In 487, Theodoric's armies were quite strong, as he had just taken control of the troops of Theodoric Strabo. Theodoric, looking to extort the emperor and increase his own power, put Constantinople under siege. OTL he and Zeno worked out a deal where Theodoric would move west and conquer Italy. But what if Theodoric had set his ambitions towards the eastern capital? Let's say he secures an alliance with the Vandals and uses their navy to blockade Constantinople’s ports. Could he have taken the city? Could he have held the city for long? If this much is plausible, what happens next? If Theodoric reigns until dying of old age, he would rule for the rest of OTL Zeno’s reign up until Justin’s reign.
WI/Plausibility check: Theodoric the Great takes Constantinople in 487
- Thread starter Collondi
- Start date
No takers? Guess I’ll clarify what make me wonder if this would really work
The main problem is the Roman army. Theodoric’s army apparently numbered 20,000 men. The ERE’s army must have been strong enough to defeat him. OTL Zeno did basically everything to get rid of the Ostrogoths except for actually fight them militarily, and I have no idea why. Of course there was the devastating Vandal campaign, but that was twenty years before the POD, surely they would have recovered by this point. A lot of the army is defending the eastern frontier, but the Persians aren’t yet strong enough to pose an actual threat to Rome.
Anyway if Theodoric taking over himself is implausible, how about a different scenario? What if he gave support to a usurper and had an ally take over?
The main problem is the Roman army. Theodoric’s army apparently numbered 20,000 men. The ERE’s army must have been strong enough to defeat him. OTL Zeno did basically everything to get rid of the Ostrogoths except for actually fight them militarily, and I have no idea why. Of course there was the devastating Vandal campaign, but that was twenty years before the POD, surely they would have recovered by this point. A lot of the army is defending the eastern frontier, but the Persians aren’t yet strong enough to pose an actual threat to Rome.
Anyway if Theodoric taking over himself is implausible, how about a different scenario? What if he gave support to a usurper and had an ally take over?
Theoderic as an Arian barbarian, wouldn’t have been able to declare himself emperor. If he really committed to it though, he could force Zeno to make him his magister militum and dominate the eastern empire aspar/ricimer style.
On the other hand, it might make the vulgus of Constantinople and the pope in Rome more likely to accept the henotikon if the politics of the eastern empire are dominated by arians- that would put Italy, Africa, Hispania and much of the Balkans under Arian rule, with Egypt and the Levant going into Monophysitism. The only chalcedonian kingdoms left would be… the franks?
On the other hand, it might make the vulgus of Constantinople and the pope in Rome more likely to accept the henotikon if the politics of the eastern empire are dominated by arians- that would put Italy, Africa, Hispania and much of the Balkans under Arian rule, with Egypt and the Levant going into Monophysitism. The only chalcedonian kingdoms left would be… the franks?
Yeah, Theodoric doesn't really have an easy way to make himself the Emperor, and he was bright enough to understand an Emperor that wants (and has/he's more than happy to) to buy him (and his time) off is better than anything else and an easy source of legitimacy and riches (and when he became lord of Italy, a secure eastern flank on top).
So what happens when Zeno dies? It’s likely in Theodoric’s best interest to ally with Longinus and help him overthrow Anastasius in exchange for keeping his political power. Given the amount of civil unrest in Constantinople during this time, even during the OTL reign of the mostly popular Anastasius, we could see a massive riot like the Nika riot 30 years earlier. How would that play out?
Motivation was a problem I was thinking about, specifically why Theodoric would choose not to invade Italy and instead try to take Constantinople when one option is clearly easier and more legitimate. I was thinking as our POD we could have Julius Nepos be able to retake control in the west (even if only for a little while), meaning Theodoric can’t get the kind of power he wants in a “legitimate” way, so why not stick around in the Balkans where his men are already comfortable
I've thought about writing a TL where either Theodoric or his namesake Theodoric Strabo captures and sacks Constantinople, and either a puppet Emperor is raised or perhaps some high ranking official in the eastern Provinces that have not been ravaged by the Ostrogoths proclaims himself Emperor, but either way both Theodorics both end up carving chunks of eastern territory for themselves.