back burner until the commies were dealt with?

(Far?) Less actions against Jews?
More Jews staying?
German science benefitting?

or had the persecution of the Jews advanced too much already?
 

aktarian

JimmyJimJam said:
I have a hard time picturing the West ever backing Hitler.
Click to expand...

Hear, hear. they would most likely do what Stalin did in OTL. Sit back and watch two biggest enemies slug it out. Meanwhile selling them what they wish and raking serious money.
 

Norman

aktarian said:
Hear, hear. they would most likely do what Stalin did in OTL. Sit back and watch two biggest enemies slug it out. Meanwhile selling them what they wish and raking serious money.
Click to expand...

I agree, but I think covert European aid would eventually going to the weaker, but with a tendency to support the germans, particularly if they (because they need western aid) don't start the holocaust. US aid would be going to who ever could pay for it.

This is the 'dream' TL of the west, their two biggest enemies slugging it out. But what about the internal politicsof England, France and the US? I suspect that Chamberlain's abilities would be more suited to this sort of political environment, so what does Churchill do, stay on the edges?

What about France? Do they now complete the Maginot Line? What about the internal 'Red Menace'? Do French communists joind the battle vis and vis the Spanish Civil War?

In the US, we have the german cultural groups raising funds and sending them to germany. Do they send volunteers? If so how does the press respond.
 

Brilliantlight

Banned
aktarian said:
Hear, hear. they would most likely do what Stalin did in OTL. Sit back and watch two biggest enemies slug it out. Meanwhile selling them what they wish and raking serious money.
Click to expand...

That is also quite possible.
 

Condottiero

By February 1939 we still have a Civil war going on in Spain, with republican forces supported by USSR and french sympaties and fascist forces supported by Germany and Italy and british sympaties... A second front?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top